Interesting links

1. David Friedman has a novel coming out.

2. Here is another good reason to have sex.

3. Contracts for everything, a’ la Mary Blige.

4. Long compound German nouns.

5. Bird flu, standing on one foot, by EffectMeasure.  Here is a good analysis of avian flu in cats.

6. How baseball statistics confuse the transient and the permanent, pointer from Robert Schwartz.

7. George Lucas: "I predict that by 2025 the average movie will cost only $15 million."

8. How to moderate a panel, pointer from Chris Masse.


I had a "Dear Prudie" reaction to your Bird Flu link. i.e. it could use some economic perspective. Efforts to stop a pandemic are not be a waste of time if we have positive real interest rates and those efforts can succeed in delaying the pandemic or slowing its spread.

Revere's second and third points are better.

I'm not sure about George Lucas's statement. Does he mean the average movie overall (then I'd probably buy it) or the average movie shown in a large public theater? Increasing home theater and television technology could easily create more and more of a bias for dialogue heavy (and hence cheaper) movies to be watched at home. This would reserve theatrical releases for the blockbusters with impressive special effects and high budgets.

Messrs Johnson and Yomtov. Of course a professional mathematician would find what Bill James has said to be trivial, and as they used to say in class before baffling me completely: "intuitively obvious to the most casual observer," or "the details of the proof are left as an exercise for the student." However, for the rest of us, the article was an interesting exploration of the limits of the kind of knowledge we can gain through statistics.

Long compound German nouns. The Master already discussed that and many other problems with the German language

As much as I like Bill James, the article by him just shows the reason that statistical analysis is best done by those with training in mathematical statistics.

Well...the problem is that most of the people doing statistical analysis in baseball aren't trained. And most of the people reading statistical analysis in baseball aren't trained.

So his conclusion is somewhat profound to his audience.

You can compound nouns in the same way in Swedish. Here's an example:

"Hundfångarbilsfabrikschefhatare". Meaning "a person who hates bosses of
factories making cars for dog-catchers". Don't you wonder how you managed to live your life without this knowledge before?

You will never words as these in reality of course.

I think George Lucas' estimate is a little high. I'd beleive $10 Million for two movie tickets, popcorn, soft drinks, and parking, but $15 Million seems high.

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