Making Knightian uncertainty operational

Tell us how "Knightian uncertainty can be made operational"…

Knightian uncertainty is not usually important when you are playing the first twenty (or is it these days thirty?) moves of a Ruy Lopez in grandmaster chess.  When Knightian uncertainty matters, we should observe market participants investing more in opportunities for serendipitous discovery.  This might, for instance, mean buying new books on a lark, traveling randomly around the world in search of insight, and in general mimicking wunderkind Ben Casnocha.

Do you think Knightian uncertainty is important in labor markets?  If so, go out and hire some people on the basis of rumors.

Norton A. Myers’s new and excellent Happy Accidents: Serendipity in Modern Medical Breakthroughs: When Scientists Find What They’re NOT Looking For is one of the best books I know of on science.

#18 in a series of 50.


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