Surprisingly, two variables can explain 38% of the metro area variation in the single-family growth from 2000 to 2004 to today: the number of jobs today relative to 2000 to 2004, and single-family house prices relative to the prerecession peak. The change in the unemployment rate had no statistically discernable effect.
Both measures have an intuitive relationship with the housing market. What these results suggest is that net job growth may not be enough to drive a single-family recovery. Instead, long-lasting scars from the housing bubble remain an issue.
That is from Adam Ozimek.