Friday assorted links


How does Sullivan know? It's not like he is a member of the working class. He doesn't even reside in the UK. Sullivan is the chameleon, ready to be on the left or on the right, depending on what suits him at the moment. I've commented many times that it's no small wonder that the man doesn't suffer from whiplash he has changed positions on issues so often.

Oh..him? Did he mention his circumcision troubles or did he try to stick to the topic?

Thanks for letting me know who wrote it. I'll pass.

I stopped reading Sullivan in 2003 after he ascribed Pope John Paul II's measured opposition to the Iraq war to "traditional, Catholic anti-Semitism."

Anyhow, I still love you, rayward.

Er, he knows it because the exit polling and the by-constituency results clearly demonstrate it was. You don't need to be a member of the working class to understand the data shows a higher correlation between working-class status and Tory voting than between supporting Brexit and Tory voting.

1. I'm with Cowen & Carden (sounds like a law firm) that economic growth is good and should be encouraged, and that focusing on current distribution misses the long term benefits for everyone from economic growth. But what if a high level of inequality adversely affects economic growth? And what if, contrary to Carden, the natural order of things (a/k/a markets) is to maximize economic growth (more, more, more) rather than economic progress (better, better, better)? My experience with humanity, though limited, doesn't give me a feeling of great comfort, but perhaps Cowen & Carden spend their time with a better breed or class of humans.

"And what if, contrary to Carden, the natural order of things (a/k/a markets) is to maximize economic growth (more, more, more) rather than economic progress (better, better, better)? "

If you have economic growth, you'll get economic progress. I suppose you could come up with some bizarre example where growth didn't lead to progress, but it wouldn't match the world we live in.

"If you have economic growth, you'll get economic progress."

Up to a point. Then you have Chile.

Pursuing economic growth as a matter of public policy doesn’t mean abolishing the welfare state and regulation.

At a certain point, people on the bottom need a short run bump to buy into the idea that growth is good for you. That short run fix is best accomplished through the earned income tax credit. It’s uncomplicated as a means to help the poor.

Telling poor people that growth is good for you as a function of exponential long run benefit is a turn off. Their time horizons are day to day and certainly not grounded in the concept of exponentials.

"That short run fix is best accomplished through the earned income tax credit"


5. ' Yesterday’s UK vote was a working class revolt against the Left'

Certainly sounds like a reasonable explanation for why the SNP won so big. The next fun trick to watch will be the attempt to explain why a party that rejects Scotland leaving the EU took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour.

But the real fun will be in hearing from the people who argued that taking back control is a sacred duty for the English turn around and argue that the Scots are most definitely not allowed to take back control of their own nation.

Love the new handle.

Listen, we know you're mad the UK is dumping you. But it's pretty weak sauce to go from constant carping that they shouldn't to doubling down on the Scotland thing. We get it, you don't have to keep posting the same sour gripes in every thread.

It does sound bitter enough to be prior.

Scotland already voted, which Alex Salmond said would settle the question for a generation. Demanding another vote on Scottish independence is like the Remainers demanding a re-vote. That's the talk of sore losers (like you).

That's not at all what Salmond said. Either you well know that and you're trolling, or you're ignorant and should keep quiet on topics you're not versed on.

Indeed. The vote share for the SNP in Scotland is mostly stable and a decline on 2015 (higher than 2017, but that's mostly explained by the decline of Labour). No one has rejected the idea that Scotland should be allowed to have a vote on independence, as much as it is about honoring the vote of the majority that voted to remain in the UK in 2014 (whether prior likes that a majority voted this way or not), rather than constantly hammering them through a series of further referenda on a thin pretext until the SNP can fluke out a win and then declare that binding.

The Scots were explicitly told by the EU in 2014 that a vote to leave the UK would be considered a vote to leave the EU.

Then, deciding to remain a part of the UK to stay in the EU, they then were told that they were leaving the EU by remaining in the UK.

Considerably more Scottish voters voted to remain than have ever voted for the SNP, after all. And that still remains the case - which is one reason the SNP is using the issue to further their own goals, of course. And also the reason why some are so desperate to downplay that obvious fact.

The Irish are a separate issue, but again, the political constellation that favors (all of) Ireland in the EU won in the general election vote too.

"2. Victoria Falls drying to a trickle."

The article doesn't support that. From the article:

"While there’s been a slight drop in rainfall at the Livingstone site, Dube found no statistically significant changes over the 40-year period."

