AGI is Coming
ARSTechnica: On Monday, researchers from Microsoft introduced Kosmos-1, a multimodal model that can reportedly analyze images for content, solve visual puzzles, perform visual text recognition, pass visual IQ tests, and understand natural language instructions. The researchers believe multimodal AI—which integrates different modes of input such as text, audio, images, and video—is a key step to building artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can perform general tasks at the level of a human.
In 2020 Metaculus forecasters were predicting weak general AI by around 2053. Now they are predicting weak general AI by 2028 and strong general AI which includes:
- Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators and when given human-readable instructions, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) circa-2021 Ferrari 312 T4 1:8 scale automobile model. A single demonstration of this ability, or a sufficiently similar demonstration, will be considered sufficient.
I never expected to witness the birth of aliens. It is a very strange time to be alive. If you think the world isn’t changing in a very uncertain and discontinuous way you just aren’t paying attention.