Month: October 2007

The Tyranny of the Market

A new book by my friend and Wharton colleague, Joel Waldfogel.  I’ve not read it yet, but based on our lunchtime conversations, I’m looking forward to it. (Hint: what does it take to get a free copy?)  Plus you’ve got to admire any book invoking the Rolling Stones in the title.

Joel has summarized the main arguments in his latest column at Slate.  Certainly a subtle and fascinating hypothesis about
how and when markets can fail us.  More commentary (from the Wharton writers) here.

George Will on Austan Goolsbee

It is rare that an Op-Ed is written praising an economist.  It makes many good points but there is one unjustified slap:

Goolsbee no doubt has lots of dubious ideas — he is, after all, a Democrat — about how government can creatively fiddle with the market’s allocation of wealth and opportunity.

Does the use of "no doubt" mean Will actually knows this?  But the next sentence comes and the piece closes on a different note altogether:

…he seems to be the sort of person — amiable, empirical and reasonable — you would want at the elbow of a Democratic president, if such there must be.

Markets in everything

There’s a hot market for demilitarized ICBM silos. There are three of
them on offer at eBay right now, with the asking price of $500,000 per
silo, which includes underground and above ground support facilities.
Hundreds of ICBM silos have been sold off in the last twenty years, as
new missile forces were reduced with the end of the Cold War, and the
enactment of arms reduction treaties.  Most of these are located in
remote areas.  For example, the three silo complex being offered on eBay
sits on 57 acres in central Washington State.

Here is further information

And while we are on the markets in everything topic, here is what Indians will do for you (if you pay them).

And here is a New Zealand market: lingerie for men (TC: clicking on this site is a mistake, please don’t do it, if only to avoid the music), who said small population and fixed costs limit product diversity (though they do ship by mail, how much of their business is Kiwi)? 

Thanks to several loyal MR readers for the pointers, at least one of them may wish to remain anonymous.

The Australian Labo(u)r Market

An interesting (and emphatic) broadside from Richard Freeman.  And this is no Country Doctor making it up on the fly: Richard has long understood the Australian labour market better than just about any other economist, and certainly better anyone outside Australia.  (Dan Hamermesh is a close runner-up.)

My $0.02: This is what happens when conservative governments confuse decentralization and deregulation.

In the shower with Robert Frank

I tend to listen to NPR while showering, and really enjoyed this morning’s interview with Robert Frank.  The interview draws heavily from his book, The Economic Naturalist – previous blogged about by Tyler, here and here.

Robert Frank’s observations on economics teaching will fundamentally change what I do in the classroom.  What he has to say is important.  Read it.  Here.

Yes, this was previously covered on MR (here and here).  But I am intrigued by Frank’s ambition in arguing that we need to emphasize the "deep" concepts of economics in a way that transforms how our students see the world.  We econ profs probably fail, and it is hard to see how to do better.  But it is worth doing.

Perhaps blogs like Marginal Revolution help one better see the world through an economists lens.  But most econ profs teach in the classroom, not the blogosphere, and so I want to ask: How can we do a better job teaching what is important, true and beautiful in economics? Comments open.  But a request: Please only comment if you have taken the time to read the Frank piece (this one).

How to sound smart around the water cooler

The baseball playoffs begin today. (Go Red Sox!)  But if you haven’t been following the 162-game season, you may risk sounding foolish around the water cooler.

Here’s how to sound like an expert: Research tells us that prediction markets yield accurate forecasts.  Indeed, a prediction market forecast is likely smarter than any expert.  Simply point your browser to your favorite prediction market, and make the following observations confidently around the water cooler:

  1. Note that the American League looks much stronger than the National League.  (HT: Mike Giberson at Midas Oracle.)
  2. Sigh, while you say that "Once again the American League race looks like being the Red Sox or the Yankees."
  3. State emphatically that "the National League is anyone’s race.  Heck, even the come-from-behind Phillies are a chance."  (Say this as though you didn’t already know they were the betting favorites)

That’s it.  You are now an expert.  (How else do you think an Aussie can keep up a conversation about U.S. sports? I’ve been faking it for years… but shhh, don’t tell David Stern.)

The Real Significance of Changes in the Gender Happiness Gap

A qualifier: None of these comparisons are entirely satisfactory.  For instance, if you believe that there is very little variation in happiness across people, time, or states of the economy, then you would interpret the above comparisons as suggesting that the change in the female happiness gap is big, only when compared with small things.

