Are sports winners more violent than sports losers?

The [research] team focused on the 106 international rugby or soccer matches between 1995 and 2002. On non-match days, the number of assault victims averaged 21 per day, and on match days when Wales lost this rose to 25. But the situation was worse after a win, with 33 admissions per day on average…

Match days would seem to organize groups of rowdies, if nothing else; winning might embolden their violence.  And don’t forget about alcohol.  Read more here.  Here is a related account.

Addendum: Thomas Edwards points to this explanation.

When does fiscal policy work?

Brad DeLong notes:

When can deficit spending in a recession help?

  1. When it is part of a stable and sustainable structure of economic policy, so that nobody fears that it is the beginning of a process of rampant inflation or expropriation. In that case deficit spending will have no deleterious effects on investment, and to the extent that it gets more money into the hands of those who are temporarily short of cash it will boost demand and employment.
  2. When things are already so bad (as in 1933 and 1934) that there is no investment anyway: if business confidence is already at its nadir, deficit spending cannot do any harm by reducing investment, and does good by putting people to work and boosting their incomes and their demand.

I’ll add further conditions, none of them absolute.  First, it should be accompanied by an expansionary yet stabilizing monetary policy (similar to Brad’s first condition).  Second, the money should be well spent, ideally on durable infrastructure.  Third, fiscal policy should be a signal of a government’s competence or seriousness about fighting the recession.  Fourth, I doubt it does much good if the core problem is bankrupt or otherwise malfunctioning financial institutions.

Mostly I am a skeptic about fiscal policy, if only because discretionary fiscal changes tend to be small relative to modern wealthy economies. 

Should you stockpile Tamiflu?

Tamiflu is effective against at least some strains of avian flu.  But if a pandemic comes, can you expect to get your tamiflu?  Why not buy some now and put it in the refrigerator?

Deborah Franklin (NYT, $) says you should not stockpile.  She claims you will have to pay too much, you might store the drug incorrectly, and you may exacerbate drug resistance. 

We can dismiss the first argument out of hand, as those costs ($65-$100 for a five day course) are internalized by the purchaser.

As for the second argument, will a centralized stockpile involve less wastage?  Just pick the correct temperature for storing the pills.  I’ll predict that bureaucracy and distribution and rent-seeking costs will be high if there is panic demand for Tamiflu.  If you’re smart enough to read MR, you’re smart enough to have lower storage and distribution costs than our government.  Which other assets — other than military hardware — do you prefer they hold for you? 

Resistance is a real issue, especially if you stop taking the drug too soon.  But I suspect fanatical early stockpilers are the people least likely to make this mistake.

A further question is whether you are most deserving to have some Tamiflu, in case a pandemic comes.  Maybe it should all go to the vulnerable elderly.  (What if the hoarders are the vulnerable elderly?)  On the other hand, early stockpilers tend to be relatively rich in human capital.  And your stockpiling behavior, in the meantime, bids up the price, runs down stocks, and encourages more production. 

Howard Markel, a medical historian at U. Michigan, offered a revealing comment for the NYT article:

"Historically, whenever there’s a crisis you’ll find stockpiling, hoarding, black marketeering and generally bad [sic] behavior"

No, I am not buying.  But as you can see, I am thinking about it. 

Claims my Russian wife laughs at (a continuing series)

Start with the idea that the United States can no longer really be regarded as a "new nation."  There is no doubt that America is singularly lacking in ancient chateaux and schlossen…But this scarcely constitutes evidence of youth.  The first settlers arrived when James I was on the throne and England was not yet Britain.  Galileo was offered a chair at Harvard University, which was founded in 1636, before Charles I had his head cut off.  The Declaration of Independence was signed a century before the unification of both German and Italy…Many of the traditions which define Britain as an old country in the minds of admiring Americans — the pomp and circumstance of empire, the rituals of Charles Dickens’s Christmas, Sherlock Holmes’s deer-stalker hat – were invented a century after the American constitution.  "The youth of America is their oldest tradition," Oscar Wilde quipped more than a century ago.

At least I think it is true.  That is from The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America, by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge.  This book is the best introduction to the history of the so-called "American Right."  It is a worthy successor to George Nash’s earlier tome.

Seth Roberts is Utterly Mad (but in a good way)

Seth Roberts is a psychologist at Berkeley who for the past twelve years has obsessively kept data on himself in an effort to generate and test new ideas.  In a recent paper in Behavioral and Brain Sciences he explains some of his methods and findings (a number of comments, most of which I think are blah, blah, blah are also included).

Roberts, for example, drank 5 liters (!) of water every day for 4 months to test a theory of weight loss (he lost weight but he couldn’t keep up the drinking!).  He also began standing for more than 8 hours a day, initially to test the affect on weight loss but instead he found that standing, especially 10 hours or more a day, dramatically improved his sleep.  Eventually, he did find a novel form of weight loss involving fructose water (read the paper).  Some of his findings seem bizarre, such as watching faces on tv in the morning improved his mood the next day but lowered it that night. 

It’s tempting to dismiss all of this (especially before reading the paper and looking at the care with which Roberts kept his data) and clearly, I wouldn’t take any experiment with 1 subject as definitive.  Roberts, however, is making the case that careful measurement of self-response is a way of generating new ideas.  Roberts, for example, did not set out to test the idea that viewing faces improved mood this was a surprising discovery. 

A virtue of self-experimentation is that it doesn’t take a million dollar lab and a bevy of graduate students, with some willpower and a willingness to carefully document and measure results, anyone can do cutting-edge science.   

