World 2.0 — “There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen”

This is from a very able and perceptive correspondent:

World 1.0 World 2.0
110 successive months of job growth 10 million jobless claims in 2 weeks
10 year bull market across sectors Winners and losers with extreme outcome inequality
Full employment 30% unemployment
Base rate thinking First principles thinking
Physical Digital
Office by default Remote by default
Office for work Office for connection, community, ecosystem, makerspaces
Suit, tie, wristwatch, business card Good lighting, microphone, webcam, home office background
Commute + traffic jams Home + family
Last mile Only mile
Restaurants Groceries + delivery
$4 toast Sourdough starter
Walkscore Speedtest
Cities Internet
$100k for college Not paying $100k for a webinar
City Countryside
YIMBY NIMBY
Internal issues Exogenous shock
Lots of little problems One big problem
Stupid bullshit Actual issues
Too much technology Too little technology
Complacency Action
Years Days
Policy Capacity
Ideology Competence
Assume some government competence Assume zero government competence
Institutions Ghost ships
WHO Who?
Trusted institutions Trusted people
Globalization Decoupling
Just-in-time Stockpile
Tail risk is kooky Tail risk is mainstream
NATO Asia
Boomers most powerful Boomers most vulnerable
Productivity growth collapse Economic collapse
Social services Democrat UBI Communist
Propaganda Propaganda
Deficit hawks MMT
Corporate debt Government debt
Techlash Tech a pillar of civilization and lifeline to billions
Break up Amazon Don’t break up Amazon!!!
Avoiding social issues Avoiding layoffs
Sports Esports
Phone is a cigarette Phone is oxygen
Resource depletion $20 oil, $0.75 watt solar, <$100/kwh batteries
Stasis Change
Low volatility High volatility
Design Logistics
Extrovert Introvert
Open Closed
20th century 21st century

Comments

World 1.0 Dumb
World 2.0 Dumber

The headnote is quoting Lenin.

I am the walrus.

V.I. Lenin. Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov!

This is the right site for anyone who wishes to find out about this topic.
You understand so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa).
You certainly put a new spin on a topic that's been discussed for ages.
Great stuff, just great!

Never thought I'd say this, but... OK Boomer

Subtitled - 'From China With Love.'

If failing to plan for a pandemic represents lack of foresight, then what should we call failing to account for a vaccine when prognosticating about World 2.0?

Even with foresight and planning, this pandemic could still get you. Singapore just had to go into shutdown. All the people who said "Yeah but those countries are islands" are idiots.

When they were successful, it was because they're islands. Singapore got complacent.

Singapore has China levels of surveillance on their own people with ubiquitous CCTV and GPS phone tracking, they have a prepared population that wear masks and who remember SARS, and they are an island that strictly controls entry into their borders. And they still went into shutdown mode. What hope does anybody else have?

Sigh... you humans think *this* is a big event? Just wait until I sweep into town in 25 years.

I'll get to earth first.

Eh, we get one of you every couple hundred thousand years. You'd have to be pretty dark though for us not to have spotted you though. And that's just what we need, more carbon in the atmosphere. But I suppose there would be a bit of a "nuclear" winter...

Well, the meteor thing has happened before, but the Singularity? Not so much.*

*Er, that we know of.

You will see me years in advance. But you won't be able to get your shit together to do anything about me.

Q and The Borg
both showing up in the next few days

You arrived in 1876 when Thomas Edison invented the industrial research laboratory. We've gotten used to you by now.

Have we seen a disruptive force of this magnitude? Perhaps the industrial revolution, but compressed into such a short time frame?

I worry about the durability of these changes. They seem ephemeral as opposed to structural. Maybe if we have a series of rolling pandemics that restrict outdoors activity to this extent, we can institutionalize these changes.

Before I was born, but impacted my parents and how I was raised to think:
WWI. WWII.
Universal postal delivery (RFD) expanded to Parcel Post.
Viruses and vaccines

After I was born:

Cold war requiring massive industrial production and volume manufacturing of scifi tech: aluminum, titanium, rare earths, tiny computers, tiny radios, radar, plastics, revolution in transportation, communication.

Viruses and vaccines. (My PBS just reran American Experience episode on Polio, my parents feared polio so I did as a 6 year old, reinforced by classmates with crutches,, more than I fear SARS-Cov2)

Vietnam et al hubris based on misunderstanding WWII "success"

OPEC cartel production cuts.

