Nigerian economic growth is slowing down

…the World Bank said Nigeria’s economic growth slid to 2.8% in 2015 from 6.3% the year before, and the International Monetary Fund says this year’s growth will slip to 2.3%, slower than the population, which adds 13,000 people daily.

Factories are closing because they can’t find dollars to import parts. Supermarkets are struggling to keep shelves stocked. Power plants have virtually stopped producing electricity because they can’t pay for maintenance. New shopping malls are empty and ordinary citizens are going to lengths to find some basic goods.

…on the streets, daily frustrations are mounting. Electricity is so scarce that the country’s national power plants didn’t produce a single watt for several days last week—they couldn’t import parts and services, said two senior members of Mr. Buhari’s administration. Internet providers face similar woes.

Nigerians abroad are stuck with ATM cards they can’t use because the central bank has limited withdrawals outside the country. Bitcoin trades are up as Nigerian professionals scrounge for ways to move money—and increasingly, themselves—out of the country.

Here is the Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson WSJ story.

Comments

This time I think Tyler's pessimism is warranted. The deflation of the last 7-8 years has really hit 3rd world commodity heavy countries hard, especially in Africa. No bueno right now.

Awareness of these sorts of situations is part of the reason that I tried to get into parts supply (more in agricultural equipment) in West Africa. It turns out, there are pretty good reasons that most cannot be bothered to serve the market. Lots of risk (of diverse types), very low margins, and all sorts of formal and informal barriers to trade. Maybe some Chinese can be bothered, with a long-term view to having access to the market once things are actually worthwhile.

Nigeria was the most vocal country in Africa about keeping China at bay. There are still major projects between China and Nigeria but it could have been at least 2-times more going on.

The most successful African economies currently are those that have had the most comprehensive relationships with China like in East Africa, Zambia, and a few other places.

When your economy has two dozen Chinese engineering contractors ferociously bidding against each other to construct roads in farming provinces without many roads and purchases a high volume of capital and consumer goods (electricity equipment and mobile phones) productivity gains will be immense in areas like agriculture and economic growth can continue.

I don't think the evidence is there to support your claims. Nigeria was one of the biggest economic success stories in Africa up until now, and even with the current problems, it is not clear that any of the nations you mention are doing better.

Zambia has a lower per capita GDP than Nigeria, as do most of the East African countries. Also many of those countries are currently in crisis as well (including Zambia--just in the news today: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/world/africa/zambia-drought-climate-change-economy.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1)

Interesting that the NYT chooses to pitch that story specifically as a climate change phenomenon when it is specifically due to El Nino. As far as I know, the link between AGW and El Nino is not particularly well understood. Wish that the article had said a bit more about that.

A classic NYT article topic is "Bad things are happening due to climate change and X!" where if you read the article you discover X is the immediate cause.

There have been several articles like this that try to stoke fears of rising sea levels, but when you read the article closely you discover that the ground sinking in the location in question is the real problem.

You can clip the ? and everything after in a URL like that, and probably should because it is your tracking information.

I see an article about regional draught and regional warming under climate models, not something about land sinking.

Take the oil out of the equation and see what sort of economic success story you're left with.

You gotta love such a perfect answer.

Thanks.

It should be noted, however, that most of the non-oil economy in Nigeria is not represented in the stock index, so the graph exaggerates the situation to a degree.

So resource-rich Nigeria has so far failed to effectively emulate the "developed" world. It is Nigeria, after all. Why should it be expected to exactly follow the western model?

Clearly what Nigeria needs is immigrants, preferably refugees from war torn countries. Perhaps a couple million immigrants will bring their economy back to life. At least the studies show this is true...

I guess most emigrants want to go to a country a little bit better than their own, thus that excludes NIgeria lool

Kenya received over a million refugees from war torn Somalia. It's a source of a lot of security problems including terrorism but the integration of such a large wave of refugees has been considered an economic boon for Kenya. Somalis are well assimilated with the current foreign minister being Somali-Kenyan.

After a group of Somali terrorists kill scores of people in the Westgate Mall attack in 2013, there were no groups of right wing thugs prowling on the streets of Nairobi looking to attack Somalis unlike in Brussels (Note: Somalis are physically different in appearance from Kenyans.) In fact the Westgate terrorist attack brought the country closer as a multicultural society. Because so many Kenyans of Indian origins died in the attack, it transformed their sense of identity, they saw themselves as rooted more in Kenya because of the bloodshed.

Wow! Lets send a couple million more and Kenya will become the worlds economic super power.

Yeah those bastard right wingers in Brussels they are supposed to lie down and take it don'tcha know. No fighting back, now go and play nice.

Were those right wing extremists beating up terrorists? Or were they beating up minorities? Yes, they are bastards for committing mob violence.

More Somalia refugees will help maintain Kenya's long term growth.

Borders in the region are porous and when there is war people indeed often do go to safer places. A dollar or two per checkpoint is often a sufficient for those with insufficient ID, often including formal border points. It is not altogether unreasonable considering that quite a lot of people in West Africa do not have a birth certificate and therefore will simply never be able to access proper ID.

If the adjectival form of Nigeria is Nigerian, what is the adjectival form of Niger? It is nigerien. So saith dictionary.com, but my spell check doesn't believe that and puts a big red line under it. Blame it on the French.

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