Who was the Mona Lisa?

Seventeen years of research, beginning in Germany, have led the Adelaide historian Maike Vogt- Luerssen to believe that the Mona Lisa is the lovesick former Duchess of Milan, Isabella of Aragon, and not the wife of a Florentine silk merchant, as has been believed.

And why is she so sad?

She married at the end of 1488 when she came to Milan but she had a big problem. She married her cousin, a beautiful man but he was a drinker, and he had problems with impotence.”

The Isabella alternative has long been known to art historians, now the evidence in its favor has gone up. Here is the full story, which includes a discussion of the evidence. Here is a recent article which offers a scientific explanation of the mystery of Mona Lisa’s smile.

Haitian art exhibit

One of the largest and best-ever exhibits of Haitian art will be opening this week at the Organization of American States, 17th and Constitution Ave., Washington D.C. The showing is part of a more general celebration of the Haitian Bicentennial. I am pleased to announce I will have eight pieces in the show. In addition to the voodoo flags, and a number of paintings, look for the bearded plastic doll on the horse, trampling two bound babies, and wrapped in sequins and jewels (not a joke!). Opening night is Monday, 6 p.m. (invitations required), after that the exhibit is open regular business hours, but not weekends. The show closes July 9th, make it if you can!

Returns again

Many thanks for all the good suggestions regarding the return puzzle. Here are just a few of the many ideas that I received. My apologies to those not mentioned by name.

Mark Garbowski stated one thesis very nicely:

Demand forced the Sears catalogue to offer easy returns because people were buying things they could not see or touch. Back in 1895, I suspect this was a pretty unusual experience. If you go to a small local shop and know the owner, you probably have a good opportunity to inspect the merchandise before purchase, but this was not possible with mail order. Generalizing, I would opine that the combination of a significant rural population spread over a vast geographic landmass, together with improved communication and transportation, allowed those rural people the ability to purchase (at least occasionally) high quality, exotic (meaning from far away) goods to a degree that was never before possible, and never duplicated in Europe. Before a consumer would send a check or hard cash in advance of receiving an item he or she had never seen or touched, it became necessary to develop a good return policy as insurance.

I suspect that the economies of scale you discuss allow the insurance to be economical, but did not drive its creation. I believe it is a demand side creation, but based on historical circumstances, and not current class or income circumstances. Once the demand side forced mail order retailers to offer it, consumers discovered how much they liked it and forced other retailers to follow suit, even though it was not as necessary.

Ian MacCleod and others mentioned that retail trade in Europe is organized more often on the boutique model than on mass retailing. Salespeople don’t turnover as often as in the U.S., they spend more time with the customer and they personally represent the product to a greater extent. As a result, returning a product can be seen as an affront.

Adam Shostack writes that the credit card companies often reward firms that offer easy return policies because it is less costly than handling a billing dispute. Credit card usage is much lower in Europe thus supporting the theory.

Tim Worstall points out that there are legal restrictions in much of Europe on things like “as is” sales. Similarly, there is a large wholesale market for “as is” items in the US but not in Europe. Both of these factors make offering easy returns more costly. Of course, these differences may be as much “caused by” as “causes of” differences in the return policy but its useful to remember that there is a whole web of practices involved with easy returns.

The Anti-Capitalist Mentality

Short parts of this Mises classic have been put on-line, courtesy of the Mises Blog.

This has long been my favorite Mises book, and my favorite Mises title, here is one juicy passage:

There has never been an era in which the many were pre­pared to do justice to contemporary art. Reverence to the great authors and artists has always been limited to small groups. What characterizes capitalism is not the bad taste of the crowds, but the fact that these crowds, made prosper­ous by capitalism, became “consumers” of literature–of course, of trashy litera­ture. The book market is flooded by a downpour of trivial fic­tion for the semibarbarians. But this does not prevent great au­thors from creating imperishable works.

And how is this for polemic?:

John Ruskin will be remembered–together with Carlyle, the Webbs, Bernard Shaw and some others–as one of the gravedig­gers of British freedom, civilization and prosperity. A wretched character in his private no less than in his public life, he glorified war and bloodshed and fanatically slan­dered the teachings of political economy which he did not understand. He was a big­oted detractor of the market econ­omy and a romantic eulogist of the guilds. He paid homage to the arts of earlier centuries. But when he faced the work of a great living artist, Whistler, he dis­praised it in such foul and objurgatory language that he was sued for libel and found guilty by the jury. It was the writings of Ruskin that popularized the prejudice that capitalism, apart from being a bad economic system, has substituted ugliness for beauty, pettiness for grandeur, trash for art.

When was the last time you heard the word “objurgatory” used so effectively?

Mises was no paleo-conservative, rather he embodied the radical streak in classical liberalism at its best.