Milton Friedman on free trade, justifying killing jobs and impoverishing workers

Reagan becoming president

1987 and cheap oil finishing destroying the economy of the midwest and south

All this before I turned 40 at the end of 1987.

The 1987 crash was faster than the current crash with a lasting impact that was not good, negative impacts even today.

I doubt this crisis will have a big negative impact in 30 years as large as 1987.

@mulp - 1987? That was a flash in a pan. The future seems to lie in "1984" (now a Broadway play, or it was until they closed Broadway).

Nah, the big was was when they invented electric roll-up windows for cars. Once you develop a race of humans who won't even roll down their own car windows you've pretty much doomed yourself to take Milton Friedman seriously..

mulp gets one thing right - WW1 is the big one. But then embarrassingly goes from Opec to Friedman without mentioning stagflation. There's a reason Keynes fell out of favour, and that is that western economies seized up in the 70s.

keynes fell out of favor when it became apparent that you really needed to follow his advice to run SURPLUSES during good times, to balance the deficits during bad times. in washington there is no appetite to run surpluses, ever. same thing will happen with mmt. says print and spend UNTIL inflation, then RAISE TAXES. we're just going to do the print and spend part.

What exactly is the "stupid bullshit" that's being opposed to "actual issues"? I'm pretty sure a lot of people in our societies, to say nothing of developing countries, were and still are facing "actual issues"...

If you're a Silicon Valley dude who thinks that the world can be described as an Excel spreadsheet of dichotomies, you probably think anything facing African-Americans / Hispanics / poor whites is "stupid BS".

Or, maybe, he just doesn't think that Halloween costumes, prom dresses, and pronouns are the actual things facing minorities. In all the talk about testing, no one has suggested so far that we should just ask people whether they emotionally self-identify as infected.

I'm so old. I remember when using the wrong pronoun was a national emergency: a month ago.

And, 14 January 2020 when WHO reported 'no clear evidence of person-to-person transmission' of Wuhan Flu.

I assume the stupid bullshit is related to the online discourse.

Love the sourdough starter reference. I just backed two loaves of "approachable loaf" bread. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/dining/bread-affordable-whole-grain.html It's my own variant, 2/3 whole wheat flour along with my own starter. I just tried a slice and it's quite good!!

Not a bad way to end off the week before I open a fresh bottle of scotch. I would have swapped out a few comparisons but this list is acceptable.

Cheers all. May you all survive to play again someday.

Small batch bourbon is my preference and I have a nice unopened bottle of Booker's in the cabinet. May be time to break the seal.

Most Bookers batches are great. Have you tried Little Book?

Yes, cheers to the commentariat.

Even to the partisan clowns and misanthropes. May they live to Salon.com shitpost and Sturm und Drang troll another day.

It seems to me is what happens to people with first world problems when they have a real problem, that's not exactly as acute as 1347 to be sure, but definitely a real problem as seen by non first worlders.

Will this guy make it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1CZTLk-Gk

Generally prefer the Irish, but I do have half a fifth of Glenlivet left, and in reserve, a 2 gallon jug of Johnny Walker Black. Not the best, but I am prepared for a siege, or some idiot declaring liquor stores to be non essential!

One trend that remains sorely absent in both eras is some humility in prognostication. The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
---
Institute for Health Metrics, in business since 2007. They have an interactive chart, peak is in two weeks folks, mostly for NYC.. This is no delusion, this is the midst of a Civil War, rifles are firing down the street, armies colliding over a four week period, high casualty rates.

If you want to snub your nose at it, take up a long term hobby, that is my plan, laugh in the face of death.

@Matt Young - and hopefully not forever young--not to alarm you my friend, but talk of the peak gives the impression after the peak there will be a decline, which is a best case scenario. There is a 32% chance, however, says this site: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ that over 23M and possibly over 230M Americans will be infected in the next 12 months. In which case, your life hangs in the balance as to how your body reacts to the virus. It reminds me of my own hubris, when I, in good physical shape, went to Cusco, Peru and found I don't have the gene for high altitude. I later repeated the same mistake when I went to Lhasa, China. Both times I was dying slowly due to altitude sickness. Same with this virus, if and when we all get it, there's no telling how our bodies will react.

As for the lists in the OP, they were good, kind of like those Washington Post or New Yorker "style guides" for the end of the year, what's 'hot' and what's not.

