Germany fact of the day

Germany recorded an almost 10 per cent drop in crime last year to its lowest level since the early 1990s despite perceptions that the arrival of more than a million asylum seekers would lead to a rise in offences.

…Overall, violent crime was down by 1.7 per cent last year, the Interior Ministry said, although refugees and asylum seekers were proportionately over-represented in sexual assault cases.

Here is the (gated) Times of London piece.  Ahem…

For the pointer I thank a loyal MR reader.

Comments

I would say that that's an alleged fact. Governments have been known to alter statistics as desired on occasion.

And the VW diesel beat all the environmental standards for years until the truth came out. Yeah I believe the government stats, LOL.

VW = German govt LOL

If the results went the other way, would you change your tune? I suspect so.

Dim Jim, you think that constitutes an argument? You should be looking at motive, opportunity, and propensity. I don't know if those statistics are cooked, and neither do you, but it wouldn't surprise me.

And if you read German, you can a much better breakdown, including a variety of points in which the numbers can be looked at. Such as how Frankfurt is not a particularly dangerous city in terms of number of 'Straftaten,' because all the variety of criminal offenses at the Frankfurt Airport (think whatever variety of smuggling, for a trivial example) are counted as part of Frankfurt's statistics.

Last year, murders were up, but compared to an increase in drug crimes - 9.2% - not notably. And German criminal statistics include things like illegal dumping - for example, a town will make a police report if its workers find a couple of couches left somewhere.
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/Kriminalstatistik-2017-Die-neuesten-Zahlen-und-was-sie-belegen,kriminalstatistik-2018-100.html

Murders are up, but drug crimes even more as well so its fine? Nice logic.
Interestingly you didnt cite from your article that the statistics are more or less junk and you cannot use them to make YoY comparisons..

'Murders are up, but drug crimes even more'

That comparison between the rise in murders compared to the rise in drug crimes is an observation. Further, a major reason for the drug crime increase is increased drug crime enforcement in Thuringia.

'that the statistics are more or less junk'

Most people here do not read German, and the point was not that the statistics are junk, but that they are complex (see above about Thuringia or below about Frankfurt).

'and you cannot use them to make YoY comparisons'

See below - also in German, admittedly.

Interesting to compare it to the early 90s... I mean in the 90s Germany had a massive wave of refugees too (even bigger than now?). In addition, maybe the dissolution to communism lead to more crime (see what happened in Russia in the 90s and how crime went down there). Finally, of course the population has further aged.
The facts are, the recent "refugee" influx lead to an increase in crime and they are massive overrepresented.

'The facts are, the recent "refugee" influx lead to an increase in crime and they are massive overrepresented.'

Some crimes, not others. As one would expect when a large group of single men without attachments to Germany arrives - or is stationed here. You used the 90s - an even better, closer to 1 to 1 demographic comparison is from the 1970s.

Of course, back then, the statistics were also a bit less than reliable. NATO basing agreements meant American soldiers could only be prosecuted by Germany if the U.S. agreed, and there was interest on both sides to keep the statistics as low as possible when looking at a distinct demographic group who arrived in Germany without speaking the language, and without any long term desire to become integrated into German society.

Exactly that is the point. Germans expected to help real refugees - the most vulnerable people in war - women, older people, minorities with a danger of ethnic cleaning... instead young men from north africa come who start rape festivals during local festivites.

Just like the person below talking about Merkel and no-go zones, links are needed. What happened in Köln and Hamburg, for example, did not involve a single case of rape - lots of assaults related to stealing purses and sexual grabbing ('grapschen' is not easily translated in some ways, at least as it is used around here to describe a normal Fasching occurence).

Grapschen -- I'd translate that as "groping" or "pawing (at someone)" but I don't have the social context to understand it better (i.e. no clue about it's relationship to carnival etc.)

Groping sounds acceptable, pawing not so much. What happened in Köln was a mixture between theft and groping, where the group of men surrounding a woman to steal her property also took advantage to grope various parts of her body.

And the number of cases that occurred in Köln New Year's was trivial compared to what goes on in that city during Fasching.

From what I understand from women, drunk native German men during Fasching is a more than sufficient reason to avoid such traditional events

well officially they said sexual assaults (sexuelle noetigung). And your statement about german men and fasching is so far away from thr reality that it simply absurd. Btw at the karneval after the tragedy of new years eve there was one rape in cologne - comitted by an afghan refugee

'about german men and fasching is so far away from thr reality that it simply absurd'

Do you ever talk to any German women? The ones I know from this region (call it northern Black Forest as compared to the Rheinebene) mention how routine it is to be repeatedly groped when in a large group of drunken people in costumes. Of course, considering how extensive both the costumes and crowds can be, maybe some of the gropers are female. Definitely the people groping men are overwhelmingly female - and they are often just as serious as the men in intent.

