The paradox of thrift

Matt Yglesias offers a clear, non-technical explanation.  I would add a few points:

1. If wages are relatively flexible in the downwards direction, it is easier to avoid the downward spiral from falling aggregate demand.  There is an odd tension (though not contradiction) between the view that a stimulus is necessary and the Progressive view that workers don't have much bargaining power and that bargaining power really matters.

2. Savings are especially likely to fail to translate into investment when the banking system is messed up. That applies today, but Keynes was not sufficiently aware of the importance of this condition.

3. Prior to the collapse, savings out of income in this country were approximately zero.  So the notion of "people ending up saving less" has to mean a rising ratio of debt to gdp.  That's OK for the argument, but now it gets complicated.

For instance, instead of "saving more" the core action under consideration might be to pay down some debt instead of spending money on consumption.  But what does the creditor do with those funds?  Are dollars sent to creditors "low velocity dollars" rather than "high velocity dollars"?  Maybe, but of course they don't have to be.  If the citizenry is paying back to creditors who engage in active lending (or for that matter rapid consumption), and make new loans rapidly, things can be OK.  If the citizenry is paying money back to zombie banks, maybe those banks just sit on the cash.  (How much of the money is going to zombie banks?)

A lot of claims about the paradox of thrift depend on having a good handle on which micro-sectors of the economy breed high vs. low velocities of money.  We don't always have such information.  The whole notion of how money can get trapped in "low velocity circuit," beyond simple observations about first-round effects (the poor spend a higher percentage of their incomes than the rich), is receiving insufficient attention.

The "Treasury view" that you can treat monetary velocity as constant is wrong.  But there's a lot about monetary velocity which we don't understand, or at least which we have not yet applied to the current problems at hand.

How to travel in the U.S.

Seth, a loyal MR reader, writes:

I thoroughly enjoyed your 'Discover Your Inner Economist Book' and I was particularly interested in your advice related to restaurants, and on how to read menus.

Perhaps it's a stretch, but I was wondering whether you have similar advice for traveling in the US?  If someone who has never previously visited the US asked you for five places they should visit in the US, what would be your advice?  Or perhaps more generally, what should  they look for in their destinations?  Assume they're driving, and budget isn't an issue, and that it's not a requirement to see the most popular tourist spots.  What's the best advice to properly see and experience the US, in all its diversity?

Most of all, drive as much as possible and do not shy away from a few days in the "boring" (yet wondrous) suburbs.  After that, here is my list of five:

1. Manhattan

2. Detroit and the Ford Rouge plant in Dearborn

3. Memphis and the Mississippi Delta

4. San Francisco

5. Grand Canyon and southern Utah

I feel bad about missing so much of "the new South," but how many stellar sights does it have?  Miami and New Orleans would make a top ten but each is too unique and insufficiently representative to make a top five.  Maybe Chicago should replace Detroit but the latter has greater shock value and isn't that half of what travel is about?  Los Angeles is too hard for most outsiders to grasp.  At least one of the Dakotas should make a top ten list.  Boston would please a European but not in a truly instructive way.  It is criminal to leave off Texas, which I love, but which single place can sum up the state?

The World Between the Wars, 1919-1939: An Economist’s Perspective

I don't know why this book, by Joseph C, Davis, isn't cited more often, as it's one of the best on this period.  Here is one small bit:

In the spring of 1933 a mock-trial of "the economists" was staged at the London School of Economics, Robert Boothby, M.P. representing "the state of the popular mind," charged the economists with "conspiring to spread mental fog," declaring that they "were unintelligible; that they had in general proved wrong; and that in any case they all disagreed."  Four men of high standing (Sir William Beveridge, Sir Arthur Salter, Professor T.E. Gregory, and Hubert Henderson) discussed Boothby's charges without wholly refuting them.  It was sagely observed: "Much of the public's distrust of economics arises from the fact that the economist is compelled to act both as physiologist and doctor at once."  In fact, economists had not been trained to be "economic doctors" or "social engineers," and very few persons had acquired such competence.

I wonder if anyone will restage such a trial today…

html query

In the "good old days," under the old typepad, block quotations received the same spacing as written text by Alex and me.  These days, under the new and "improved" typepad (it's worse), imported block quotations are spaced more tightly.  But not always, I might add.  What can I do to the underlying html to correct for this?  I preferred it the old way.

Your assistance is appreciated.

It's funny, by the way, that typepad's spell checkers don't recognize the word "typepad."

