Saturday assorted links

1. What the auction listing for a campus looks like.

2. As fewer kids played football, hospitals saw a big drop in ER visits.

3. Polite explanations of why so many professional athletes test positive for coronavirus (NYT).  Why can’t they just come out and write the likely truth about multiple sex partners?

4. Response to Peter Beinart.

5. Carrying cost of cruise ship > liquidity premium, at least for now (Bloomberg).

6. The shooting cops problem is much worse out in the west, and other regularities.

7. I do a 45-minute podcast with Dwarkesh Patel (he is interviewing me, mainly).  My only podcast where I use “the f word”?  (Not for any good reason, I just felt like it.)

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7) Yeah! You can take the boy out of Bergen County, but you can't take the Bergen County out of the boy...

Bergen County: Where a lot of wealthy Asians, Catholics, liberals, and conservative Jews somehow invent new ways to avoid killing each other.

It's a rather nice place, though no one knows how to drive and there are way to many people for no one to know how to drive.

Having grown up in Bergen County myself, I can tell you exactly how we avoid killing each other:

The first way is by saying "the f word"! A certain amount of verbal aggressiveness was tolerated there—more akin to an ethnic working-class environment than to the upper-middle-class environment Bergen County largely is technically. See the Sopranos for more on this.

The second way, related to the first, is by practicing "pragmatic multiculturalism." Growing up, I knew and told and laughed at all the ethnic jokes—Italian, black, Irish, and especially Jewish since that's what I am myself. Humor releases steam. And if we encountered a terrible driver on the roads, it was a good-natured guessing game whether it was an old Jew or a young Asian behind the wheel. Racism, stereotyping, tribalism, etc. were accepted as facts of life to be pragmatically and humorously managed rather than mortal sins to be surveilled and exterminated.

The triumph of Bergen County is the triumph of the "ethnic wealthy working class" ethos.

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The other secret to Bergen County's success, at least in the town I grew up in, is that we're happy to trade ethnic bigotry for socioeconomic bigotry, which is ruthlessly and unapologetically enforced. Anyone who was willing to spend the money and pay the property taxes to live in a town with a great school system had a place in my hometown—that included Jews, Koreans, Italians, even the sons and daughters of rappers. Anyone who wasn't willing...could die in a ditch for all we cared.

@Anon- those were the days my friend...and I think, sadly, they are being regulated away. Reading between the lines, Harvey Weinstein was a Bergen boy (in spirit) and look at him now: depending on his ex-wives for permission to tap into his own money for purposes of a legal appeal, in jail for a long time, ED issues (from the photos of him, perhaps he's faking it, but it doesn't look good), psychologically broken and bankrupt. For what? Lechery. The Casting Couch. Crude East Coast humor. The Sopranos have been regulated away by the PC crowd.

I am sorry but I do not see how you get from Bergen to Weinstein. Especially via lechery. HW was not undone by lechery. He has been lecherous for a long time. Probably his whole life. And everyone knew. They even made jokes about rape at the Oscars so it was socially acceptable. In those circles.

What did Harvey in was the Democrat's need to agitate White suburban women for the 2018 mid-terms. Hence MeToo. They were willing to throw a good many of their male supporters to the wolves in order to win votes with suburban White women. But not all their supporters. They were not willing to give up people like Keith Ellison or Bob Menendez. But Al Franken? Sure.

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Lechery isn't a crime. The crime was rape. People should be able to have a choice whether to fuck someone or not. That shouldn't be controversial on a libertarian blog.

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3) Because professional athletes are disproportionately *****.

Your first asterisk isn't in capitals.

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I find multiple sex partners an unlikely reason.
Even granting a stupendous amount of partners for top athlethes, this is surely dwarfed by simply hanging out with more bros/greeting fans/a lot of huffing and puffing in the gym spreading virus particles particularly well.

These guys for a very large amount of their lives have been hanging around their posse, who do all their menial tasks and tell them how awesome they are 24/7. You're going to deprive them of that?

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A cruise ship, an airplane, or an evening at a night club is a way more efficient way to get COVID than a new partner every day. In a month you'd only see 30 people at most while you deal with hundreds on a plane, thousands at an airport, and thousands on a ship. Even practice with the rest of crew will easily run you into dozens in just one go.

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Why do you post NYT articles? A person can't get in there and most articles are tremendously biased.

If you can’t read them, how do you know they are tremendously biased

He is a faith reader, like many commenters here.

Maybe the freebies are enough to convince the reader that, yes, the articles are tremendously biased.