However, It is certainly true that there is no real groping going on during something like Karlsruhe's Tuesday Fastnachtsumzug. Maybe you are not as familiar with what happens during Fasching in smaller places that never makes the TV coverage like Mainz does?

Groping is not rape, and no rapes happened New Year's in Köln. And notice that I did not mention Oktoberfest, because I don't really have any personal experience connected to large groups of drunken strangers in that context.

You want to know one of the 'fun' things that is common in this general region? Grabbing teenage girls, binding their hands, and committing various 'pranks' on them before leaving them tied to a streetlight. Why yes, Rastatt is quite traditional in its Fasching parade, as this has happened each time I have been over the years (it also happens in plenty of the parades in smaller towns in this region too). Though no one around here is this stupid, the vicitm was from around here - 'Nach dem Heißwasser-Unfall mit einem Hexenkessel bei einem Fastnachtsumzug in Eppingen wollen die Ermittler den genauen Hergang rekonstruieren. Die Polizei will unter anderem die beteiligten Hexen-Darstellerinnen befragen, deren Personalien inzwischen feststehen. Es muss noch geklärt werden, wer innerhalb der Gruppe was getan hat. Bei der Veranstaltung am Samstag war eine 18-Jährige schwer an den Beinen verbrüht worden.

Die junge Frau, die in einer Spezialklinik liegt, wollen die Ermittler auch befragen. Es ist nach Polizeiauskunft aber noch nicht sicher, ob sie schon vernommen werden kann. Die junge Frau aus Rheinstetten bei Karlsruhe zog sich Verbrühungen oder Verbrennungen zweiten Grades zu. Sie muss laut Polizei wohl ein bis zwei Wochen in der Klinik bleiben. Über den aktuellen Stand der Ermittlungen will die Stadt am Dienstag um 18 Uhr im Rathaus von Eppingen (Kreis Heilbronn) informieren.

Nach Angaben der Beamten wurde der Behälter mit integriertem Holzofen von einer Hexenzunft auf einem Wagen gezogen. Eine Gruppe von Zuschauern habe mit den Narren gescherzt und ihnen die junge Frau zum Spaß übergeben - die Hexen hoben die 18-Jährige dann über den Kessel.' https://www.stuttgarter-nachrichten.de/inhalt.frau-ueber-hexenkessel-gehalten-polizei-will-opfer-und-zeugen-befragen.e1de3890-f7bf-4eb5-9586-b3a1fee773e5.html

I suspect we may be discussing differences in details - to me, Fasching is much more than a single parade, it is also all the events that go on through the night. Köln's Fasching reputation is more or less of a days long non-stop party that involves all sorts of interactions of the variety one would expect from drunken people who hope to indulge in all the pleasures of the flesh mentioned in the condom advertising that is so prominent during Fasching. I personally cannot imagine that it is so different from what goes on around here, to be honest.

yes, talked to lot of german girls, especially those who lived abroad. My partner, north african french, loved germany as she found it so much safer than in france (but is is slowly changing due to refugees). she finds german men much more shy and reserved than people from the south. Btw you can wikipedia the article about new years eve - it talks about sexuelle Noetigung... not grapschen

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/br-valla-swedish-festival-cancelled-2018-rape-sexual-assault-reports-lineup-organisers-police-a7822331.html
I guess nothing to see her, too - just german men... same as rotterham and others.

In Britain it has been found that recorded crime stats do not agree well with estimates of crime rates based on interviewing samples of the population.

I might believe recorded homicide rates; for lesser stuff I remain sceptical.

There has been a downward trend in violent crime in many countries. One can infer from the excerpt that sex crimes in Germany would have been down even more if it were not for immigration.

Sure - whenever you have hundreds of thousands of single men with time on their hands, you have the problems associated with that group. Till now, compared to the last period when hundreds of thousands of single men were found in Germany, the last couple of years is not notably different.

Including racism in terms of skin color - American soldiers with black skin back then were seen in roughly the same light as black skinned refugees today. The sort of thing that a number of commenters here would likely approve of, based on their personal understanding of Rassenhygiene, in the homeland of that term's birth.

Germans are not too fond of people of different races...stunning.

The thread already shows one of the insidious trends of our time. If the facts don't fit your priors, deny the facts. It's scary if the various 'tribes' can't even agree on the reality they are discussing.

More partisan bullshit. You can be sure that Jim Craig and dearieme would readily accept government stats that fit their narratives. And before you get pissy, both sides do this now. But maybe some more than others.

My mistake, Jim Clay

Should be pretty easy to verify.

