Sentences to ponder

And as an astute friend pointed out to me recently, Trump’s scary tweets even seem to have the effect of tempering market exuberance, acting as a kind of check in lieu of interest-rate hikes.

That is from Bret Stephens (NYT).

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Silver linings.
Too bad their frequency distribution is uncorrelated to the market. We're lucky the market is bullish. I wonder what effect this would have in a bear market.

The reason we have a bull market is because Trump is the president. This would have happened under Hillary. Never. #maga2020

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Of course, what Stephens means is that Trump's instability has become so common that it has normalized in markets: what once would have caused markets to collapse, has become so normal that markets move hardly at all. This is a good thing in the sense that markets won't react to lots of political noise. But it's a bad thing in the sense that when Trump goes off the rails, markets have much farther to fall.

How much longer do I need to wait for that to happen?

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Conservatives, you own this forever.

You have two choices, vote for Bernie Sanders or admit to being a supporter of incompetent fascism. Remember when Conservatives went nuts after Obama singlehandedly saved US auto manufacturing? Jonah Goldberg called him a fascist for interfering in the market.

Now trump declares a buffoonish autarky and you defend him by refusing to vote Sanders.

The choice is yours: socialism with decency, or incompetence with a side of senile fascism.

Quem deus vult perdere, prius dementat.

Now, I want to vote twice for Trump.

I come here to gauge the depth of ignorance of the idiots Tyler quotes in "sentences to ponder" and of various and sundry commenters.

Stephens: One of the many brains Trump broke.

He even misspells "asshole friend." That sentence is the stupidest I read all day. I won't waste time explaining. You knuckleheads would not understand.

Be prepared to cry again in 2020.

You think you're so smart throwing Latin in our faces. Never underestimate the people. Especially the American people.

Yes, the ones who voted Trump in to office, right?

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Anonymous is turning into Mulp.

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Elizabeth Warren also serves.

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I'm not sure when I started following @realDonaldTrump on Twitter. It might have been just after the election, or the inauguration. My thinking was that I wanted to see what he said straight up, without intermediation.

My conclusion after 800+ days, is that the feed may contain the occasional staff or lawyer tweet, but mostly it is a unique window into what a US President is thinking throughout the day. Unfiltered. Unvarnished. Unspellchecked. Unparalleled.

Does that have the effect of injecting some wariness into markets?

If you'll forgive me, it sure as hell should, and the rest of us.

A leader of the free world with the impulse and lack of self-control to blurt-tweet a relitigation of the Kentucky Derby really is a scary thing. And yet now it is normal.

It doesn't give confidence about *process* as we hear of a North Korean ship seized.

I would not have used "Anonymous" if I had seen the Sanders supporter above. FYI, we are different people.

Another imposter.

All we want is for Republicans to swear a blood oath to Sanders OR to write in Bill Weld in the general election.

What we will not abide is for libertarians and Republicans to choose Trump over Sanders.

There are 100 million immigrants in waiting south of the border.

Summer is coming. Sanders 2020.

I think MR is in for a raucous day, in which many attempt the heckler's veto.

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It's called transparency.

Maybe the rebound will be a new Silent Cal, a president with low social media footprint, and a nation that sighs relief.

Tweets on national holidays and family birthdays or anniversaries only.

And May Day. And any day where Jews are shot by Arabs.

Free Palestine

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"Donald Pretari said... I'm not sure if this is sound, but G.W. Bush, McCain, and Romney, ran campaigns pushing views they didn't really favor. Trump is running on the premise that he's telling you what he thinks. Somehow, given that he doesn't seem to know exactly what he thinks, some people believe him. Maybe, it's that he has never been a politician. In any case, if elected, his spending plans will pass, and everything else will go nowhere, and yet another GOP president will increase the deficit/ debt. It's going to be a lot more business as usual than many people assume.
Reply September 28, 2016 at 12:00 PM"

I stand by this. He's cut taxes and and increased the Debt/ Deficit. I agreed with Trump about the Fed's policies. He could pick decent people for the Fed. I like to quote myself, because I stand by what I say and will admit being wrong. I don't know where the economy will be in 2020, so relying on that to defeat Trump would be ridiculous. Plus, hoping for misery for political gain is not a decent position. But here's the thing.