Especially if you are familiar with the unbiased objectivity that marks such sources as Fox or Breitbart, it is obvious that the NYT and CNN are biased. A discerning non-faith reader ignores them all. Primary sources are so much better to use, though you may find yourself not fitting into any discussion involving people who rely on a couple of news source,

Worse, you may find they cannot imagine people having different viewpoints that have nothing to do with social media at all.

Or maybe the bias of Fox News and Breitbart is just as obvious as the bias of the NYT. But Tyler doesn’t link to Fox News.

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Yes, Fox and CNN are biased similar to the NYT, and much worse than good news sources like Reuters and Al-Jazeera

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NYTimes defines far Left Marxism. The Swiss newspaper of record eve sees it. In June, Neue Zurcher Zeitung declared that the NYTimes was no longer serious and not a real newspaper - no better than FoxNews.

The German speaking world is slow to catch up with change in foreign lands. But in this case, they are finally korrect.

1. Source. Provide a link.

2.The NZZ is the most right-wing “serious” newspaper in the German speaking world.

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https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome

Takes 2 minutes of effort to install but haven't had an issue with paywalls since

How do you get access to The Economist, please.

Don’t bother. The Economist has gone “mild woke.” And it used to be the outlet slash byword for a fiscal conservative and socially liberal, pro market but not extreme neoliberal point of view, with a nice tinge of “sensible-shoes“ Toryism around the edges. No more.

Hasn't been that for a good 20 years.

It still has world wide coverage

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There's still, I'd guess, a useful distinction between the papers that omit and twist interpretation and liberally lard with opinion in a way that elides between fact and opinion, but still include actual true facts... and those papers that you can't trust to include facts.

NYT is still more the former? You can pick out actually true information enough that it's worth it, and work around the elisions and omissions and spin. (Another example being the Grauaniad's news coverage, though of course their opinion section is a ridiculous wasteland of actively brain damage inducing student-level nonsense).

It's also useful to follow such a publication in a "Know thy enemy's latest line of spin" sort of way and to check how the spin evolves over time. In the same manner that I imagine Fox News probably gets a significant portion of readership / viewers from outrage seeking twitter-outrage Progs, rather than actually the supposed Conservative base, and in the same manner that the Financial Times gets a lot of its readership from serious Left wingers studiously following Chomsky's advice to read what the haut-bourgeois uses to tell itself what's really going on.

(If you're attentive you can see morphs in stance and emphasis in spin over time - https://twitter.com/AndyGrewal/status/1282081301219205120 - MSNBC, March 14 - "At the end of February and early March, Trump had become fixated on masks. He was annoyed that the government was telling people not to wear them and would angrily ask scientists and health officials in private why — if they don’t help — do doctors wear them?").

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+1, hilarious. The food is like poison and such small portions.

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6. The numbers don't add up. Everything is relative. One ratio does not a conclusion make. The law of small numbers? A lot depends on the social milieu. What is the ratio to welfare recipients and generational poverty of democratic party areas?

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6. County police departments with either elected or appointed leaders seem like a better idea all the time.

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How, exactly, do you liquidate cruise ships TODAY? Who is buying them?

What a silly theory.

Scrap metal, Lots of it.

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If they are cheap enough, they could be housing. When the US Military started selling surplus after World War II, they launched thousands of businesses and careers based on cheap trucks, boats, quonset huts and so on. Just brokering the stuff became an industry.

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3. Is this a joke? (Referring to Tyler's comment)

No, that is not the sort of thing TC jokes about. He likes to joke about saying fuck, not fucking

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2. I wonder if the NFL is currently at its peak? The league has almost no international pool of talent to draw from like other professional sports.

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Tyler, I'm very much surprised by the lack of MR posts on opening schools and universities. Both Alex and you work in a public university and have written many times about education, including online education.

I'm now in favor of defunding public schools and universities, even if they open this Fall for presential education. Yes, I know you are going to argue the large returns of human capital, but frankly, I think they have changed so much that I doubt the returns are large for the top 50 percent. They may even be negative for the bottom 25 percent. And if they don't open I hope federal funds are reallocated in a way to support homeschooling and on-the-job-training of young people.

You have many colleagues to talk about those issues and I hope you report back to us on your conversations. I welcome references to recent studies that assess the current state of schools and universities.

+1. Specifically elementary and high school education. There are obvious topics like teacher and student safety, but I am seeing more interesting trends in neighborhood boards.

APS just announced a proposal to start a week later and start remotes. Parents seem pretty upset with how distance learning went in the fall and are already creating or planning to create study groups, rec sports leagues. They’re talking about creating parent group of volunteers to supplement teacher zoom sessions and exploring private tutoring both online and off.

I wonder if this portends a growth in home schooling? It certainly seems like parents in my neighborhood are thinking about a blended model now. It would be interesting to explore the implications for further socioeconomic disparities as I’m sure poorer communities lack the same proportion of parents willing to supplement public school zoom sessions. And probably a larger portion of poor parents who could even help with math, reading, or science.

