Today’s weak GDP report bolsters the case that the debt ceiling debacle had real consequences.
In case you are feeling optimistic, remember: The optimistic GDP data tend to be revised toward the pessimistic GDI data. Not the reverse.
Why we should worry: The “recovery” has no momentum, shocks from Europe are coming, and fiscal drag will subtract substantially from growth.
The untold story of this recession: The many false signals given by US GDP data which have given false hope, leading policy mistakes.
The more reliable GDI data, US has grown at 0.3% rate over the past 2 quarters. Did we already double-dip? Certainly a per-capita recession.