1) prior to 2010, how well do the victimization surveys track police statistics?

2) how well do they track now?

Ahem, Calling prior approval to be stand please. Seems like he would be all over this topic.

See above.

But what stand? The facts speak for themselves, at least when one accepts the sort of complexities pointed in the German reporting. And those facts include the sort of points brought up by others - this is normal discussion in Germany, basically, the assumption being that informed people can actually deal with each other intelligently. In large part by agreeing that facts encompass reality, without spending all their time attempting to dismiss facts they would rather not acknowledge.

Exactly, like when the AfD wanted to debate whether hate speech is illegal against germans. The CDU said "AfD you are stupid of course it is". Their partner SPD said "AfD you are stupid of course it is not as hate speech only protects minorities". The sort of conflicting opinions of the ruling parties then got resolved by jusy going ahead with the usual - insulting th AfD and calling them racists https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article175898793/Bundestagsdebatte-Kann-man-Hetze-gegen-Deutsche-bestrafen.html

'ike when the AfD wanted to debate whether hate speech is illegal against germans.'

Of course hate speech is illegal against Germans. If I was to publicly state that AfD members should be killed, that would clearly by hate speech and illegal.

'insulting th AfD and calling them racists'
Insults are not hate speech, and let us be honest, if you cannot find anything to insult about a politician or party, you are simply lazy. Writing that Jews should be killed is hate speech - saying that Jews are always greedy is merely tasteless, and not hate speech. (Yes, a complicated discussion - if one reuses Nazi terminology as an 'opinion,' it is a real grey area, obviously.)

And really, the CDU and the SPD have different opinions? Who cares? Such legal questions are decided by the courts, unless the law is changed.

Incorrect. If I say "Germans are dogs" nothing happens. But saying "Turks are dogs" is hate speech and llegal. So the AfD actually has a point, and the CDU and you, seem to agree with them on this... but the CDU just denies what the current law states and then insults them. In contrast the other parties defend the abhorrent law and then insult the AfD...https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksverhetzung

According to the CDU, you are wrong. According to the SPD, you are right. Please provide a legal decision that shows that the CDU is wrong.

'but the CDU just denies what the current law states'

As Jung notes, please give an example where a German judge has decided on the issue.

see the Wikipedia article that I linked under the last section

I did - there is no legal decision listed.

The only thing listed was a prosecutor deciding to drop charges, something that happens all the time for any number of reasons - 'Am 15. Februar 2017 stellte die Hamburger Staatsanwaltschaft das Ermittlungsverfahren gegen ein Vorstandsmitglied des Türkischen Elternbunds Hamburg ein, der die Deutschen als „Köterrasse“ bezeichnet hatte.'

That is not a judge's decision, and does not set any precedent. Any other Staatsanwaltschaft in Germany is free to press charges if someone was to insult Germans as a group. After the legal decision from a judge in such a case (up to the Verfassungsgericht, quite possibly), one can then say whether it is possible to be charged and found guilty of insulting Germans.

Jung is still correct, as of today.

first sentence states "ist nicht anwendbar bei Anstachelung zum Hass gegen das Deutsche Volk". I as a German am not protected, so if I file charges it will directly be dismissed like it happened here and in many other cases.

According to Jonathan Haidt, when we agree with something, we apply the “Can I believe it?” filter, but if we disagree, we adopt the “Must I believe it?” filter.

This has turned into an "only Nixon can go to China" kind of a situation. You can trust me to give you the correct facts ONLY when they happen go against my preferred narrative. Otherwise... well, too many of us are willing to spin for the good of the team.

Interesting take, maybe so.

The timing and magnitude of the drop is pretty suspicious:

http://amp.dw.com/image/43695764_401.png

You can believe that 2017 had a massive, unprecedented drop in crime for no reason. I think it's more likely to be Chicago-style "disappearing" of crime.

+1

One of the most insidious trends in our time is how people declare the claims made by their side to be "facts"and accept them uncritically, despite what should be glaring red flags. A 10 percent decrease in a single year? That's like GDP growing by 10 percent in a year in an industrialized country, unbelievable. As in, I don't believe it. And one should ask why the total crime rate fell so much faster than the violent crime rate. An easy explanation is that it's harder to "disappear" violent crime than other categories of crime, particularly public order offenses. As with Chicago, this will be exposed in due time, and all the people hawking this "fact" will acknowledge their mistake. JK on the last part.

And note about the violent crime rate that the 1.7% decrease in 2017 followed a 10% increase in 2015 and 2016. 90% of the increase was attributed to the "refugees."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-crime/violent-crime-rises-in-germany-and-is-attributed-to-refugees-idUSKBN1ES16J

The 1.7% decrease is probably real, reflecting a return to the secular decline in crime rates seen before the Merkel influx. But you can count on the lying press to use the decrease in the year when the influx stopped to "prove" the influx didn't raise the crime rate.

