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South Korean shares tumble 4.87% following announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death

The link is here.  And from the comments:

Korean defence stocks jumped and reached the 15% daily limit:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-19/speco-south-korea-defense-stocks-jump-after-death-of-leader-kim-jong-il.html

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Hussein: 69. Gaddafi: 69. Kim Jong Il: 69.

I guess Castro got lucky.

though Kim Jong Il was actually 70, despite what N Korea and his official biography will tell you. He was born in Siberia while his parents were in exile.

It's certainly a historical oddity that one of the last bastions of Communist sits just off our shores.

Maybe that's the reason. The insistence on maintaining the embargo of Cuba has increased the regime's longevity.

Yep... the ironic thing is that Cuba is trying to pull a China: Keep the repressive totalitarian police state while making free market reforms. The United States is actually the biggest obstacle against Cuba becoming a free-market economy.

Not related to this post, but markets in everything? http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2011/12/16/dnt-crack-shirt.khou

Korean defence stocks jumped and reached the 15% daily limit:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-19/speco-south-korea-defense-stocks-jump-after-death-of-leader-kim-jong-il.html

Power vacuums are de-stabilizing, and some thug will have to prove his toughness against a readily available victim. He won't want to start a real conflict, but if enough sub-thugs believe the saber-rattling it could get out of hand. At least the probability is higher than it was yesterday, which leads me to a question I've been wondering. This was going to happen eventually, so why wasn't it discounted? Is the stock jump essentially the price of the known risk today versus the unknown risk at the unknown future date?

The thug you know better than the thug you don't?

Well, the thug you know is probably better than redoing the process that led to the thug you know.

Reflecting the standard observation that most family-owned firms survival rate diminishes with each succeeding generation....

Or, better the lunatic you know....

I get the feeling that Raul Castro and everyone else in Cuba are politely waiting for Fidel to die before they go put everything back the way it was before the revolution (minus the imperialism).

However he does have the advantage of not being brainwashed form birth...

I'm not here to support Fidel but I'm not sure prerevolutionary Cuba would be a massive improvement. Trading one dictatorship for another?

At least Batista was a 'mulatto' man from a poor working class background... as opposed to an upper-middle-class white elite like Castro. Thus, Batista, while a military strongman, he supported redistributing land to the peasants, where as privileged Castro Marxist intellectuals saw themselves "helping the people" by running everything.

When are people going to learn that the best government is a CBBBocracy?

Batista may have been a dictator, but it was still a massive improvement. After all, he was legitimately elected at least once. Cuba at the time had a positive rate of net immigration even with some western european countries. Despite popular mythology, he received some of his strongest support at one time from the communist party and the union membership rate was higher than in the U.S. Not everyone would consider those good things, of course.

How do you know they won't be all "ding dong, the witch is dead"?

Because they won't be. There was always MUCH more then just KJI running the show there, in fact it's not clear how much power he actually held. North Korea is not a prison built by Kim Jong Ill but by the North Korean population in general who willingly subject themselves to this in the name of racism and extreme nationalism.

Those must be pretty determined people. My stomach would have over ruled my willingness to subject myself to that sort of stuff long ago.

Nationalism is the strongest force in the world

Hmmm...I wonder what that says about the believers. Vox EU has a new post about household beliefs and financial decisions- particularly decisions about investments. http://bit.ly/vnSZQp

Stories like this always make me wonder if the N Korean elite are secretly buying and selling S Korean stocks to arbitrage their information advantage.

Perhaps the regime hedging against itself?

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