How ancient is your state?

When, pray tell, does nation building succeed? Bockstette, Chanda, and Putterman suggest an answer:

A longer history of statehood might prove favorable to economic development…for several reasons. There may be learning by doing in the way of public administration…The operation of a state may support the development of attitudes consistent with bureaucratic discipline and hierarchical control…

The authors provide a measure of the antiquity of a state; under their measure China comes in first place and Zambia comes in last. It turns out that state antiquity matters in cross-sectional growth equations:

…suppose that Mauritania, the country which recorded the second lowest value for [state antiquity] instead had the [state antiquity value] for China…Based on the estimated coefficient…this would mean that Mauritania would have recorded an annual increase of 1.9 percent in its growth rate. Given that Mauritania’s average growth rate during the 35-year period was nearly zero and China’s was 3.8 percent, differences in [state antiquity] can, by these calculations, explain half the difference in growth rates between the two countries.

I do have some caveats. Who ever knows what causes what in these macro equations? Furthermore state antiquity explains growth rates but not income levels. This would suggest that state antiquity matters more today than ever before, a possible but puzzling relationship. That being said, state antiquity does partially explain a “social infrastructure” variable, which in turn helps explain income levels.

If it were up to me: I would rather see economists address the important questions with imperfect tools, rather than focus on problems where their methods are immune to internal criticism.

By the way, I can’t find Iraq on their (hard to read) scatterplots, but I understand the modern version of the nation as starting only under British imperialism.

Why so many happy returns?

It’s much easier to return a purchase in the United States than in Europe. An old joke has it that Germans are very nice people until you try to buy something from them. Imagine then how difficult it is to return something in Germany. The no questions asked, easy return is not common in most of Europe.

It’s puzzling why this should be so. One explanation offered at lunch yesterday when I raised this question focused on the demand side. Incomes are lower in Europe, perhaps people of lower income don’t demand easy return policies. The theory here is a little odd – an easy return policy is a form of insurance and the poor should demand more insurance not less – but we do observe the poor buying less insurance in other areas so it’s not ruled out completely. The differences in return policy, however, are striking while the differences in income are modest. It’s not like we observe large differences in return policy across the U.S. states, for example, and Germany is among the richer countries in Europe. Return policy has also been relatively good in the United States for a very long time – going back at least to the 1895 Sears Roebuck catalog.

From the supply side the question becomes why is it cheaper for U.S. firms to offer easy returns than it is for European firms? I think part of the answer is suggested by that Sears-Roebuck guarantee. Retailers in the United States tend to be larger than in Europe and because of this they can take advantages of economies of scale both in insurance and in establishing a reputation for quality. European retailers are smaller and have greater monopoly power (even though there are more of them they have local monopoly power that the big boxes in the United States do not.)

If the supply theory is correct then multi-national firms that offer easy return policies in the United States ought to offer similar policies in Europe – the demand theory, in contrast, says that return policy should differ by country according to income. I bet, however, that Ikea offers easy returns in Sweden just as in the United States.

Email me if you have other ideas, experiences or evidence on this question. The return puzzle may seem minor but it has widespread implications. Return policy is not chosen alone but in conjunction with product quality. Easy return policy increases the incentive to produce high-quality products that consumers will not want to return and high-quality products reduces the cost of offering an easy return policy.

John Kerry’s hi-tech plan

Here is one summary of his latest proposals, the bracketed text is my comments:

Sen. John Kerry called Thursday for increased investment and support for America’s high-tech industry. His proposals include:

— Encouraging technological innovation by cutting some capital gains taxes and revising or eliminating regulations that affect competitiveness. [Good news]

— Using tax incentives to expand universal broadband access, which he believes will add $500 billion and 1.2 million new jobs to the economy. [ I don’t see the social benefit here, the private benefits of broadband are largely internalized; it sounds like this is based on a bad economic impact study.]

— Increasing government research funding in science and technology, including money for “pure” science research. [Government subsidies for science should be oriented toward the “pure” side of the spectrum. We need to lengthen our time horizon here, and let’s focus on infectious diseases and non-polluting energy sources. I am much more skeptical about the government’s ability to guide applied technology. Remember Synfuels? But if we are going to do this, we must make real spending cuts elsewhere, most of all in Medicare]

— Improving math and science education at the K-12 level and rewarding colleges for increasing the number of science and engineering degrees they award. [Sounds good, but I don’t expect federal involvement to bring a real improvement. Nor do I think the a marginal increase in science degrees will mean more scientific progress. How good is the marginal science student, and how much does he or she love science?]

The plan also involves spectrum auctions [good] and stem cell research [good].

The bottom line: This is better than I had expected. I do worry that only the worst and porkiest elements will survive the political process.