Thanks for the perfect example

Outside of the last sentence, this was the only comment that really put things succinctly into context. Just the facts, ma'am.

Hazel Meade parachuted in, chloroformed the guards, and edited the hard drives.

While suspended from the ceiling of course.

Naked!

"guards"

You greatly overestimate the security of government buildings.

Have you broken into the White House or the Pentagon, you know, government buildings? You seem like a smart guy .... not!! More like a cuck!

"Overall, violent crime was down by 1.7 per cent last year, the Interior Ministry said, although refugees and asylum seekers were proportionately over-represented in sexual assault cases."

It is funny how my home state experienced a 60% fall in homicides, but no one cares. Why would anyome care? We never invaded Poland!!

senor ribby
sometimes its not always about brazil
its a journey
"refugees and asylum seekers were proportionately over-represented in sexual assault cases."
what are we to make of this incoherent narrative?
over represented as perpetrators or victims or both.
how overrepresented?
why do they use the word overrepresented?
the word overrepresented doesn't go with sexual assault does it?
not like teak and crème more like chalk and reallysmelly cheese

"sometimes its not always about brazil": splitter!

Sorry if I am pointing out your systematic racism.

Everybody knows that the level of sexual assaults in Europe would be vastly lower - by the tens of thousands, probably - if Europeans clearly told non-Europeans - you can come here, from your vicious countries, where you were in fear, because, let's face it, they were not countries where justice is considered important, and we feel compassion for you - but, that being said, remember that you are here because we felt compassion for you, not because we wanted you here, and you simply cannot let your ugly unloveable incel stupid fellow non-Europeans try, when it is convenient to them, to molest or rape our wives and daughters.

Europeans are viciously and cold-heartedly wrong to allow even a single rape or sexual assault of the local women (or men) from the people they are kind enough to give refuge to. By that statistic, Angela Merkel, who is not exactly the sort of person who one thinks of as kind, and is herself a woman without children, is , from a reasonable person's point of view, an international criminal, the most cold-hearted German leader in half a century, and she will be lucky if she is not, some day, prosecuted for her actions in violation of international law. You see, rape victims are the sort of people whom the Lord describes as "those who cry out for justice". And God listens to those cries for justice. And poor childless Angela - she knows this - ignored those rape victims who cried out for justice, in the pride of her heart. God have mercy on her cold-hearted soul.

Maybe Europeans should stop invading/bombing those countries, then you wouldn't have a refugee problem. Its a little too convenient to shake off responsibility and accountability for one's actions.

'by the tens of thousands, probably - if Europeans clearly told non-Europeans - you can come here, from your vicious countries, where you were in fear, because, let's face it, they were not countries where justice is considered important, and we feel compassion for you '

Sure, but the hundreds of thousands of American soldiers stationed in Europe during the Cold War came anyways.

"the hundreds of thousands of American soldiers..."

I guess you mention that because it's the same thing.

In the sense that a group of single men arrived in Germany without much connection to German society, and as one would expect from that age cohort, committed a number of crimes? Quite comparable, if not the same thing, of course. Due to the NATO basing agreements, American soldiers were beyond prosecution by German authorities, for example.

And I left out the Soviets, as I'm sure we can both agree that the DDR's statistics in this area of fraternal brotherhood would be pure fiction, though of course, the Soviets likely had similar statistics. After adjusting for the fact that Soviet soldiers had nowhere the same degree of freedom.

However, the East Germans had a considerably lower opinion of Russian soldiers than West Germans did of American soldiers, if that makes you feel better when comparing two similar demographic groups, and their interactions with German society.

"and you simply cannot let your ugly unloveable incel stupid fellow non-Europeans try, when it is convenient to them, to molest or rape our wives and daughters."
That's what domestic incels are praised for, in North America.

Not by me.

I despise violent criminals.

So do you, right? Aren't we all aghast at the people who praise criminals?

"Aren't we all aghast at the people who praise criminals?"
Who are "we all"? I have heard we need more sexual redistribution because women distribute in a very unfair way their... largesse. It is a market failure thing, I am told.

I support the death penalty for rapists.

Don't you? would you not support the death penalty for some incel who decided he had the right to rape your daughter, and used his access to weapons to act on that stupid opinion of his that your daughter was his to rape?

If you did not, would you not be wrong?

Hang em high ! you agree, don't you?

"would you not support the death penalty for some incel who decided he had the right to rape your daughter, and used his access to weapons to act on that stupid opinion of his that your daughter was his to rape?"

