Why I think the Mexican government is winning the drug war

Mexico is still growing, and quite robustly, even after the drug lords have given it their best shot.  The currency is up over nine percent this year.

If Mexico keeps on getting richer, and the drug lords keep on killing each other, eventually Mexico will win.  Think rates of return, or think of government revenue as rising over time.  I’m not saying the drug problem will ever disappear there.

Murder rates have stabilized or fallen in some key northern cities, including Juarez.  Sending in the army seems to yield returns, in light of scared and corrupt local police forces.

Both the American recovery and the slowdown in China, combined with higher Chinese wages, will help Mexico and thus help the government against the drug gangs.

I fully admit this is speculation on my part, but it is my view.


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