Missing markets: wireless assistance

The Scandinavian countries all have wireless directory assistance, but the U.S. does not, largely because of privacy concerns and fear of telemarketers. Here is a summary of recent debates.

This week’s Fortune magazine (June 28, p.47) writes:

…directory assistance could be much more than just a repository for phone numbers. She argues that the phone companies, with some new software and employee training, could begin offering new services, such as a system that allows an operator to forward, for a fee, a text message to the unlisted customer you’re trying to reach. And why stop at wireless numbers? Directory assistance could list e-mail addresses, work numbers, website addresses — or any other info-nugget a customer might desire.

What I want: Large numbers of well-educated Indians, standing by a phone in Bangalore, who can use Google for me and answer my queries when I am on the road. Some of these Indians would be conversant with macroeconomic time series data, others would be experts in the use of MapQuest.com.

What will happen with Medicare?

Daniel Shaviro writes:

While the future is inevitably opaque, here is a forecast. The next few years may see the adoption of policies that widen the fiscal gap, including the enactment of unfunded prescription drug benefits that keep getting larger through a political bidding process [good call here!]. By 2010-20, however, the entitlement programs’ fiscal prospects will look grave enough to prompt significant tax increases that are now unthinkable. These will include the enactment of a VAT that is officially earmarked to one or both of the entitlements, because the lure of a dedicated money machine will have grown too great to pass up.

Medigap will be addressed at some point, because cross-subsidization is so hard to defend, but the impact of the change will be unduly deferred. Copayments will increase and the Medicare eligibility age be postponed, though again with a deferred effective date. Explicit means-testing within Medicare is unlikely…And Medicare will continue to misdirect its insurance coverage toward the low end as opposed to the high end…

Inflation will be used to narrow the fiscal gap…these might include eliminating or reducing the indexing of income tax rate brackets and Social Security benefits. Medicare will benefit fiscally from inflation because it permits payments to providers to decline in real terms without declining nominally. Indeed, doctors will drop out of Medicare in increasing numbers as its payment fees shrink relative to those that patients with the cash are willing to pay…

We are then told that we will see health care rationing, lower investments in health care human capital and technology, and growing disparity between rich and poor in terms of health care access.

For a useful comparison, here is Shaviro on what should happen.

The bottom line: The fiscal burdens of Medicare are, by far, the biggest economic problem in today’s America. David Cutler (p.77 of the book) estimates that restoring long-term fiscal balance to the program would require immediate benefit cuts of 38 to 61 percent. That’s not going to happen.

What should we do with Medicare?

Daniel Shaviro offers the following suggestions:

1. Reduce Medicare’s low-end coverage of routine expenditures, and use replace deductibles with lesser copayments that extend over a broader range.

2. Provide prescription drug and catastrophic care coverage without increasing the overall value (net of premiums and copayments) of Medicare [Ha!, interjects TC, this must have been written before the Bush bill passed]

3. Impose a tax on Medigap coverage of Medicare copayments, or else bar such coverage altogether.

4. Make copayments income-related…[“means-tested”]

5. To the extent that income tax increases are needed, use base-broadening in lieu of rate increases to the extent possible.

6. Enact a consumption-style VAT without transition relief for old wealth.

7. Use accounting rules to discourage Congress from dissipating the net revenue from tax increases that are meant to help meet future Medicare liabilities.

8. Attempt to realize cost savings by modifying Medicare’s current fee for service structure. While managed care has had disappointing results as applied to workers under age sixty-five, this may reflect the political and legal obstacles to imposing rationing.

My take: This is a serious effort to solve a real problem. I’ll endorse 1-4 and 7. When it comes to higher taxes, let’s just hope that productivity growth remains high. If I have to, I’ll get out and push. #8 sounds too much like putting old people out on ice floes, but it would solve at least twenty percent of the problem with only minimal impact on life expectancy. And for the proposal to be effective, how voluntary would managed care be? For those reasons, I can’t press the “do it” button on #8; I’ll give it a pass and plead political infeasibility. And while I am fully aware that Medicare is the fiscal train wreck, compared to which most other economic problems pale, shouldn’t the words “cut spending” somehow play a role?

Here is my previous post on Shaviro’s illuminating book. Today was Shaviro on “what should happen.” Stay tuned for Shaviro on “what will happen.”

Who are Britain’s most influential public intellectuals?

Here is one list, from Prospect magazine. Here is some discussion. Economists include John Kay, Samuel Brittan, Martin Wolf, Adair Turner, Robert Skidelsky, Amartya Sen, and Richard Layard. You have a chance to vote for the top five of the one hundred. Here is a Richard Posner list of public intellectuals, not restricted to the UK. Here is a related review of Posner.