It hardly matters the identity of the victim of such a brutal crime. In Brazil, the Law is the same for all. Compare and contrast with unarmed Blacks being shot at sight in America. I would surely support applying the death penalty IF it were legally possible, which is not, except in time of war, since the 1889 Revolution. Even before that, our last Emperor spent his last decades commuting all death sentences to life sentences since a judicial error sentenced an innocent man to death. Brazil was one of the first countries to abolish the death penalty and most Brazilians, right or wrong, oppose such a punishment. Maybe, as a consewuence of such culture of life, I never heard of Brazilian incels or Brazilian economists preaching the redistribution of women's... favors. In Brazil, that is strictly the business of criminals... as it should be.

I would have an easier time believing in America's opposition to rape if it hadn't allied itself with Japan. How many women your allies raped in their Asian colonies? Have they ever expressed ANY remorse?

My young friend, every person who commits a crime such as rape knows that God wills their death.

All Christian countries - and all countries that are based on natural law - are ruled by people who agree with that.

Let not your heart be troubled, my young friend. God's vengeance is inevitable. I, for one, would have no trouble dying for the glory of Brazil, in those few moments of its existence where Brazil stood forth for truth and glory, and I know you would do the same for my small humble country, a country so large under the night sky and the day sky, a country that you should learn to love, so that in your heart you too can say - I was not born in that country, but I would die for it in those few moments where it stood for truth.

Also, not to be over-exact, but, my young friend, my uncle went to fight the Japanese, was taken prisoner, and spent years being treated in an evil way by them. He survived the Bataan death march and, when he returned to the United States, he was full of information about the American conflict with Japan that you, my poor humble young friend from a universe that is not our universe, are ignorant of. Tell no more lies, my young friend!

Wake up and speak no more of things you know little about! I want the best for you, and I love the country of Brazil, and my heart is saddened at your lies about the United States. More importantly - God wants you to revere the truth, and to shun lies.

Or stay in your universe, my young Lusitanian friend: but if you do so, tell no more lies about those in other universes! Remember, as Saint Paul discussed in the Letter to the Ephesians, that those of us with the ability to persuasively speak - whether or not we speak foolishly or wisely - must remember that it is wrong to imply, jokingly or not, that those things which are true are not true, or to imply that those things which are not true are true.

Join me, my young friend, in a world where we were born to be honest, and where we try to be honest,as best we can. A smart little fellow like you will never get better advice: hate me for being so honest, but thank God that someone gave you, one day, such good advice.

"Wake up and speak no more of things you know little about! I want the best for you, and I love the country of Brazil, and my heart is saddened at your lies about the United States. "
Americans keep supporting the Japanese regime because it is politically expedient, not morally right. That is the same reason Americans imported Nazis (Operation Paperclip).

"My young friend, every person who commits a crime such as rape knows that God wills their death."

The important thing is that this blood will not be upon us as it is upon people swiftly to call for someone's death.

No, my young friend. You are so arrogant! Learn to love others, to care about others: I do not care that you tried to say hurtful words about me (I call for no-one's blood, I merely note that a rapist calls down on himself the retribution of death - do you not know that - have you never had a daughter, or a wife?)

Live not by lies. I know you are entertained by your own intelligence, and I understand that you are beguiled by your own sprezzatura.

But stop lying. Stop lying. Stop lying.

The dead Americans who sacrificed everything to defeat the Modern Evil of Nazism, while lazy Brazilians stayed at home and danced to their second-rate music, are not here to tell you that you should be ashamed of yourself. So I will tell you.

Live not as a comical person, drumming up support for stupid points of view! You are better than that!

Death to rapists, by the way. Reflect, my poor young friend, and remember that as they try to call into life other creatures by violence, God, who hates evil, wants them to no longer commit evil. Think about it, my young friend from Ohio - you are no Brazilian, you know that, I know that, I have too much respect for Brazil to consider you Brazilian (and nothing against Ohio, but at least your lies do not shame Ohio since you only claim to be from another country).

Live not by lies

Join me my young friend in a world where we are called to be honest.
If not today, tomorrow, if not tomorrow, the day after, in not then, some later day.
But, some day, commit to honesty. God loves you more than you can imagine.

God loves you more than you can imagine.
Tell me you are angry at me, tell me that you have wonderfully witty and hurtful things to say to me to show that You are Right and I am Wrong.
God loves you, my little Southern Hemisphere friend, more than God loves me, and with that kind statement I will leave the rest of the argument to God, feel free to tell me I am stupid ignorant crazy boring wrong ignorant (I said the word ignorant already already but thought I would repeat it since it amuses me); feel free to tell me that you understand history and nobody else does; feel free to tell me that you are brave and good and you want the best for everybody
God loves you more than God loves me.
You know what you need to do to learn the truth.
Make God smile. Wake up.
Nobody cares about what we said if we go forward trying our best to be honest.