Economists and the FDA

Bottom line: The public thinks the FDA is great. Regular economists think it’s pretty good. And economists who specialize in the FDA think it’s pretty bad.

That is Bryan Caplan, read more here.

Addendum: I’ll grant that those who specialize in studying a particular agency may tend to be the critics.  That being said, the "man in the street" simply has not, in most cases, considered the economic criticisms of the FDA.

At this point, we all face a dilemma.  For instance Paul Krugman cites the predominance of academic Democrats as an argument against the Republican party.  Must he then accept this evidence on the FDA?  Must Caplan become a Democrat?  When is citing professional consensus opinion most persuasive?  What is the professional consensus on this question?

Experimental economics, African style

This settlement in western Kenya, where Ms. Odera lives, has become
a giant test tube, and Ms. Okoth’s instruction is one part of that
experiment. Eventually there will be 10 such test villages, scattered
across the world’s poorest continent.

Led by Jeffrey Sachs,
director of the Earth Institute of Columbia University, the project
aims to fight poverty in all its aspects – from health and education to
agriculture and energy in one focused area – to prove that conditions
for millions of people like Ms. Odera and her neighbors can be improved
in just five years.

It is an important and uncertain gambit. If
it fails, initiatives like that pushed recently by Prime Minister Tony
Blair of Britain to greatly increase foreign aid to Africa may seem
foolhardy. If a single village cannot be turned around with focused
attention, how can whole communities and even countries be revitalized?

…The researchers behind the program are keeping track of every penny
they spend, trying to demonstrate that for a modest amount, somewhere
around $110 per person, a village can be tugged out of poverty.

They
have tried to measure exactly how bad Sauri was at the start of the
project last fall. Every home was surveyed to get an accurate portrait
of the population. Blood tests were taken among a smaller group for a
nutritional analysis, because many villagers eat only once a day, and
show it.

Blood will also be tested to determine how widespread
the malaria parasite is, and then again later, to see whether the
mosquito bed nets given to every villager help keep more people,
especially children, alive.

Here is the New York Times story.  Here is my earlier post on Sachs’s plan.  Here is an on-line World Bank discussion about when foreign aid works and doesn’t; they invite MR readers to join in.

My social security debate with Jim Glassman

The most loyal of MR readers will find this old hat, but the debate at this link, originally done for Reason magazine, provides a good summary of my views. Here is my bottom line:

To the benefit caps that we really agree on, Glassman wants to add government-regulated personal accounts. The economics here are straightforward, once unbundled from benefit caps. Our government would raise taxes (or borrow) to finance further private investment in equity markets. Furthermore those investments are to be regulated by the government. I expect that Reason readers, once they hear the plan described in these terms, will be suspicious.

How does sleep compare with death?

Say that you, like me, expect to live another forty years.

Now imagine that I could learn to live with one less hour sleep each night.  The extra time adds up to almost two more years of life.  And by definition, two more years of awake life.  Which is worth about three years of life with one-third sleep.

I would give a great deal to live three more years, but I don’t try so hard to sleep less.

Nor do I enjoy sleep.  I enjoy "the feeling of having slept."  The best sleep is the sleep I don’t notice at all, and I would do without sleep if I could.  It appears that I find death much worse than sleep.

Might I have negative time preference for time (a non-storable) itself?  I would rather have an extra year in the distant future than many extra hours — adding up to a year — in the interim.

Much of my negative time preference for time stems from plain curiosity.  If I were single at the time, I would give up my last year of life for a year in 2250, if only to see how things turn out (I also would have a chance of trying some neat new goods, but for me that is a lesser attraction). 

I would rather be born later than earlier.  Even if I did not expect economic growth, I could learn more history.  So how much life would I give up for a true and comprehensive account of the future of the human race?  How much money?

Say that "deep-freeze" worked and the future were secure.  How many people would deposit a penny in the bank and wake up much later as billionaires?  Would you have an extra child — one more than you want — in order to freeze her and pre-arrange future care in this manner?  Is there a free-rider problem, and if so what must we do to keep people going in the present, thereby maintaining real rates of return for future "sleep astronauts"?

Addendum: Here is Shakespeare’s take, thanks to Robert Schwartz for the pointer.

China fact of the day

"There are maybe 9, 10 million young pianists in China now," says international piano phenom Lang Lang. There, young classical artists like himself are treated like rock stars.
    "It is different from the U.S.," he explains. "Everyone goes to [classical] concerts and CD signings. They have to have police to hold back the crowds, and to have this life is the dream of many young Chinese people."

Here is the story.  From those in the know, I have heard horror stories of badly tuned and badly maintained pianos rotting in humid climates.  Still, I cannot help but feel that the future of contemporary classical music composition lies in Asia.  Where else are so many young people passionate about the genre?

Electing a Pope

After the Athenians, Catholic scholars were among the first to analyze problems of voting (what is today called social choice theory).  The potential for chaotic elections was certainly familar to the Cardinals who after many disputes over who should be Pope settled on the current two-thirds rule for election in 1179.  And while I wouldn’t go so far as  Pope Pius II  who in 1458 said (after his own election (of course!) "What is done by two thirds of the sacred college, that is surely of the Holy Ghost, which may not be resisted," it is interesting to note that 2/3rds does have a number of special stability properties (see the difficult paper of Saari here and the earlier link).

For more on the history and practice of Papal elections you can listen to two free historical lectures from The Teaching Company.