Travis, a loyal MR reader, writes to me:
Given our culture and the political environment, both now and in the foreseeable future, what do you predict will be the next constitutional amendment and in what year do you think it will be passed (plus or minus five years)?…If forced to make a prediction, I would argue that between the years 2020 to 2025 there is a p=.25 that there will be some sort of constitutional amendment liberalizing same-sex marriage — at least giving same-sex couples equal rights and benefits that married couples currently receive but not necessarily allowing them to be officially "married".
I do not expect further amendments anytime soon but please tell me why I am wrong. Due to greater political competitiveness, it is harder to overcome the relevant hurdles than before, as there is always someone to fight on the other side or ask for a different version of the amendment. And the so-called "low-hanging fruit," such as repeal of Prohibition, seems to be gone. If I had to pick, I’ll predict some version of a recast Equal Rights Amendment but "nothing anytime soon" still remains a better prediction in my eyes.