"The dead Americans who sacrificed everything to defeat the Modern Evil of Nazism, while lazy Brazilians stayed at home and danced to their second-rate music, are not here to tell you that you should be ashamed of yourself. So I will tell you."

It is a lie! Brazilians fought against the Nazis. There are many Brazilians buried in Italy. As we say, "they lived little/ to live righteously/ they died young/ to live forever".
Famous American statesmen Dean Acheson praised Brazil's participation in the war and criticized famous Soviet communist leader Molotov for saying Brazil was not against the Nazis. Why are you parroting communist propaganda?

According to Prophet Bandarra, Brazil will defeat Gog and Magog, rise like a lion and crush the Serpent with its heel. Then, in the words of Isaiah, "The wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid; and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together; and a little child shall lead them."

Ok, now I get it.
You are just trying to get laughs.
Well, God loves those who try to make others laugh, there is a true kindness to that.
Some day, years from now, please remember that I tried to help you be the real person you were meant to be.
Please do not respond. I am disappointed in you, and do not want you to repeat your foolish statements: I want better things for you: therefore, please do not respond, my poor little robot.

So you keep parroting anti-Brazilian decades-old Soviet propaganda created by Soviet communist leader Molotov?

People like me ended the evil reign of people like Molotov. You are welcome.

Whoa, wait a second. A drop Overall? But what does that say about the refugee crime rate? Why not separate that out?
Here are the sentences that actually count in this essay:
"In fact crimes committed by immigrants from outside the EU fell sharply, the government said, mainly because of a dramatic cut in asylum seekers crossing the border illegally."
"The figures showed that 10.6 per cent of cases involving serious bodily harm and 15.9 per cent of rape and serious sexual assault cases were carried out by suspects who were refugees, asylum-seekers or non-EU illegal immigrants."
Notice they do *not* state anywhere how many refugees, asylum-seekers or non-EU illegal immigrants are in Germany. They do have this:
"The German population was 82.7 million last year, including 5.9 million residents from non-EU countries, or 7.2 per cent."
But 'residents' includes a lot more than the refugees/asylum-seekers/illegals. So we have no idea what the crime rate is for the R/A/Is, but a drop in crime rate is substantially because of a crackdown on illegal immigration.

What's the German phrase that's closest to, "I smell a rat"?

Ich rieche eine Ratte!

To answer your question: refugees, asylum seekers and non-EU illegals are between 1 and 2 percent of the population.

Which means that someone from that group is 6-12 times more likely to commit a crime involving serious bodily harm and 9-19 times more likely to commit rape or serious sexual assault than the rest of the population.

You have to take into account that some of these people commit several crimes. A few serial offenders probably drive these numbers up a lot, especially for crimes like theft or not-so-serious types of assault where the judge might give you just a fine but won't take you out of the game. With low-value theft you can easily get into the triple digits since you won't be caught most of the time and you get several tries to mend your evil ways if you do get caught.
But foreigners, that is "people without german passport", make up 40-50% of prison inmates in Germany, in Switzerland I thinks it's even 80%.

For some crimes the number are more obvious: from 2015 to 2016 gang rapes rose bei 130%, and non-EU foreigners seem to dominate this field completely (although "gang rape" is rather rare). Unfortunately I couldn't find better and newer statistics for this type of crime.

I love the fact-resistant islamofubs on MR. So thoroughly brainwashed by Faux News and Breitbart. Facts > Feelings. The amount of cognitive dissonance generates enough power to run 100s of bitcoin-style blockchains.

Shut up, stupid. You may love fact-resistant adversaries in some little universe you have created to make yourself believe you are the one who understand reality, but maybe what you love is proudly lying about real crimes against real people.

Where did you pick up the rhetorical trick of explaining your own lack of statistical understanding on the stupidity of others?

You have one life to live, do not live it in a state of ignorance.

Or go ahead and live your life thinking that you are brilliant and that you understand the world. By the way, if you choose to do so - put some effort into, like, understanding that the odds are (even leaving aside the priors) 50-50 that the cognitive dissonance is yours.

Sorry I said shut up stupid, but I meant it. Who do you think you are?

You have one life to live, do not live it in a state of ignorance

That fact that both you and your muslim boyfriend above believe in cute little skyfather fantasies tells me both of you live in a state of ignorance.

Sad! live not by lies, you ignorant speaker of phony insults!

No, there is nothing cute about it.