If the economy is good in 2020, whatever causes it, Trump will take credit. If the economy is bad, Trump will blame someone else. The only solution is to run on principles. Trump posted a 100 day contract/ promise to the American people. Do any of his supporters even know this? Does anybody care? You would if you cared about Trump's principles, like term limits for congress.

The one issue I keep reading about is his Supreme Court Nominations. Apparently, the idea is to put people on the court to make particular decisions. Note to citizens...that's what amendments are for, not judges.

Yes, that was a solid prediction.

Exactly.

He’s banned transsexual and or Castrated soldiers from serving. From game of thrones we know castrated soldiers or transexual castrated soldiers are actually stronger than regular soldiers. And yet TrumpenFürher is supported by ConservaRussians.

Only a sexist racist would reduce taxes on investment. Studies show saving for the future is heavily racist. A neo-Holocaust.

Republicans have a brain cell or strand of integrity left and write in Bill Weld.

Everyone else is a traitor. Manchurian candidate. Putin ‘useful idiot’. Under Warren they will be re-educated.

Science Bless America

As perhaps the original ʕ •ᴥ•ʔ, let me say that I find this evident panic amusing.

Normally the "parodies" hold it together a bit better.

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"Note to citizens...that's what amendments are for, not judges."

That's the point of his nominations. They are constitutionalists rather than activists. Activists tend to want to legislate from the bench.

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Bret Stephens flatters Trump on the rare occasion when Trump's policies line up with Bret Stephen's preferences and bashes him when they don't.

For a rare example of the former, Stephens has long opposed the Obama Administration Iran deal. The Trump Administration withdrew and Stephens wrote some flattering coverage on the one year anniversary of the withdrawal, "The Foreign Policy Fiasco That Wasn't". One quote, "Hezbollah fighters and Palestinian militants aren’t being paid, and their families are losing subsidized housing."

I never find anything insightful coming from Bret Stephens. If the NYT would retire him and David Brooks, the level of discourse would be raised tremendously.

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Own what? The low unemployment rate? A growing but not ridiculously feverish market? The 3% market rate?

The socialist and communist stories are heart warming and wonderful until they see application. (by the way, social services are Prussian in origin. Socialist have difficulty tying their own shoes). Trump blathers on and no one pays attention but no one is under any illusion that if they fu** up like in 2008 that he will bail them out.

Your moral preening reminds me the wild turkeys I watch in the spring. They are impressed with each other but they look ridiculous and/or quite delicious.

I worked with tan colored coffee mug, a blue pen, and a yellow notebook plotting story boards for “three-hour deals,” spirographs, and color campaigns, happy enough eating chicken wings in relative obscurity. In 1994, our group hatched an out-of-home concept for computer-painting on bus shelters, mall displays, and airport kiosks. Upon launch we sought meetings with WPP and Millward Brown, the result of which was a model of shopper behavior known as P2P. Four years later, before I went out west, I published a theory of brand displacement & buoyancy based on the data.

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Attention: President Captain Bolsonaro has banned homosexual indoctrination at Brazilian schools. He has vowed to read the national universities admission test to make sure there will no pro--homosexual content.
Former President Mr. Temer has been jailed. Has Trump already locked her up. Or were he just fooling the rubes?

homosexual indoctrination is vulgar to hindus. luckily, I am muslim, thus I am able to distinguish criticism with sarcasm.

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I guess — judging by my entirely personal reaction to this post; YMMV — I’ll out myself as a social liberal and fiscal/foreign policy conservative. Because I don’t care what homosexuals do ... and I support their right do do whatever they want to do, as long as it doesn’t interfere with my pursuit of happiness felicity and prosperity (add classical liberal caveats and details here). So this (predictably Latin) homophobia seems petty to me.

