Markets in everything

The latest is pre-sale passwords for early access to concert tickets, here is the ebay listing.  Here is an excellent article on how concerts sell out much more quickly than before.  The old days of getting there early and waiting in line seem to be gone:

Combined with the selling efficiency of the Internet and swelling competition from scalpers, “your chances of getting a great seat after a concert goes on sale are almost non-existent,” says Arizona State University economist Steve Happel, a concert business expert. “Tickets are gone in a heartbeat.”

Is Grade Inflation All Bad?

Grade inflation has not been constant through time.  Mark Thoma at Economist’s View offers some hypotheses.

Gradeinflation

There are two episodes that account for most grade inflation. The first
is from the 1960s through the early 1970s. This is usually explained by
the draft rules for the Vietnam War. The second episode begins around
1990 and is harder to explain….

My
study finds an interesting correlation in the data. During the time
grades were increasing, budgets were also tightening inducing a
substitution towards younger and less permanent faculty. I broke down
grade inflation by instructor rank and found it is much higher among
assistant professors, adjuncts, TAs, instructors, etc. than for
associate or full professors. These are instructors who are usually
hired year-to-year or need to demonstrate teaching effectiveness for
the job market, so they have an incentive to inflate evaluations as
much as possible, and high grades are one means of manipulating student
course evaluations.

But what are the consequences of grade inflation?  A new study takes advantage of a tres bon experiment.  In May of 1968 French students rioted, were suppressed by the police, but then joined by 10 million striking workers leading to a near revolutionary situation.  To quiet things down many students that year were accepted to universities which in former and later years they would not have qualified for.  What happened to those students?

Eric Maurin and Sandra McNally write:

We show that the lowering of thresholds at an early (and highly selective stage) of the higher education system enabled a significant proportion of students born between 1947 and 1950 (particularly in 1948 and 1949) to pursue more years of higher education that would otherwise have been possible. This was followed by a significant increase in their subsequent wages and occupational attainment, which was particularly evident for persons coming from a middle-class family background.  Finally, returns were transmitted to the next generation on account of the relationship between parental education and that of their children.

The results are surprising but consistent with Bowen and Bok who argue that affirmative action did not harm minority students who were accepted at universities at which they would not have qualified based on grades alone.

I’m puzzled but not yet ready to retire my reputation as a tough grader – my best students deserve no less.

Comments are open.

What ever happened to Fleming and John?

Fleming and John made two of my favorite CDs the excellent Delusions of Grandeur and the even-better The Way We Are.  In the words of one reviewer:

Vocalist Fleming McWilliams’s voice soars from a waifish whisper to a Joplin-esque
wail to operatic diva, often in the same song. Multi-instrumentalist
John Painter assembles a dizzying palette of sounds, from buzzy,
riff-heavy guitars to horns, accordion, Middle Eastern percussion, and
theremin, which yields a general sense of weirdness–all set in a
perfectly pop context–while the Love Sponge String Quartet add sonic
depth and a Van Dyke Parks quality to several arrangements.

The lyrics are also great.  When these albums appeared in the mid 1990s I thought these guys were going to be superstars and yet I’m about the only person I know who knows about them.  Although they can be labeled pop/rock almost none of their songs follows a pop/rock formula and that may have reduced airplay.  Their official website hasn’t been updated in years.  If you run out and buy their albums or blog about them perhaps we can create enough economies of scale to induce a new album.

Simple advice for academic publishing

Last week I gave a talk on career and publishing advice to a cross-disciplinary audience of graduate students.  Here were my major points:

1. You can improve your time management.  Do you want to or not?

2. Get something done every day.  Few academics fail from not getting enough done each day.  Many fail from living many days with zero output.

3. Figure out what is your core required achievement at this point in time — writing, building a data set, whatever — and do it first thing in the day no matter what.  I am not the kind of cultural relativist who thinks that many people work best late at night.

4. Buy a book of stamps and use it.  You would be amazed how many people write pieces but never submit and thus never learn how to publish. 

5. The returns to quality are higher than you think, and they are rising rapidly.  Lower-tier journals and presses are becoming worth less and less.  Often it is the author certifying the lower-tier journal, rather than vice versa.

