Hugo Dixon has a good analysis:
My instant reaction to Alexis Tsipras’ decision to call a referendum on whether to accept creditors’ terms on Jul 5
1 Tsipras is effectively calling for Greece to quit the euro. Even if that’s not the question, that’s what it will amount to.
2 All sides have mishandled negotiation but Tsipras has mishandled it particularly badly.
3 Tsipras didn’t even complete the talks and wring out the last concessions. There was one more day to go.
4 Greece obviously won’t be able to pay the IMF on Tuesday.
5 Greece won’t be able to get extension of bailout which runs out on Tuesday, as referendum is following Sunday. Ie bailout expires.
6 ECB highly likely to stop emergency liquidity to banks. if capital controls not imposed on Monday, there will probably be bank run.
I would put it this way: when you call for a referendum in this kind of setting, you suffer all the costs of having to take a stance, and yet give up all of the potential benefits of control.
There are already reports of long lines at Greek ATMs. What’s the chance the Greferendum even ends up happening? As I’ve said before, the only thing worse than the Very Serious People are the Not Very Serious People.