A liberal on libertarians

Joshua Cohen:

We think that politics is more than an unfortunate necessity required
by our inability to live together without killing each other. We think
it is, can be anyway, an arena in which we work out and pursue,
sometimes with notable success, large and constructive purposes. When I
think about the history of democracy in the past century, and think
about its greatest achievements of domestic policy, the areas of real
moral progress, I think of civil rights, women’s equality, and the
halting fight against a class society. With respect, classical liberals
were in the rearguard in every one of these struggles. And for a simple
reason: in each case, the struggle depended on a willingness to fight
against inequality, subordination, exclusion through political means,
through the dread state. And if you mix your classical liberal values
with the classically conservative predisposition to think that politics
is at best futile, at bad perverse, at worst risks what is most
fundamental, then you will always celebrate these gains when the fight
is over: always at the after party, inconspicuous at the main event,
and never on the planning committee.

Hat tip is from Henry, who adds commentary and another link.

Stimulus update

From Dan Drezner:

I'm hard-pressed to believe that just another $100 billion in stimulus is the difference between recovery and grass huts.

This,
by the way, is the most pernicious effect of the entire financial
meltdown on fiscal policy.  When $100 billion no longer seems like a
significant sum of money, it's time for a good stiff drink. 

Yes a slightly cheaper version of the stimulus is about to pass.  Here is some detail on the composition of the Senate bill.  The final combined bill,as it will come out of conference, might be worse yet.  And here are details of the new banking plan.

Keynes on cutting the payroll tax in a downturn

It seems he favored the idea.  Mario Rizzo directs me to his letter to James Meade, circa 1942:

I
am converted to your proposal…for varying rates of contributions in
good and bad times. (June 16, 1942). Keynes, Collected Writings, vol.
27, p. 208. 

…[Y]ou
are able to show fluctuations in income of an order of magnitude which
is significant in the context… So far as employees are concerned,
reductions in contributions are more likely to lead to increased
expenditure as compared with saving than a reduction in income tax
would, and are free from the objection to a reduction in income tax
that the wealthier classes would benefit disproportionately. At the
same time, the reduction to employers, operating as a mitigation of the
costs of production, will come in particularly helpfully in bad times.  (July 1, 1942). Keynes, Collected Writings, vol. 27, p. 218.

Will today's Keynesians follow suit?

One of Greg Mankiw’s ideas

Read the whole post, for Greg's full set of prescriptions, but this idea I had not previously considered:

I recognize that some state governments are now struggling in light of
the macroeconomic crisis. For the next two years, I would let each
state governor have the authority to divert a portion of the payroll
tax cut in his or her state and take the funds instead as state aid.
This provision would essentially be giving governors the temporary
authority to impose a payroll tax on his or her citizens, collected via
the federal tax system. Those governors who think they have valuable
infrastructure projects ready to go would take the money. When
designing a fiscal stimulus, there is no compelling reason for one size
fits all. Let each governor make a choice and answer to his or her
state voters. It is called federalism.

And here is Greg on the broken window fallacy, worth a read.

Salsa Dancing Into the Social Sciences

The author is Kristin Luker and the subtitle is Research in an Age of Info-Glut.  I enjoyed this book very much and I thought it was one of the best books on the philosophy of the social sciences I have read, ever.  In part it is good because it ignores philosophy of science (and Continental philosophy gobbledy-gook) and focuses on the anthropology of how research is actually done.  Here is the author's summary of her message

Let's review the state of play.  I've told you that "methods" in the social sciences are historically, socially, and politically located in both time and place.  I've also told you that the methods most commonly taught (canonical social science, "normal science") grew out of a particular time and place, namely postwar America.  I've tried to convince you that in this new postmodern, globalizing world, those old methods don't work as well as they used to, at least not for the kinds of problems that most of us are interested in these days.  Finally, I have argued that a whole set of "practices," that is, taken-for-granted ways of doing things that aren't even at the level of consciousness most of the time, grew out of those old methods and now must be rethought by those of us whose contributions will consist of making connections across boundaries, rather than following the normal-science way of making incremental contributions to a deep but narrow part of our fold.

There's much more to the book than that quotation indicates.  Recommended.