The article then chooses to focus on 2 months:

"In October and November, average rainfall has decreased at a startling rate."

Obviously if there has been no change in the yearly rain fall but there's less rain in October and November, then there would clearly have to be more rainfall in the other months.

This might be evidence of climate change, but it's more likely to be random fluctuations in local weather. Indeed, for this to actually be climate change it would supposedly have effected large swathes of Africa. Yet apparently that's not the case.

I lean toward the AGW side, but articles like this undermine the case! This is merely an environmental Just So story.

Framed another way: Someone who didn't believe in AGW could have taken the exact same data and found a two month period that had a startling increase in rainfall. The rainfall in the other 10 months obviously went up and it's unlikely that it was evenly distributed.

Would that be evidence that AGW doesn't exist? Of course not.

Polls Show Majority Would Rather Be Annihilated By A Tsunami Than Continue To Be Lectured At By Climate Alarmists [Babylon Bee].

"'You Have Stolen My Dreams And My Childhood,' Says Girl Currently Gracing Cover Of Time Magazine"

It wasn't me.

Does AGW exist? No, because if it did they would not have to fabricate data to support the theory or censor data that refutes the story

I believe in AGW. But if you look at the actual scientific projections and the current trends in technological advancements, it just isn't anywhere near the crisis that the Climate Warriors are clamoring about.

Apparently happened 69 years ago as well.

7. The English would have been happy to dump all of Ireland a century ago, but for the pleas of the Orangemen "Our only crime is our loyalty."

Now, nobody wants Northern Ireland. I was in Belfast last summer and can confirm it's a dump. Dublin is much nicer, and the Irish countryside is quite prosperous (astonishing, given how poor the country was just 30 years ago), nicer than what I've seen of the American countryside.

Orange fear of poor backward Papists doesn't really apply anymore, does it?

Sinn Fein supposedly wants a united Ireland, but it has to see that achieving this objective raises the awkward question of "OK, what is the point of Sinn Fein now?"

Still, the path to a united Ireland is clearer than ever. No hurry though, given the perspective of 8 centuries of English meddling.

oops... #6.

If N.I. reunites with Ireland, and Scotland leaves the UK, won't Ireland then be almost as large as the rump UK (England and Wales)?

England accounts for 56 million of the 66 million in the UK.

Northern Ireland is under 2 million. Scotland 5 million. Wales 3 million. The population of Ireland is about 5 million.

If you are talking about land area, then it would be pretty close.

Ulstermen had outsized weight in the British Parliament, as happens in such systems. One interesting result of the latest election is that the Tories don't need the DUP votes now.

England proper would have been well rid of Ireland.

Brian's right, the English peoples (if not their governments) passivity on N.I dates way back. It's the ferocity of Ulster Unionism that has kept N.I in the U.K.

Being Irish and having lived in London it's shocking how ignorant most Brits under 30 are of Northern Ireland. Those over 30 typically have an awareness of the Troubles or the IRA at least, and are aware of how popular nationalism is there. Both groups are typically horrified at the sectarianism, N.I's politics (i.e. DUP, Stormount), and the huge transfers to N.I from Great Britain. I never met an English person I would describe as a "Unionist", when it comes to N.I.

Henry Farrell is right too. The great irony is that when re-unification now seems like a possibility, the Republic is now scared of re-unification. It is seen as too expensive, and we would introduce more radical and conservative politics to our country overnight. Yeats wrote a poem "September 1913" shaming the Irish catholic middle classes for abandoning Irish Nationalism. It feels kind of true now a century later.

Pomegranate market? Does not come anywhere close to this egg markets in everything

Those hold 14 eggs, which led to an amusing question and responses:

But I'm not sure why Tyler noted the pomegranate device. I've only had pomegranates a few times, but I'm sure my experience is nearly universal: delicious, but those seeds are annoying. And they're not like watermelon where you can bite off a big chunk and easily swallow the fruit and then spit out the seeds. It's a more one-seed-at-a-time process. Even Persephone had trouble with the seeds.

So a device that enables fast and easy de-seeding of pomegranates is a big win in my book. Not clear to me however that this device will accomplish that.

Didn't you post yesterday using a different name?

No, I did not.

That is the impostor.

No, I have not, but I am sure many people have notuced the Gauleiter-like behaviour buffon Johnson displays.