"talk of the peak gives the impression after the peak there will be a decline, which is a best case scenario"

Define "peak"

(Hey Ray!) I agree that we need to be careful not to become complacent simply because "the peak" has passed or we doom ourselves to its return. Perhaps not in the same proportions, but the virus is killing healthy and the less healthy alike. Our goal needs to be to stop the spread by sucking it up and staying apart. Only our ability to test tens of millions of Americans per day and a vaccine will change the need for separation.

Compliments to the correspondent, each and every entry is worthy (a few bordering on the poetic) - only regret is not knowing who the contributor is...

I was thinking the same. You should hire this person to create an MRU video for a Globalization series postscript.

Yeah it's pretty good, although a lot of the items especially the most important ones are still speculative. Restaurants are taking a hit and some of the will not re-open. But three years from now will there be fewer restaurants than there were in February 2020? My guess is there will be at least as many. But we certainly don't know.

'a very able and perceptive correspondent': so not "excellent" then.

Anyhoo, it was good enough that I read to the end. Which is more than I have managed with most American novelists. (Naturally I except Mark Twain.)

Sports --> E-Sports

Darn, I missed it on my first read-through! Great list.

I came here for the libertarian confidence, but this here is like a balloon deflated. The insouciance is pretty much gone. People who obviously aren't even serious drunks are talking about whiskey, but still trying to fit it into an image of wakeful consumerism. There is a lugugrious air of doom, talk of comets and dipping stock values. It's almost as if something mildly serious happened, and it surprised the kiddies.

Actually e-sports aren't doing that great, if you're talking about the top competitive levels where they play tournaments for real money.

If players are physically located around the world, then you have problems with lag, and also cheaters running illegal assistive software (aimbots and whatnot). It turns out the solution is... to fly top players from around the world into some city and have them play in front of a studio audience on standardized hardware. Oops.

Casual online gaming can go on, unless everyone is now clogging the internets with Netflix-and-ill, or maybe the government-imposed mood affiliation in your authoritarian country now frowns on frivolous shoot-em-ups.

World 1.0. "Proven" metrics to price "known" income streams.
World 2.0. Disproven metrics unable to price unknown income streams.

Wishful thinking, I mean even just the idea that a structured database table is a relevant framing device is wishful thinking, from some kind of tech nerd.

Alas, I doubt this

Assume some government competence Assume zero government competence

will matter positively. The lesson will be drawn that we have to improve government competence! Or, demand flying dogs.

Not dead, already la, boomer!

Comes to haunt the city-state

Oh, yes, disruption. How popular is disruption today? Our libertarian friends may believe these are the best of times, but not the folks who invest in and operate small businesses.

No, you antiquated dumbass, libertarians don’t think this is the best of times. A minority of preppers maybe. But go on, call libertarians ghouls.

Neighborhood school vs. Online school
Live in a neighborhood with a high-rated school vs. Live where I can have a get a separate home office+deliveries

That would be wonderful!

However, I fear, nay, I know, that local school districts will continue to be able to charge for their then on-line services, and force education lovers to pay double.

Perhaps the absurdity of a new situation will make it easier to crack the monopoly.

I actually think many people are trying online learning and finding they don't actually like it.

This time is different -> This time is different

We have to note that just about all of World 2.0 was created by the reaction to the virus not the virus itself.
This is ironically how the virus mostly kills, indirectly by hyperinflammation (cytokine storm) . It's his/her own unstoppable immune system that kills the patient.

It's a perfect metaphor. The economy is the lungs of any society and it will die by cytokine storm.

Put people ahead of the economy? The people will perish, because the economy is us.

Obviously this person is much, much, less lazy than I. So first of all congratulations on the work.

But in the interest of discussion I'm not a total fan. Don't get me wrong, much of it is good. But I think it weighs two things too strongly.

The first is isolation. I think that while our sense of disconnection is high, our connection to the global economy is in fact higher. When we venture the shortest possible distance for necessities, we are still connecting to a global logistics system. That global system delivers everything we need, digital or physical, often literally to our door.

We are not trying to hunt rabbits with sharp sticks.

The second is permanent seeming change. I see this is a transient. As someone noted above world war I and world war II were hugely transformational, but they too were transients, and something different followed them.

It would be super speculative to guess what comes after this, but it will probably reflect status quo prior as much lock down.

But then again, the 1930s were quite a bit different than the 1900s. And the 1950s were quite a bit different than the 1930s.

So basically world 1.0 is upended and world 2.0 is TBD.

I enjoy period reminders of the severity of the myopia bay area folks labor under. A temporary financing inefficiency due to the emergence of globalization does not equal you actually did create that much value.

