Six thoughts about the Yuan devaluation

1. The Australian and Singaporean dollars are weakening, as are many emerging market currencies.  Take this to be a signal of Chinese weakness.  Overall this is a sign of surrender to the market.

2. Offshore-RMB is down more than the size of the devaluation, a clear sign the market believes the currency will continue to decline in value.  Take this to be a signal of Chinese weakness.

3. “Gold related stocks” are being called “the biggest winner.”  Take this to be a signal of global weakness.  Commodity prices are falling and there is a general flight to safety.

4. A panicky flight of capital still is not the most likely scenario for China.  Still, the chance of that scenario just went up, and the leadership knows this, thus the negative signal about underlying economic conditions.  That exchange rate “currency wars” stimulus really must be needed.

5. There has never been a better time to visit China.  As for Chinese leaving the country to finance Paris and Bangkok, the index of Chinese airline stocks just fell 9.6 percent.

6. U.S. monetary policy just got harder, that is the dollar is up once again.

A summary of the currency move is here, I believe it is the single biggest drop in the modern history of the Chinese currency.

Addendum: Here are thoughts from Christopher Balding.


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