China estimate of the day

China’s “augmented fiscal deficit” (i.e. off-budget items included) has climbed to nearly 15% of GDP


That is from Goldman Sachs, via Simon Rabinowitz.


For comparison:

In retrospect, it's pretty incredible that budget deficits in the mid 1930s barely broke 5% of GDP and that even in 1931 we nearly balanced the budget.

The budget deficits at the depths of the Great Depression were much smaller than in Obama's first term.

As for China, what exactly is counted in the "off budget" items? Are these capital investments or secret military projects?


"The budget deficits at the depths of the Great Depression were much smaller than in Obama’s first term"

Obama's first term deficits matched Lincoln's in the Civil War. Pretty astounding when you think about it.

The dismal recovery in the face of gigantic deficits should tell you that the world has changed. For some insights see

The data is not in constant dollars and is not a percent of GDP. However, the pattern should be clear.

Thank you. Are those also "augmented" figures?


July data is very weak.
Credit is practically the only driver of the Chinese economy.
GDP data remains incredibly suspect.
FX data is incredibly difficult to reconcile.
Worrying that credit explosion having so little impact on real economic activity.
Decline in exports and imports is not just related to low global demand and anyone who says so is lying.
Corporate revenue in Chinese industry is bad in 2016.
Retail numbers are bogus.

It seems the flow of cash into west coast real estate has slowed down a bit. Chinese banks are suing to seize assets where money was borrowed and taken out of country for real estate purchases.

Seems that if you include US Social Security future obligations it would be the same for the USA (SSA: "Currently, the Social Security Board of Trustees projects program cost to rise by 2035 so that taxes will be enough to pay for only 75 percent of scheduled benefits")

Thanks for the link. BTW his name is Simon Rabinovitch.

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