6. If you get careless, sloppy, or downright outrageous referee reports, it is probably your fault.  You didn’t give the editor or referees enough incentive to care about your piece.  So respond to such reports constructively with a plan for self-improvement, don’t blame the messenger, even when the messenger stinks.  Your piece probably stinks too.

7. Start now.  Recall the tombstone epitaph "It is later than you think."  Darth Sidious got this one right.

8. Care about what you are doing.  This is ultimately your best ally.

Here is a good article on academic book publishing and how it is changing.

Insurance, medical and otherwise

I’ve three times tried to get insurance reimbursement from Allstate, and three times they have — in unambiguous cases — tried to screw me over or otherwise held up the claim for months. 

That is why so many intelligent people promote the nonetheless-still-quite-insane idea of a single-payer health care system for the United States.  Let’s keep in mind the words of Arnold Kling on Medicare:

There is no actual evidence that the elderly receive better care, or more cost-effective care, or more egalitarian care than people under 65. Particularly interesting is the data that the U.S. spends about 40 percent more per capita on health care for the elderly, just as we spend about 40 percent more per capita on health care for those under 65. Where in the data is the much-vaunted efficiency of Medicare?

Let’s also not forget that the best European systems reject the single-payer idea.  Furthermore, while I am frustrated at Allstate, government either does the same or costs and abuse go crazy.  Read Jane Galt as well.

Markets in everything — musical equity

A London-based pop singer is raising funds to kick-start his career by selling shares in himself on internet auction site eBay. In just three days, Shayan has raised £9,000 from buyers in London, New York and Toronto.

Shayan – who doesn’t trade under his surname, Italia – insists the scheme is a way of avoiding the traditional route of sending demos to major labels. "The most difficult thing is to get people’s attention," he says.

Speculative buyers are offered the chance to invest £3,000 in return for a 0.25% equity share in anything the 27-year-old singer-songwriter earns over his entire career. The shares remain valid for 70 years after the artist’s death, and can be transferred to the buyer’s children.

Read more here.

Deterrence

I am in Michigan today speaking to a large group of judges on criminal
deterrence.  It should be a fun talk, judges are good listeners (or at
least they are good at pretending to listen) but I did have a dream
last night in which hundreds of judges were banging their gavels
shouting at me "guilty, guilty, guilty."  Damn conscience.

Coinidentally, some of my work on crime was featured in the latest Economic Scene
column in the NYTimes (thanks Virginia!).  Here is my powerpoint presentation for the judges which surveys some of the new literature on
crime and deterrence (the notes page in the powerpoint provides some
references and calculations).

Are market-clearing prices so bad?

The state House of Representatives gave preliminary approval yesterday to a bill intended to crack down on private parking lot operators around Fenway Park who illegally charge exorbitant fees on big game days.

Mayor Thomas M. Menino sought the legislation, which would raise the fine for price-gouging from $300 to $1,000, after hearing that some lot operators were charging fans as much as $100 to park on opening day.

”The prices are so high, it’s hard for the average person to afford them," said Thomas J. Tinlin, the city’s acting transportation commissioner. ”If these open-air lot parking providers don’t want to do right by the people visiting the city and violate the terms of their license, we need to make them pay for that, and obviously $300 wasn’t getting it done."

Here is the story, courtesy of Michael Costello.  And here is a bit from the rock star who runs our development policy:

Scores of free tickets for the 2 July concert in London – won through a text contest – had been put up for sale [on ebay].

Live 8 organiser Bob Geldof branded the attempted sale of the tickets as "sick profiteering" and welcomed the move.

He said people had realised that "the weakest people on our planet" were being exploited and they were "sickened by that".

The minister for music, James Purnell, said he "wholeheartedly shared" Geldof’s annoyance and had asked the site to halt the sales.

Thanks to David Nishimura for that story; see also Lynne Kiesling.

India has a long, long, way to go

…most of the country is still denied access to free markets and all the advantages they bring. India opened its markets in 1991 not because there was a political will to open the economy, but because of a balance-of-payments crisis that left it with few options. The liberalization was half-hearted and limited to a few sectors, and nowhere near as broad as it needed to be.