Jessica Crispin reads

I am a very keen and regular reader of Bookslut and here is Jessica Crispin:

I have been happily reading Timothy Clack's Ancestral Roots: Modern Living and Human Evolution,
although it covers so many areas I occasionally wish some things had
been expanded. Like the monkeys who went on hunger strike until all
monkeys were receiving grapes. Or the evolutionary explanation for
"beer goggles." Although my favorite part was when he mentioned a study
where women "politely" asked men for no strings attached sex and they
counted how many agreed. (Less than you would think.) So many
questions! Were the results different if they "belligerently demanded"
casual sex? Did they go through with the sex, or did they just say,
"Okay, just wanted to know if you were interested. I'm going home now."
Because that seems mean. I need to find the original study.

The link is here, but that is all there is.

Worry less about releasing Virginia prison inmates

This was the advice some of you gave me when I argued you should "Worry Less About Releasing Terrorists."  Now it may come to pass.  Virginia may release some of its non-violent (are they really?) inmates early.  I guess we need to save money so the public libraries can stay open for my regular use.

The real lesson is that whenever there is an issue of justice or desert or payback involved, the quality of economic analysis offered by most people, whether academics or MR commentators, declines.

In any case, I am not very worried about the inmates either.  Call it measurement error and bring 'em on!

“Small steps toward a much better world”

First, better than what? I suppose it’s better than the world we have now; but then the “world” of the slogan is not a whole possible world, which would persist throughout time, but rather a temporal segment or slice of a possible world. We don’t now “have” a whole world; what we have is the present time-slice of the world. Or you might say that what we have is the whole past-and-present–the temporal segment of the world from the Beginning to Now; but this would be less suitable for comparison with what you are striving toward, so I will assume that the present time-slice or “state-of-affairs” is the intended standard of comparison.

Then the target is a better (momentary) state-of-affairs rather than a better whole possible world, or a better whole future. Now, the latter, not the former, should be your ultimate or most basic objective; but, admittedly, it might be acceptable tactically to aim at the former. That is, in order to maximize the value of the whole future–which should be the aim–you might aim for “a much better (momentary) state-of-affairs,”to come into being at some point in the future.

And what point might that be; when is the much better state-of-affairs supposed to come into existence? That is being left indefinite (though,presumably, sooner is better than later).

I interpret “steps toward a (particular) state-of-affairs” as actions (perhaps mere “speech acts”) that make that state-of-affairs more probable. But these actions may also have other effects that ought to be considered, such as making some other state-of-affairs–perhaps quite a bad one–more probable. This points up a serious deficiency: the slogan is blind to risk, failing to incorporate hedging. The circumstance that a certain step that is “toward” a better state-of-affairs (i.e., that makes it more probable) is at the same time also “toward” a worse one should dampen your enthusiasm for taking the step; this is not reflected in the slogan.

There are probably infinitely many possible states-of-affairs, but for expository purposes let me pretend that the number is finite–say, a million. Let us rank these by value. The best will be S1, the worst S1,000,000 (I’ll ignore ties); the actual present state-of-affairs is somewhere in between–say, S100,000. {As you can see, this email program is incapable of representing the numbers as subscripts.}  

There is, for each of these possible states-of-affairs, some probability that it will eventually become actual, given what we have now. The slogan endorses actions that will increase the probability of one of these states-of-affairs–call it ‘Sn’. But this favored possible state-of-affairs is not specified as S1, the best of them. Indeed, I assume n ≠ 1, since the slogan says “much better” rather than “best.” Since Sn is to be better than S100,000, we have 1 < n < 100,000, and since it is much better it must be closer to 1 than to 100,000; let us say 1 < n < 30,000. But beyond this it is completely obscure what  n is or how it was selected. If n is, say, 10,189, you are aiming to make the eventual occurrence of S10,189 more probable. But the motivation for doing precisely this is hardly evident.

Finally, the “small steps” phrase is, presumably, intended as an expression of modesty. But why limit yourself to small steps? If you can take big steps to improve matters, do it! On the other hand, why restrict yourself to optimism? If you can make the world better, of course, do it; but maybe things appear likely to get worse, no matter what you do. You might even find yourself in a situation where there are no steps you can take “toward” Sn for any n < 100,000, perhaps because Prob (Sn/A) = 0, for any n < 100,000 and any possible action A (given that we are in S100,000). It would be well to cover this possibility, too, by presenting yourself as stepping toward the best (in this case, least bad) possible future.

My proposal for reform, then, is simply to advertise yourselves as intending to act in ways that promote maximum expected value throughout the future; in short: “Acting to maximize expected future value.” (If that’s not your intention, why not?)

The bottom line: I believe that James is a kindred spirit and that he indeed lives "Small steps toward a much better world."