For any given output, I suspect fewer people will read my work. You don’t have to think the GPTs can copy me, but at the very least lots of potential readers will be playing around with GPT in lieu of doing other things, including reading me. After all, I already would prefer to “read GPT” than to read most of you. I also can give it orders more easily. At some point, GPT may substitute directly for some of my writings as well, but that conclusion is not required for what follows.
I expect I will invest more in personal talks, face to face, and also “charisma.” Why not?
Well-known, established writers will be able to “ride it out” for long enough, if they so choose. There are enough other older people who still care what they think, as named individuals, and that will not change until an entire generational turnover has taken place.
I expect the entire calculus here is very different for someone who is twenty years old, and I hope to write more on that soon.
Today, those who learn how to use GPT and related products will be significantly more productive. They will lead integrated small teams to produce the next influential “big thing” in learning and also in media. Most current contributors will miss that train almost entirely, just as so many people missed the importance of the internet for learning and also for media. But we still don’t know how important this “next big thing” will be, for instance, compared to YouTube.
In the short run, using GPT for ideas and inspiration will be more important than using it for copy. Like blogging, I am happy when people attack it, because that raises the moat surrounding it.
Overall the trajectory of change is very difficult to predict, as are the forthcoming technological developments themselves.