Ukraine seems to win the “next financial crisis” award

And they win the award by having a much larger crisis overall.  Russia has suspended financial aid to Ukraine.  There are rumors of runs on banks and long queues at ATMs.  There are rumors of Ukraine possibly splitting into two countries.  Here is a NYT Q&A.

Here is the one-year CDS chart.  The Russian ruble is declining to record lows.

Here are interesting remarks from Timothy Garton Ash.:

I have argued that, in our time, 1989 supplanted 1789 as the default model of revolution. Rather than progressive radicalization, violence and the guillotine, we look for peaceful mass protest followed by negotiated transition. That model has taken a battering of late, not only in Ukraine but also in the violent fall that followed the Arab Spring.

When the Soviet Union first split apart, I expected something like the current scenario to happen rather quickly.  Obviously it did not.  It is interesting to ponder what assumptions are required to produce a 25-year lag for a similar result.

If you know of interesting or good sources on what is happening in Ukraine, please leave them in the comments.


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