What's a buffon?

Is that something from The Karate Kid? Wax on Daniel-son!

A buffoon, I meant. The keyboard is too small.

I hear the Brazilian keyboards are all made in China and are very small.

But at least the Chinese make MAGA hats big enough to fit even the biggest head.

I am using a Korean-designed device (Samsung). Their hands are much smaller than American ones.

4. Lots to read. His description of the political class and bureaucracy in reaction to the Brexit vote 3 years ago is interesting. It reminded me of the unwritten rule of the Canadian bureaucracy; It doesn't matter. If it does, It really doesn't matter.

But in this case it did matter, the issue didn't go away, and all the information that was available confirmed that it really didn't even if it did.

Most of the essay is pie in the sky; no one in these positions is interested in making good decisions, or making decisions at all. All they are interested in doing is maintaining their sinecure and establishing their unaccountability. To suggest that smarter people would do better is foolish; all they would do is erect even more impregnable barriers to what they don't want to know.

If these blithering idiots insist that the only way they will pay attention is if one of them is hung, I'm certain someone would be willing to oblige.

I think what has happened is twofold; the pronouncements of the media no longer have any effect. All those skills learned over the years of messaging and media management are useless because even if you do it right and everything is said and done to plan, no one pays attention.
And second, most importantly, the wonderfully enlightened policies promulgated by our bettors are so brazenly self serving and silly that they eventually generate an unstoppable movement of opposition. Things like opening borders and declaring that men are women are blitheringly stupid, and these overeducated idiots should know better.

People are paying YouTube Instagram Facebook etc etc...political ideology is so yesterday dead man walking..politicians have lost control of events Constable Plods arriving at crime scene hours after it happened...

#5...It's hard to believe that a Conservative PM launched this spectacle on a stay platform, and a Conservative PM has just won a substantial majority on a leave platform. As well, it hasn't even happened yet, so stay tuned. Politics is a funny business.

'and a Conservative PM has just won a substantial majority on a leave platform'

Of seats, which is all that counts. But this breakdown of votes is pretty interesting, and confirms another commenter remarking that FPTP was the real election winner-

"Pro-Brexit parties got 46.8% of the vote (CONs 43.6% + BXP 2% + Other 1.5%), while Labour and anti-Brexit parties got 51.8% (LAB 32.2 + LD 11.5 + SNP 3.9 + GRN 2.7 + Other 1.5%).

It's the system we have, but for those watching from the US, you have to keep in mind the seat breakdown in Parliament is not a great way to gauge popular opinion."

But what sense does it make to join Labour with the anti-brexit party. Labour is divided on Brexit, as everyones knows, and his leader has said Labour would be neutral in case of a new referendum on Brexit.
So the real breakup of voies is:
Pro-Brexit : 46.8%
Anti-Brexit: 19.6%
Neutral or (we) don't know: 32.2%

If we assume that one-third of Labor voters are pro-brexit, two-third against (a conservative estimate), that's more than 57% pro-brexit.

This election, as well as the European election six months ago, suggest that in case of a new referendum on Brexit (with the same question as in the first), the pro-Brexit side would win easily.

If you are going to do that, at least say something funny, like the CMG.

Carden seems to go along with Cowen's implicit assumption that the failure to appreciate economic growth/progress sufficiently enough is an important practical problem, which is to say that we don't have more progress because we are choosing to redistribute for consumption too much instead of using those resources for investment and innovation. I think, on the contrary, that the more important problem is that we do not know how to promote or remove the obstacles to investment and innovation.

Take the recent "Tax Cuts for the Rich and Deficits Act of 2017." This vast redistribution of wealth to high income earners and the failure to offset the resulting deficits with higher personal taxes on the beneficiaries of lower business taxes was sincerely (if recklessly) as seen by its advocates and defenders as promoting economic growth. Or take the resistance to carbon taxation whether by climate change deniers or Green New Dealers. Their errors do not come from undervaluing current versus future consumption.

Cowen is correct, but irrelevant for most of our present issues.

Why was there no video of the pomegranite device working? I would have purchased it if there were and it was compelling.

I'd be really surprised if, for any election, a survey didn't show a preference for the winner among the working class, since they are largest share of the voters. If the winner is a leftist populist, leffists will say proletarians are sending a message to the elite, while right-wing people will say they're being manipulated; and vice-versa, if a right-wing candidate wins.

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