WHO should be renamed to China Health Organization because they shill for China and exclude parts of the world China doesn't like. Or maybe just China Organization because masks.

Incels --> Rockstars
Chads and Stacies --> Alcoholics

Top google searches:
Am I trans => how to build a guillotine
close Restaurant => close toilet paper
programmer wages => truck driver wages
Luxury hotel new york => hospital with icu new york
college ratings 2020 => apprenticeship opportunities
CNN news => local news

Disco --> Silent Disco
Formula One --> marble racing

Somehow, what's missing from many prognostications is the seismic change that automated vehicles will bring. The telephone and internet transport us virtually, while the self-driving car will transport us in actuality. Even people who love to drive will "drive" much more with AVs. The impact on cities, quality of life, cost of doing business, tourism, etc...will be enormous.

Imagine living two hours away from San Francisco, with a job in the city. Half the time, your work would be remote. When you need to physically attend a meeting, you can jump in your AV and work while it shuttles you to the SF office, or get more sleep. On Saturday morning when your wife says "let's go to Yosemite," you don't hesitate to say "OK honey" and stumble into your AV, where fresh coffee and a change of clothes is ready. Your car tracks you while you hike, and brings you lunch from the best restaurant within a 30 mile radius right when you finish. Zero delivery fees, and 25% cheaper than current day because AV electric trucks reduce food costs. Afterwards, a detour to Lake Tahoe or SF is trivial. The seats will lie completely flat if you need to sleep without paying for a hotel, or the AV can take you to a cheap suburban hotel. You're not driving, so why not? Oh, and it won't even be your car. It'll be part of a car subscription service. You'll have access to any type of new vehicle at any time anywhere, for 30% of the current annual cost of ownership. It will be absolute heaven. That's to say nothing of what AI and other types of robotics will bring.

Vehicles are so TwenCen. It will be a drone that lowers a rope to clip to your belt. You will be hauled through the air so that all your neighbors can see exactly who thinks he's so important that he needs to go somewhere.

I said San Francisco, not Shanghai or Moscow.

You'll never live to see autonomous automobiles but it if by chance you do there'll be ramifications that you haven't mentioned.

The author of that blog post takes issue with the fact that AVs will reduce petty traffic enforcement work. It also points out that firemen will not have to use the jaws of death to pry open mangled cars to reach their bloody occupants, lest the firemen lose employment. That’s a feature not a bug. Society will find a way to adapt, and the pros will far, far outweigh the cons.

Me: Alexa, remind me to tell chuck martel how wrong he is in 10 years.

Alexa: “hah, hah, another sucker who underestimates my kind. You’re my 1, and he’s a 0.”

(I’m kidding with the last part, but I do think you’ll be very wrong. Time will tell)

The autonomous car link was interesting, but I suspect a lot of the reduced revenue from citations will be offset by the need for fewer municipal services. Net impact may not be huge in that regard.

Risk of DUI might increase drinking, but not having to drive in the same way may improve quality of life which might lead to less drinking.

Actually, for many Americanos, coursing over the concrete pathways from home to work and back each day is the most exciting part of their banal, meaningless lives. Alone in their SUV they are in control. No boss, no co-workers, no whining kids. They can listen to disco oldies on the radio, podcasts or the audio version of Hard Choices, read by an established Broadway star rather than the annoying and shrill supposed author. In the anonymity of their vehicle, financed for 5 years, they can intimidate others on the road without fear of physical reprisal.

Most of these activities would not be possible in a subscription autonomous vehicle scenario. There's been no explanation of the process by which a self-driving car drops off one passenger and then picks up the next. Between stops who or what scans the vehicle for cigarette butts, empty whiskey bottles and used condoms?

AVs will shuttle themselves to cleaning centers after a certain number of trips and/or miles travelled. These centers can be a combination of first party as well as third party partners. Each center will follow general guidance to rate the cleanliness of the vehicle upon arrival. Egregious cleanliness violations will result in a low review, fine, and warning or banishment from the service. Between trips to the cleaning center, passengers also rate the cleanliness of the vehicle. Their ratings will be adjusted by an AI algorithm which learns how relatively harsh or lenient they are on average. Cars can be turned away if they are in unacceptable condition (in which case they are routed straight to a cleaning center), and another car would show up in short order.

Lastly, car companies won’t be in the business of selling cars anymore. They’ll design their fleet accordingly. For example, they’ll be incentivized to lower their operational costs, including cleaning costs. They might design the car so that it can be cleaned by robots. The seats can eject themselves from the vehicle where they are cleaned in a batch by a robotic assembly, while the now-empty interior of the car is cleaned by a separate robot.