You were born into a cold world where nobody cared about you, you know that - or do you think, in your liberal way, that you were a special snowflake? The fact that you can be so insulting, so many years into what seems to be a boring life, is sort of a counterfactual to your nasty insult, is it not?

Or maybe someday you will grow up and find you are the Sheldon-God of your ignorant world. Good luck with that.

Seriously, insult me all you want, I don't care, but you have just one life to live, do not live it in a state of ignorance.

You may have the last word. Demonstrate as best you can your lack of ignorance - tell us about all the people whom you have understood over the years, tell us about the wisdom you have accrued, tell us about your proud cold icy appreciation of the truth that God is not real.

Or, and this is what I would prefer: remember that God created you.

Look, you can be as smart as Stephen Hawking and I will not be impressed.
God created the world, remember that.

I will be impressed, to tell the truth, if you say something (as I guess you want) terrifically insulting and unanswerable, something that shows that you are cool and I am an idiot. That you have the right to tell me that I am ignorant, when I am the one who reminds you that, no matter how many degrees you have, God created the world you study, and you are just a student.

Go ahead. Mock what I said. Say something that will make me think for a second that I "live in a state of ignorance" and that some "I fucking love science" child like you has the right to mock me. Go ahead.

Now, speaking as a kind human to another human - Your rhetoric will probably fail, so don't try rhetoric. Your attempts at dialectic (see what I did there - anything you say will be, at a minimum, rhetoric, but you need to put in some effort for dialectic) will probably fail. Actually, they both will certainly fail.

Some day you will get it. On that day we will remember this argument and laugh. For me it was not an argument. You are welcome for the good advice. That is all it was. Poor little Hawking and the second-rate Dawkins and poor sad Sam Harris - they will not be there for you when you begin to understand. I hope you get what I am saying. Good luck, and may God bless you!

What evidence do you have that the german government is telling the truth?

You understand the incentive structure, right?

What evidence do you have that they are not? You understand logic and rational thinking yes?

It turns out Trump supporters commit more crime than Muslims.

Heck, Trump himself commits more crimes than Muslims.

It’s complicated. One aspect is that due to to the long term underinvestment in police and courts many crimes are simply being ignored by now, that is things like theft or small time drug dealing. There is simply no point to it - in Berlin i think 80% of the cases are dropped by the prosecutor instead of sending it to court.
Next, people without German passport are generally younger and therefore more prone to crime, but still massively over represented. Their crime rate is 3-4 times as high. Almost half of the rapes by strangers, the kind where someone hits a woman over the head in a park after dark, are committed by people without German citizenship. They are also responsible for most of the drug trafficking.
And if you look at the crime rate of Germans, immigrants or their descendants with a German passport then it’s also 2-3 times higher than those of the natives.
On the other hand some crimes are mostly committed visiting foreign gangs like Georgians who specialize in burglary, but they are rather commuters than immigrants. These burglaries have actually gone gone down recently due to more targeted prosecutions.

'visiting foreign gangs like Georgians who specialize in burglary'

Interesting to see the regional variations. In BW, the visiting foreign gangs were Romanian, and the Georgians were never mentioned, as this is the very first time hearing that.

Of course the numbers of Romanian Roma gangs is much higher, simply because it's much easier for them to travel to western europe. The absolute number of Georgians here is only a few thousand at most I think, but a remarkably large part of those seem to come for for theft and burglary only. About 25000 Georgians are in Germany at the moment. Two years ago, almost 2000 Georgians were suspected of theft or burglary, so at the moment it's probably even more - they just dropped the visa requirement for Georgians. In every one of the last few months several hundreds of them came as asylum seekers. According to the local media they aggregate in certain refugee homes and work from there.
Of course you would get completely different statistics if you split off the numbers for foreigners from certain countries of origin where people have developed these business model fashions. This skews the numbers for certein types of crime. But violent crime is much less organized and personal preference of some ethnicities. I myself would rank Chechens as the worst in that regard.

'Romanian Roma gangs'

Nope, not Roma. The ones I am remembering were mainly targeted against high end targets, including things like jewelry stores. The assumption at the time was that the professionalism and pürecise timing meant that former members of Securitate were heavily involved.

'I myself would rank Chechens as the worst in that regard.'

Albanians seem to be consensus opinion around here, though there has been a lot of shifts going on over the past few years.

There are two countries in Europe (kinda..) where blood feuds are an integral part of society: one is Albania, the other Chechenya. The country where radical Islam meets Eastern European charm. A place without homosexuals, according to its president, “and if there where any we wouldn’t have to persecute them because their family would kill them first” (paraphrased).
I know I’m unfairly stereotyping foreign nationals, but some of these people are sometimes simply incomprehensible.