NB: yes, she should be locked up or at least soundly mocked by both sides of the aisle for her scofflaw practices.)

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"The reason for the China pullback & attempted renegotiation of the Trade Deal is the sincere HOPE that they will be able to “negotiate” with Joe Biden or one of the very weak Democrats, and thereby continue to ripoff the United States (($500 Billion a year)) for years to come...."

Fair and accurate. No wonder establishment types are wetting the bed.

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"Trump’s scary tweets even seem to have the effect of tempering market exuberance."

One might say the same about Obama's whole presidency, of course.

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I think we already have a Trump Tweet futures market.

Everyone has a theory, so I have one. Finance is looking 60 years out. What they bet, 60 years out, is the corrective cost of right to coin imbalances, how often and how will the Fed continue doing generational adaptions.. The outlook is accurate, and positive, predicting lower 'inflation' and continued 2.5% real growth.

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Tyler - by this remark on irrational exuberance you are clearly a bubble guy rather than an EMH person. Care to explain why? Can you describe what a bubble is and whether or not we should try to deflate them?

If you want an answer as to why this cycle has had less stock market growth than other previous post-war cycles - look at NGDP growth. It is about half in the 2000's for instance. There is just less money being supplied by the CB.

Being an EMH person I think the fact that Trump tweets has already been factored in by the market. So it is only when there is specific news in his tweets that there is an impact. But how is this different from any other time? We have always had news surely?

On the fact that Trump is doing stupid stuff in public, my view is that his administration is no worse, and perhaps a little better than the others (no wars so far!). All politics is dark comedy most of the time. In Trumps case we are simply lifting the veil a little. This is why I am a libertarian.

Free riders are possible with any system of government, but perhaps perversely, they multiply when governments keep you safe and prosperous for generations.

"governments keep you safe and prosperous for generations" - So the answer is strong government to keep us all safe? I never figured you were a facist.

"Safe and prosperous" is a precious thing, and facists tend not to provide it.

Certainly not to all citizens.

Ok you get that Governments can be good or bad. So why do you want to make them more powerful? I think you hate Trump and the Republicans based on your previous posts here. Are you really comfortable with handing them more and more power? Or are you saying in your preferred model only "good" people will be allowed to be elected? How will you ensure that in the future - not allow the "bad" people to be elected? Can you see where this is going?

I support an old middle way. I could thumbnail it by saying it's the Niskansen set of ideas. More or less.

Basically, if you are going to have government, quality of governance is a better metric than size.

Even more, misplaced emphasis on size may distract from more important goals.

Is there anyone who doesn't support good governance? That it not really a very helpful observation. The question is how to achieve this. I believe, based on the site you link and your comments that you are looking too much for Government led solutions. I believe that is at best naive, and at worst very dangerous. Entities like governments can't be trusted to favour our interests versus theirs. Furthermore they are often stupid and/or incompetent, and over-driven by egos (Trump is exhibit A but I can describe similar from almost all administrations you care to mention). Finally they are often wrong about ideas that they hold. This puts me at risk - I don't want to be put at risk because of some idiots ego. I think better governance comes from less interference, being humble about what we know and letting individuals make their own decisions, whether it is who to have sex with, what they smoke or eat, who to do business with and who they vote for.

Of course I am not an anarchist, we need to have some Government structure, but lets keep it to the minimum for all our sakes.

I don't think Niskanen or I "favor government solutions" as a default.

We might just not be shy when government action is appropriate.

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A related tidbit that would be wild if true:

"All told, Ketcham says, enforcing the EPA’s stricter air quality standard likely resulted in 140,000 fewer people living with dementia by 2014. He places the economic value of that avoided disease burden at around $163 billion."

https://www.wired.com/story/air-pollution-dementia/

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The drunk idiots in my neighborhood bar district do sterling work in ensuring only the strongest lampposts stay upright and testing the effect of urine on alleyways. Keep it up, guys!

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