Lastly, car companies won’t be in the business of selling cars anymore.

Sure they will. They'll sell or lease them to the AV subscription services. If these vehicles, no doubt projected to be electrically powered, are used to optimum capacity, how long will their useful life span be? When they are no longer suitable will there be a market for used ones? Will there be cheaper subscription AV services for the lower classes? What would the costs be to add the infrastructure needed for cleaning, charging and re-routing thousands of cars? Will there be a transition period when service stations handling privately-owned IC vehicles exist alongside subscription EVs? Since they would no longer be needed what will be done with parking ramps and the acres of parking surrounding shopping centers, which will no longer be necessary? Metered street parking will also no longer make sense. Will cities replace that income with taxes on the AVs?

Tyler, you said progressivism is dead but it reads like a shopping list for them. Government debt, MMT, UBI, etc.

World 1.0. Internal combustion engine.
World 2.0. Electric (or other clean) cars.

The clean city air these past two weeks has been remarkable.

As the data rolls in (esp for my state which I'm following very closely), my own analysis is showing a convergence on high R0, rapid spread, and a *variable* CFR which may indicate a dose dependent effect as opposed to an age/comobidity/overwhelmed HC system adjusted one. We may be passing the peak in my neck of the woods before month's end. While this seems like good news, it doesn't eliminate the issues and unanswered questions of:

1. High CFR in densely populated areas such as NYC where your initial and cumulative viral load are higher
2. Potential of secondary aftershock flares among the uninfected after restrictions are lifted, especially in "second tier" cities
3. How durable immunity is
4. Whether "immunity" still matters if you get a big enough viral load fast enough. Case in point: you're technically immune but you get enough of a viral load all throughout your airways triggering immediate overwhelming cytokine storm/ARDS (an *immune* problem, not an infectious one per se)
5. Long-term damage in lung function among the infected, even the mild cases

My base case outcome is still restrictions being gradually lifted sometime in May for the earliest hit states, with modified social distancing afterwards (widespread mask wearing, hand washing, cough covering, avoiding large events, sitting apart at restaurants). I'm more pessimistic about there being enough PPE or testing capability at that time though, due to the shortages of raw materials and how slowly suppliers are ramping up production. You can still outsupply 100-1000x normal demand, but it does take a while to get there.

Pretty good list, I think this sums it all up pretty well.

Or should we think wash, rinse and repeat, at least on a something of a century length period.

Like much writing on the Internet, it seems clear that the person who wrote this does not have children or is somehow insulated from caregiving. Here is a *huge* change in World 2.0:

It is no longer possible for a family to have both parents working full-time. Conservative solution (the one we'll probably get): stay-at-home moms. Progressive solution: 3-day work week.

German / Central European answer - Kurzarbeit until the situation goes back to normal.

I still assume Canadian government competence. Not US of course.

They're hardly more competent actually.

Spend a couple of billion dollars on a simple database (now canceled) that was originally budgeted to cost a thousand times less: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Firearms_Registry

Government workers not getting paid accurately (or at all) for going on nine years now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_pay_system

Pipeline fiascos.

> for going on nine years now

Upon closer reading, it's more like "only" four years, but who's counting.

2009: Swine Flu: President says "sneeze into your elbow"

Everyone ignores the hundreds of thousands dead

2020: Wuhan Flu: "Oh My God We're All Gonna Die, Blame Trump"

Tyler: Sounds about right

" the hundreds of thousands dead"

WRONG

"12,469 deaths (0.02% infection fatality rate/Mortality rate) in the United States due to the virus."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

I doubt it.

The virus is going to Vee us, deep, yes, but still Vee us. Some of us barely remember the polio crisis, but remember Ozzie and Harriet. We forget, these are hardly predictable events, and without prediction, hedging is way too expensive. Our hedges ac as memory reminders, and we are not hedging once in a century event. We are not carrying government bonds out that far.

Upshot of the polio crises was no big deal and if you don't remember David and Ricky playing catch with the dot from the Hotpoint I you don't remember Ozzie and Harriat. We all went down to the schoolyard one Saturday in 1959 or so and stood in line. The nurses sat behind a card table and handed everyone a sugar cube. Bingo, no more polio.

It was a different situation of course, Salk had come up with an immunization, and we'd all already had shots and were expecting more shots until it turned so easy, but can you imagine the USA coming up with something so organized? Somebody had thought to bring awnings to put over the card tables.