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Or more accurately, scrap dough, as the article states. Breakers will always liquidate a ship at a low, low price.

Google Alang Shipbreaking. Or better, view on Google Earth.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marineinsight.com/environment/alang-gujarat-the-world%25E2%2580%2599s-biggest-ship-breaking-yard-a-dangerous-environmental-time-bomb/amp/

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4. Witlessly meandering response to what is a silly idea and can be stated as such in a paragraph or two.

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#6: Given the challenges in figuring out how many people are policed by say the LA County sheriff's department, I wonder if it would be better to measure fatal police shootings per officer instead of per capita.

Counting "officers" of course has its own challenges: some of them have desk jobs, maybe some departments have a lot of overtime whereas others work shorter hours, etc.

But those challenges might be smaller than the ones associated with estimating the population under a sheriff.

And then there's the state patrol -- if someone robs a bank in downtown LA and the LAPD chases them onto the freeways joined the highway patrol and they end up fleeing to a junkyard in unincorporated LA County where they get shot down in a barrage of bullets including some from sheriff's deputies: which department gets "credited" with the shooting?

No department, since we don't bother collecting stats on officer involved killings.

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1. Will this become a common sight? I've been predicting Goodbye, Columbus! for a while, but I never considered a pandemic as the trigger. I thought it would be the economics: the cost and value don't align. What will formerly college campuses be used for? An analogy would be all those corporate campuses that sprouted up along expressways in the suburbs, in my part of the country mainly to house "backroom operations" for the real (income generating) businesses located in places like NYC. As backroom operations moved to cheaper locations (i.e., overseas), these corporate campuses have been converted to many uses, but megachurch campuses possibly the optimal. After all, the demand for what megachurches offer comes mostly from the burbs and, like the backroom operations that once occupied these campuses, megachurches are occupied by true believers. As for formerly college campuses, they were intended as indoctrination centers, so converting them to religious retreats makes perfect sense. Amen. Goodbye, Columbus! He was a bigoted white male and should be knocked off his pedestal.

I recently visited my former home in the low country, and I took my Boykin Spaniel with me. There's a very nice Methodist retreat located there, so I checked the website for availability. Not to be. On the website, in all caps, it stated: NO ALCOHOL OR PETS ALLOWED. My Boykin was greatly offended, not for the discrimination against dogs, but the ban on alcohol. My advice for those who wish to convert formerly college campuses to religious retreats, don't prohibit dogs that enjoy a glass of wine in the evenings. If you do, the campus will soon return to the auction block.

Offense meant, but spaniels seem like the dogs who would get the least out of college.

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3. NHL, NBA, MLB, and MLS are all team sports. I didn't see any golf, tennis, or NASCAR in their writeup.

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1. green mountain college sure is pushing the sustainability buzzword
angle in the real estate listing for a college that proved unsustainable
2 mucho under-rated is this part-" the authors think the injury rates are underestimated, since this report addresses only kids who were treated at the ER. "
5. mostly over-rate=cruises on postmodern cruise ships
7 fuck! Dr. Cowen an new book imminent
best podcast yet

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Re pro sports and COVID: soccer reboots on England and Germany — let alone Italy and Spain! — have successfully avoided any COVID issues. This isn’t a pro athlete issue per se; it’s (yet another) USA issue.

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It's not an original thought but if there were a disease that crippled as many young men as high school football does, billions would be spent trying to find a cure.

Then why isn’t anyone working on the cure for youth? Or is that what our education system is doing?

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#3 Yet, Brazil has been able to resume its football (soccer) championships without problem. Maybe institutions and leadership matter after all.

No problems with football and coronavirus in Brazil? This I have to see. Do you have the source for your statement?

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#5. A couple of months ago, there was a lucrative opportunity in crude oil storage. But that ship has sailed, so to speak.

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Threadjack:
Why are conservatives so big on opening public schools this fall? Why not instead lobby to allow daycares to care for kids up age 12 (when it's legal to leave them along at home). This could be a golden opportunity to subvert the public education system. If daycares have to get into the business of caring for 5-12 year olds, governments are going to have a hard time explaining why they can't offer a primary school curriculum.

The percentage of Americans who wish to “subvert the public education system” is a rounding error.

The vast majority of Americans rate their local public schools as “good” but ....handwaves.....believe the system is failing in general.

Something something Congress and local congressman

MANY conservatives support "vouchers" for private education.

So .... institute a tax credit or something as an "emergency" COVID measure to help parents pay for "childcare" for older children while the public schools remain closed.