Another qualifier: We only document changes in the measured gender happiness gap.

Any other ideas on how to describe the "oomph" (or economic significance) of changes in qualitative variables like happiness?

[Thanks to Betsey Stevenson for coauthoring this post.]

UPDATE 1: Steve Levitt chimes in.

UPDATE 2: Jezebel adds some perspective.

Honestly, it’s embarrassing

I love my Nintendo Wii… And while I already look like a dork swinging imaginary tennis rackets you can be assured of a whole new level of dorkiness now that Dance Dance Revolution is available for the Wii.

But I won’t be alone.  I was visiting the San Francisco Fed two weeks ago, and a Wii was hooked up to a movie screen in the cafeteria.  This time it was Wii tennis, but think about the possibilities: next time dancing economists?

Two remaining questions:

Tyler Cowen gets mean and mad

I’ve now done a full review of Naomi Klein:

Most of the book is a
button-pressing, emotionally laden, whirlwind tour of global events
over the last 30 years: Katrina, the invasion of Iraq, torture in Chile,
the massacre in Tiananmen Square, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and
the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The book offers not so much
an argument but rather a Dadaesque juxtaposition of themes and
supposedly parallel developments in the global market. Above the
excited recitation stands Milton Friedman as the überdemon of the march
toward global tyranny and squalor…

Often Ms. Klein’s proffered
connections are so impressionistic and so reliant on a smarmy wink to
the knowing that it is impossible to present them, much less critique
them, in the short space of a book review…

Ms. Klein also tellingly remarked, "I believe people believe their own bullshit. Ideology can be a great enabler for greed."

When it comes to the best-selling "Shock Doctrine," that is perhaps the bottom line on what Klein herself has been up to.

Here is the full review; just imagine if I hadn’t liked the book!

How free market are economists?

…a group of economists at George Mason University, and other
prominent researchers, say this notion of a free-market mainstream is
oversimplified at best and inaccurate at worst.

“There’s really not any data, and there’s a caricature, that
economists are extremely free market,” said Tyler Cowen, a professor of
economics at George Mason who is popular in free-market and libertarian
circles. “I think the differences are overdrawn.”

My colleague Daniel Klein, the central focus of this article, has shown that economists’ views are quite mainstream and often closely aligned with the Democratic Party:

And Klein has numbers to back up his claims. Some of those numbers come in the form of party donations, similar to studies (some of which have also been done by Klein at George Mason) purporting to show political bias among professors in academe: For example, one Econ Journal Watch study
found a 5.1 to 1 ratio between contributors to the Democratic versus
Republican party among a sample of 2,000 members of the AEA. Klein
found similar lopsidedness in the authors and editors of journals
(including the Journal of Economic Literature) and even within the groups of people listed in authors’ acknowledgments in journal articles.

Read the whole thing, which also includes a debunking of the notion of heterodox economics.  Often the real dissent in economics comes from the free market side; left-wing heterodoxy is more aligned with the mainstream than it cares to admit.  The piece closes with some me:

“So, everyone in a debate always wants to call the other side
ideologues, essentially, and the critics of economics are doing that
here,” Cowen explained. “They like to think they’re on the outside,
there’s something new, they’re warring against some powerful authority.”

About theories that run counter to the neoclassical model, he said, “It’s a view that’s been with us for centuries.”

Canada v. U.S. on Health Care

Jason Shafrin, the Healthcare Economist, has a good review of the O’Neil and O’Neil NBER working paper, Health Status, Health Care and Inequality: Canada vs. the U.S.  (This paper was also mentioned by Tyler recently).

American are less healthy than Canadians. What this paper finds, however, is
that this is mainly due to the fact that the U.S. has a higher incidence of
disease. It turns out that Americans may have slightly higher access to
treatment than Canadians.

Read the full review.  Of course, the Canadian system is cheaper but very few people are willing to lobby for less health care.

Regression-heads

Probably influenced by Tyler’s post on Radiohead, my last post ended by providing computer code for "regression-heads" to replicate some numbers.  But what is the right term for those I just called (affectionately) regression-heads?

  1. Ian Ayres would call you a Super Cruncher
  2. Steve Levitt would suggest you are a Freakonomist
  3. If this were the Society for American Baseball Research you would be a Sabermetrician
  4. Our friends in finance would call you a quant.

Perhaps readers of this blog are Marginal Revolters?  Other ideas?

(Yes, I’ve heard Econometrician.)