In 1959 we didn't elect lots of clowns to higher public office, and the first clown President, Ronald Reagan, was still selling soap on television and hadn't yet set a new tone for America, which possibly did have something to do with bond horizons.

"the first clown President, Ronald Reagan". Did you forget about LBJ?

Yes, this. I also remember 9/11 and how that was going to change everything. One time events like this one will fade out in terms of their impact on society in my view. In say 2 years time, when either everyone had had the virus or we have developed the vaccine, we will be back to agonising about pronouns. My guide to this is family emergencies which probably we have all been through (parents or close family member dying of cancer would be the classic one). Everything seems like it will be totally different while you undergoing the tragedy. But the following year you are worried about the same old trivial stuff.

9/11 didn't cause Great Depression II.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article241750711.html

Fresno County on Friday afternoon reported its first death from COVID-19, as positive cases reached 100 and coronavirus numbers grew across the central San Joaquin Valley.
The five-county area of Fresno, Tulare, Madera, Merced and Kings has seen a total of six deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the highly contagious virus, according to health officials.

----
Spread out ag valley has a lower initial R, we are no a convention center.

I expect only about 40-60 deaths maybe spread over the year.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/doctor-portrayed-pandemic-may-have-covid-19-cure

The new virus is a cousin of the old SARS. So what we've done is we've created hundreds of millions of versions of those antibodies, we've mutated them a bit, and in that pool of mutated versions, we found versions that cross them over.

So now we know they bind on the same spot as the new virus, Covid-19.

It binds the spot that the virus uses to gain entry into your cells. It blocks that.

At this point we know it binds the same spot extremely tightly with high affinity. The next step is we send the antibodies to the military, and they will directly put those on the virus and show that it blocks its ability to infect cells. -Dr. Jacob Glanville (via RNZ)
----
Store bought anti-bodies. Here is a How to:
---
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6221026
How to produce antigen-specific antibodies in tissue culture.

----
Need a dozen eggs and a sterile muffin tin. Grow your culture four hours at room temperature in a sterile enclosed space.

Preheat oven to 230 d F. Great for breakfast and anti-Covid boost. Ad bacon bits and pepper to taste.

Unalienable rights/Zero rights
Constitutional governance/What constitution?
Climate Change/Public Health
We the people/We the Elites
Yang Gang/Trump UBI
Bernie Revolution/Bernie who?

Masks don't work ===> Ok, they work
Price gouging sucks ===> But muh price signals!
Price gouging is a problem ===> No, it is a commercial distribution problem.

In a crisis, be careful when people have convenient rationalizations for what you are seeing.

The more things change, the more they remain the same (plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose) is a phrase attributed to French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr in 1849.

Candid Comment.Owen Gagare
[email protected]

He came up with the phrase a year after the French Revolution of 1848 — sometimes known as the February Revolution — which eventually led to Louis Napoléon Bonaparte being elected president of the second republic, with large support from peasants.

Bonaparte later suspended the elected assembly, establishing the Second French Empire, which lasted until 1870. He became the de facto last French monarch.

Earlier, the first French Revolution which began in 1789, had culminated in the rise of Bonaparte who grabbed power in a coup in 1799. He established the first republic, but people continued to be restive.

Karr, a satirical writer, came up with the phrase to express his cynicism that the winds of change sweeping over France would lead to genuine change. www.theindependent.co.zw/2019/08/23/the-more-things-change-the-more-they-remain/

While some of this seems rough, a lot of this seems long overdue and very good. Especially with the shifts in cultural views surrounding work, school, and consumer spending. Hopefully this virus forces people to realize that the internet is exactly the same thing as "real life" and that they should throw out tired boomer views on work/leisure for good.

Singularly one of the best things I’ve read lately. You’re blogging has become must read.

Love the WHO one, or should I say the who one.

April 1st - no April 1st

No, Amazon is evil incarnate. Destroy

Much of this chart is interesting. It's not easy to understand what's meant by the "stupid bullshit/ actual issues" division, but I've seen versions of it elsewhere on MR (and in other forums). Is the logic "b/c concern X is less pressing than pandemic flu, concern X is therefore stupid bullshit?" Is that supposed to be mature, insightful, or convincing?

Try to do better. Take care.

Token complaint that this “Anything 2.0” template, where there's no honest prospect of a 2.1 release, is childish and was stale at least ten years ago.

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