Angela Merkel now says there ARE no go zones. How is crime accurately counted in those (the highest crime) areas?

The link proving that statement will be fascinating to see.

Particularly considering that German police routinely carry automatic weapons in places like Frankfurt to handle potential terrorist threats against targets like the ECB or train station.

Maybe this is fake. Can't be sure these days. https://www.apnews.com/438bb0ac98d04459ab2e392f3c4fc5ef

Posted this last month on Facebook:

After a 10% increase in violence in the years 2014/2015, of which 91.1% were due to immigration,[1] Germany has now seen a 10% decrease in crime, compared to 2016.[2]

**The good news**

- Violent crime has seen a decrease of 2.4%.

- The largest overall decrease in crime comes from a decrease in burglary and theft.

**The bad news**

- Homicides increased 3.2%.

- Drug crimes saw an increase of 9.2%.

- Crimes at schools (mostly violence) increased between 5-16% depending on the state.[3]

**The Knife Crime Indicator**

Since 2014, knife crimes increased dramatically in many German states and cities. Some states saw an increase of 55% whereas some cities saw an increase of up to 296%.[4][5]

In the city of Leipzig (123% increase), approximately 50% of the cases are related to refugees.

In the state of Hessen, knife attacks have increased 20% between 2014 and 2016. 57% of the suspects were foreigners. 7% of all suspects were Afghans (0.6% of the population).[6]

**Immigration and Crime**

The question is, how much of the recent decrease in crime is due to a decrease in crime committed by immigrants and refugees?

For example, most burglaries (a type of crime which saw the largest decrease) have historically been committed by East European gangs.

We also have to account for a possible decrease in crime due to the recent deportations of criminal immigrants.

Also consider that violent crime saw a much smaller decrease compared to the overall decrease. For example, according to the German Federal Office of Criminal Investigation, a certain set of immigrants (2% of the total population of Germany) are suspects in 14.9% of all criminal, sexual and aggravated assaults and rapes.[7]

**The case of Sweden**

If we look at Sweden, we can see that overall, crime decreased as well. But we can also see that it would be lower without immigration.[8]

Between 1990 and 2015, the homicide rate in Sweden declined from 1.3 to 1.1 per 100,000. This drop is less than that in Western Europe as a whole, where the homicide rate declined from 1.3 to 0.6 in 2013, the latest year reported by the World Health Organization.

In Finland, the homicide rate declined from 3.2 to 1.3 during the same period, and in Norway from 1.1 to 0.4. The rate was stable at 0.8 in Denmark.

**Conclusion**

This decrease in overall crime is certainly great news but does not let immigration from certain cultural backgrounds off the hook yet. After all, it is still true that approximately 19% of all inmates in Germany are Muslim while representing 5-6% of the total population.[9]

If one controls for age and sex, male immigrants aged 20-30 are still roughly 2.7 times more often crime suspects than German men of the same age range.German women are 2.9 times less likely to be crime suspects than immigrant women.[10]

Some additional stats:

(1) When it comes to homicide, rape and sex assaults, in 2014 there have been 180,955 such cases whereas in 2017 Germany has seen 188,946 such crimes.

When it comes to homicide suspects, in 2017, 1558 were German citizens whereas 1140 had no citizenship. Non-citizens make up 12% of the population but are suspects in 42% of all homicides.

(2) The cases of rape and sexual assault by non-EU-citizens has risen by 38% in 2017.

Compared to 2014 (before the height of the refugee crisis), the number of all crimes committed by non-EU-citizens has risen by 22% (illegal border crossings are excluded).

I'd like to add that the statistic don't reflect all the negative that that has happened. As soon as some from certain countries start carrying and actually using knifes, the other groups they have contact with will follow suit after a while. A friend of mine lives near an open drug scene place that had been surprisingly harmless and friendly during the last 15 years since he's been there. People where simply doing their thing in their supposedly typically orderly, German way. Now he's actually traumatized by the acts of violence he had to watch over the last 2 or three years. You won't notice it if you're not living there or have a lot of contact with e.g. young people that interact with each other a lot on the street or in schools, but the change is there.
Some people are used to massively different levels of violence from their home countries, and they change the culture here too.

And as long as both parties involved can walk away by themselves, these confrontations will never be registered in any statistics.
Just to illustrate how "German" this drug place was and sometimes still is: recently someone there went to the next policeman standing there because the guy he bought drugs from refused to give him his change...

>refugees and asylum seekers were proportionately over-represented

Wow. What a wonderfully Orwellian turn of passive voice.

There people weren't actually doing anything themselves; they were just standing around innocently, until someone ELSE came and wrote up some numbers that "proportionally over-represented" them.

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