From the NYTimes:
President Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage on Wednesday was by any measure a watershed.
…Mr. Obama faces considerable risk in jumping into this debate, reluctantly or not, in the heat of what is expected to be a close election.
As of today, however, Intrade shrugged it off; that could mean the issue won’t play much of a role or that the political forces are equally balanced but that volatility could be higher in the future. My guess is the former, a lot of talk but when it comes to swing votes no action. We have come a long way.