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Not very many sports books at #3; I'll recommend Bill James' "The Politics of Glory" as a fantastic baseball book.

Let's here from your readers! Not too many suggestions in the original thread.

If I'm not mistaken, clicking on NYT links you provide does not effect 1OM20. My 20 only get reduced when I click the link directly from the NYT website. In short, thanks for the link. You are serving an important gatekeeper role.

I weep at the Gould references in #3.

7. There's a number of reasons why I believe the 1930s were the start of stagnation (if you believe such a thing happened). They are: the end of the Natural History Museum's Age of Exploration; the shift in focus of the World's Fair from innovation to culture; and a significant drop off in reading by boys.

1. Instead of interpreting this with caution I'm going to consider it further evidence in support of my theory: Larry Flint: History's Greatest Feminist

LOOK AT ME. I can read German!!

Does it really matter if there is 100% proof that porn reduces rape? The whole feminist position is that porn is "degrading" or "insulting" towards women. The "porn causes rape" argument was always just a way of dealing with the cognitive dissonance of left-wing feminists being as insufferable prudes as right wing conservatives... And the cognitive dissonance of believing you are free-speech and yet want to censor in the exact same way as the patriarchy you are fighting.

There is no way, ever, that feminist will in any way, shape, or form, be pro porn.

What about lesbian porn... and we don't need any details on the "way, shape, or form" thank you very much?

this line of thinking doesnt make sense. how can feminists think they are fighting for the freedom of women and be against voluntary exchange (i.e. women being paid for video shoots)? then again, feminists did attack housewives for being housewives before they finally conceded that it was an acceptable life choice.

Two points. There are many feminists who are pro porn. As per the general definition of a feminist, I am one of those people (I am a dude, but being a female is not a pre-requisite). Like the rest of humanity, feminists don't feel much need to bring it up in pleasant company. Of course, perhaps you think feminism is only women who hate anything that is tied to the female gender role. I wonder why you accept such a useless definition.

I wanted to comment on James C's response, but I couldn't find a way to properly state my disgust at the complete nonsense in his post. It assumes so much hubris that I couldn't start anywhere.

1. Spurious correlation based on looking at only 6 years of data, when there are decades available.

The forcible rape rate peaked in 1991-'92, along with all other forms of violent crime (and property crime for that matter). The decline has been steadily downward since then for all these crimes. Parsimony requires a single idea to account for this fall -- not necessarily an exogenous cause, but one thing.

Internet access did not approach commonness until 1994 or so, and internet porn even later, around 2000. That's when easy access to video clips of 30 seconds or so became available. Before then it either did not exist for the average user (search costs too high), or it was not very pornographic -- a nudie pic rather than a motion picture with explicit sex acts.

Focusing on the lower-class people who are the bulk of rapists, we need to shift these dates even more recently, since the early adopters of the internet and its porn offerings were more well-to-do. The average would-be rapist didn't have easy access to internet porn until around 2001 or 2002 -- a full decade after the peak in the rape rate.

Very true. I would contend that the internet (not so much porn) has done a lot to decrease violent crime. Many people have found emotional outlets online that they could not access before the internet. Just as you state though, this should not separate rape from other violent crimes, and my analysis is only anecdotal. I would love to see such a study performed in 10 or 15 years though!

Also, the emotional outlets on the internet may not always be healthy, but they are better than the alternative.

Wasn't this trend largely attributed to legalized abortion?

RE: #5

I note that the article does not consider whether fear of malpractice lawsuits might be a reason that doctors recommend less risky options to their patients than they would choose for themselves...

no. 5. No. CYA = risk aversion, bc lawsuits. Duh.

How about an obscure sports pick for number 3: The recent "Pacific Rims," a very funny book about basketball in the Philippines.

#5 Malpractice leads doctors to overprescribe and run frivolous tests. I don't it think it comes into play in that study because a) it's purely hypothetical and b) the doctors actually underprescribe in the flu scenario. I don't agree with the premise of the article though, my interpretation of the results is that when making decisions for yourself people tend to act emotionally and fear morbidity more than mortality (irrationally or not).

How about a less dramatic hypothesis that easy access to porn doesn't increase rape?

My non-researched hypothesis is that the decrease in rapes is due to the PERCEIVED greater likelihood of being caught: to which we can thank DNA testing. I have a suspicion that this perception (to which we can thank ubiquitous camera surveillance and CSI) is responsible for some of the drop in other categories. Big Brother is watching.

How well does that theory mesh with the fact that the vast majority of rapes are committed by people well known by the victim: Family members, boyfriends, friends of the family, etc?

Is there a way to establish the change of those rapes versus the "stranger in a parking garage" rapes?

Dan,

By the term "change", I'm assuming you mean statistically higher or lower in occurrence.

One would think the police reports of the crimes, at least in recent years would document that. The big variable would be in the difference between "reported" and "unreported". I'd guess a lot more "date rapes" and "family" abuses go unreported than random attack rapes by strangers.

"one with a higher risk of death, one with a higher risk of serious, lasting complications."

I can't tell which one is a greater risk from this.

What would you think of: "Higher risk of infanticide due to complications from colic."?

For myself I would much prefer a doctor who discusses treatment options lucidly, leaving it to the patient to make the final choice. i would not be comfortable with a doctor who steered me in a definite direction, unless there was truly no choice in the matter.

From the internet vs. rape files: the studies I have seen on the subject look at different counties rape statistics and adjust changes based on the rate of internet adoption to try to isolate the internet's porn-a-copia effect.

#5 So do tax professionals, lawyers, and probably anyone who carries malpractice risk. Do professors?

I wanted to comment on James C’s response, but I couldn’t find a way to properly state my disgust at the complete nonsense in his post. It assumes so much hubris that I couldn’t start anywhere.

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