One would have expected India’s growth to be driven by labor-intensive manufacturing but, almost by default, it instead came in the poorly licensed area of services exports. The manufacturing sector, ideally placed in terms of labor and raw material to compete with China, never took off. India’s restrictive labor laws, a remnant of the socialist infrastructure that India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, put in place in the 1950s and 1960s, were politically impossible to reform. It remains excruciatingly difficult for most Indians to start a business or set up shop in India’s cities.

This is painstakingly illustrated in “Law, Liberty and Livelihood”, a new book edited by Parth Shah and Naveen Mandava of the Center for Civil Society in New Delhi, which documents the obstacles in the way of any Indian who wishes to start a business in one of India’s big cities. Messrs. Shah and Mandava write: “Entrepreneurs can expect to go through 11 steps to launch a business over 89 days on average, at a cost equal to 49.5% of gross national income per capita.” Contrast the figure of 89 days with two days for Australia, eight for Singapore and 24 for neighboring Pakistan.

That is from The Asian Wall Street Journal, read more here.  Do not forget that "outsourcing jobs" are about one percent of the Indian labor force.  Most of the country is agriculture, and while the Green Revolution fed millions, agricultural productivity has made few other strides into the modern age.

What are the gains to illegal immigration?

Not the gains the U.S., I wish to know how much the migrants are better off.

Typically a rural Mexican goes from earning two dollars a day to ten dollars an hour.  Over a year’s time this could amount to a difference of about $25,000.  Multiplied by many millions of immigrants, this is a considerable sum.

But other economic arguments point to lower numbers.  First, it costs about $1500 to cross the border illegally. (N.B.: That’s not $1500 a year, that is $1500 for the entire crossing, which may keep you in the U.S. for years.)  After all, life in Mexico is more fun and keeps you closer to your family.  The illegal migrants I have known have mixed feelings about life in the U.S. and many have returned to Mexico. 

So is that the value of a marginal crossing?

The $1500 figure does not measure the option value of crossing.  You might not pay $1500 to cross now, but the ability to cross in general is worth more.  But even an option value of 10x use value only gets us up to $15,000.

Consider another argument.  Transactions costs aside, in equilibrium the average returns to being a rural Mexican in Mexico should equal the average returns to being a rural Mexican illegally in Texas.  If not, migration will bring about equalization.  Those average returns cannot differ by more than $1500 per person, no? 

A further question is where — rural Mexico or El Paso — you find greater economic congestion.  To me the answer is not obvious, but this could lower the social value of illegal Mexicans in Texas.  If another Mexican crosses, the greatest costs are imposed on the Mexicans already present in the U.S..

Could it be that the greatest gains are reaped by those back home who get the remittances?   

How about infra-marginal values?  Some pay $1500 to cross but value the experience at much more.  Still, if we are considering marginal shifts in border policy, the $1500 figure still seems relevant.

Might credit constraints matter?  The difference between willingness to pay and willingness to be paid?

How about the next generation?  Perhaps we should use a very low social discount rate to evaluate these future benefits.  If you will be born in El Paso in 2019, you are not, in the meantime, sitting around feeling costs of impatience.  And since you will not have grown accustomed to life in Mexico, you are much better off in the United States.

I conclude that we do not have a very good handle on this question.

Yes Virginia, I do believe in the Commerce Clause

Fafnir does constitutional law.

"Insolent pot!" says Giblets. "Be more vendible!"
"Giblets why are you yellin at that pot plant?" says me.
"Giblets
is trying to turn it into commerce," says Giblets. "But buying and
selling it is too much work. He wants it to be commerce NOOOOOWWW!"

"Silly
Giblets, everything is commerce!" says me. "Let’s step into this
maaaagical schoolbus and we will learn all about Our World Of Commerce!"…

This snowman is not commerce. But we can make him commerce with this ol top hat we found… and if we just believe!
Now all the children of the world clap your hands an say together now:
"I do believe in an expanded Commerce Clause, I do believe in an
expanded Commerce Clause!"

Hooray, now our snowman is
commercial an alive an singin an dancin around! "Happy birthday!" says
the snowman. He is quickly arrested and detained. Commercial snowmen
are strictly controlled by the Department of Snowman Security.