And, ya know, use the money you save by keeping schools closed to pay for it.

No one will save money with the schools being closed, all of the salaries are still being paid.

Tax credits won’t affect many of the low income families (almost entirely single mother) since they don’t earn enough income to claim the credit anyways.

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3) The percent of players testing positive in baseball was much lower than basketball or hockey. I believe there is an economic reason for this, as the NBA and NHL pretty much completed the regular season, so their athletes were already paid. MLB players getting paid depended on a season taking place, and an infection rate of 5% might have canceled the season entirely. So baseball players had a much bigger incentive to stay healthy.

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1. Who knows if the college bubble is about to pop. But link gave me an idea for a sub-plot in my upcoming utopian, libertarian sci-fi novel set in 2150:
A homicide detective (cops and robbers stories are timeless) investigates a lead through the Cornell Hazard Zone. All sorts of scary creatures (human, animal, plant, and some admixtures) reside there, due to the lingering effects of a limited bio-chemical-nuclear strike from the civil strife of 2045.
My detective's handler in the Hazard Zone will do the exposition regarding Hazard Zone history. So I'll take some time to get the "Strike of '45" backstory right. But this is a utopian novel, so if I think happy thoughts, logical & sound reasons will follow.

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2. Can we reconcile "Americans should take risks and not be complacent" with "don't play football because you might get injured"? (I just re-read the compelling The Complacent Class this week.)
This issue is difficult for me. I do not like seeing America's young men get permanently downgraded by repeated head blows and other injuries. On the other hand, young men have violent tendencies. Who's to say that the absence of football is not worse?

Yes, I wondered the same thing. Maybe kids need a violent sport to build themselves and mature. Without it, they are healthier but feckless.
The challenge is to develop the closest mimicry of war or solo adventure you can but with the highest survival and effectiveness rate possible. Effectiveness is a reduction in complacency/fecklessness.
Sports has been good at this but are we moving too far down the safety side? Or has football just gotten too violent and this is merely a recalibration?

Have them wrestle. It’s a much tougher sport-an order of magnitude better conditioning, there is no incentive to be fat (unlike football). It is a real combat sport- football is a contact sport (despite what Vince Lombardi claims). It also has a venue for the smaller kids.

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My sense is the reason most people get shot by the police is because they have a gun and are acting irrationally. Note how much the average age of those getting shot exceeds the average age of those committing violent crimes. Lots of domestic disturbances. A drunken argument that ends with a shirtless guy on his Bergen County lawn waving around his Derek Jeter autographed bat is less likely to end in a police shooting then the same guy with his Glock in Albuquerque.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/585155/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-age-group/

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Peter Moskos mentions some great reports on Baltimore police mismanagement. HR is not maintaining their personnel database, listing 70 retirees as active employees, and 200 active employee records.

https://fop3.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Mismanagement-Report-October-2019-Web.pdf

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Off topic: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-coronavirus-deaths-long-expected-worse.html - an even-handed article on the eventual CV19 death increases that are showing up in the US - "Researchers now expect deaths to rise for at least some weeks, but some think the count probably will not go up as dramatically as it did in the spring—for several reasons.

First, testing was extremely limited early in the pandemic, and it's become clear that unrecognized infections were spreading on subways, in nursing homes and in other public places before anyone knew exactly what was going on. Now testing is more widespread, and the magnitude of outbreaks is becoming better understood.

Second, many people's health behaviors have changed, with mask-wearing becoming more common in some places. Although there is no vaccine yet, hospitals are also getting better at treating patients.

Another factor, tragically, is that deadly new viruses often tear through vulnerable populations first, such as the elderly and people already weakened by other heath conditions. That means that, in the Northeast at least, "many of the vulnerable people have already died," Halkitis said.

Now, the U.S. is likely in for "a much longer, slower burn," Hanage, the Harvard researcher, said. "We're not going to see as many deaths (as in the spring). But we're going to see a total number of deaths, which is going to be large.".

A thought on this is that, comparing the US to Europe, it's a fair comment that Texas re-opened only at about the same level of death as Austria did...

But at the same time, Austria did not have open borders to a region that still had very high infection levels, which did happen in the US - the levels of imported infections hitting the South were probably pretty high.

Again, I guess if the NE of the USA had voluntarily isolated themselves from the rest of the country at a higher rate, earlier, those outcomes could've been improved.

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I love looking at sales listings for oddball items like industrial machinery, securities derivatives and commercial real estate like that college campus. You get to see in a capsule what the kind of people who might buy such an item consider important. Thanks for posting the link.

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6. In most officer-involved killings, the person killed is carrying a weapon. I wonder how much of the correlation to western states (and Florida) is a function of higher rates of gun ownership there.

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