Markets in everything

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What are the odds (pun intended) that someone might place a big bet and then assassinate him? Is there a potential moral hazard problem here?

A moral problem with assassinating Castro? Wait... a problem? Like, as in, "something is not right here" problem? Hmm...

To add another point to EclectEcon's remark: What about asymmetric information?
Who says he isn't dead already? Peggy Noonan is in doubt about this:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110008741

What if the leader was Dick Cheney or Ariel Sharon? Why don't we see markets on their deaths? Are markets in some
individuals' deaths politically correct while others are not? Who decides?

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