Results for “Jesse Shapiro” 19 found
Does TV harm your kids?
Here is new evidence that the answer is no, thanks to wunderkind Jesse Shapiro, channeled by Austan Goolsbee.
Underappreciated economists, a continuing series
Jesse Shapiro. Yes, he is a mere Youngling, having just finished his Ph.d. at Harvard (he was a Shleifer student, and now visiting at Chicago). But he is likely to be one of the leading economists of the next generation. He studies why and how large numbers of people can make, or appear to make, systematic errors. This is perhaps the frontier question in contemporary economics. Here is the abstract from Jesse’s paper on advertising:
I present a model of advertising in the presence of bounded memory and limited recall. In the model, consumers’ memories record the quality of their experiences with a product. Exposure to advertising leads to memories of good experiences. Crucially, I assume that consumers cannot recall whether a memory orginates from a genuine consumption experience or from exposure to advertising. The model yields several novel implications. First, advertisers will concentrate their efforts on past customers, because experienced consumers will be more likely to trust that their positive feelings toward the brand are genuine. The model may therefore help to explain why established, familiar brands continue to advertise extensively. Second, the firm’s desire to "saturate" the consumer with positive memories can lead to the commonly observed phenomenon of "pulsing," in which a firm oscillates between no advertising and some positive amount. Third, exaggeration is limited, in the sense that advertisers may not cause consumers to remember haivng extraordinary experiences with the brand. Indeed, under some conditions an equilibrium in which advertising conveys the best possible impression of the brand can exist only when the total amount of advertising is small.
Another paper of Jesse’s challenges analytical egalitarianism — the entire foundation of economics. Here is a previous installment of underappreciated economists.
Tuesday assorted links
Islamic State as hypermodern, momentum traders
Following up on my earlier post on Syria, Alexander Burns sends me this very interesting email:
Dear Professor Cowen,
Thanks for your reply tweet regarding your Marginal Revolution post on modelling Syria / Islamic State. I enjoy your books and blog.
I’m writing a thesis at Australia’s Monash University that synthesises Jack Snyder’s work on strategic culture / strategic subcultures with Martha Crenshaw and Jacob Shapiro’s work on terrorist organisations. Two recent presentations:
1. Mid-Candidature Review Panel slides: http://www.alexburns.net/Files/MCR.pptx
2. Monash SPS Symposium Presentation on Islamic State: https://t.co/Ju11zvFBSP
Several weeks ago I discussed Islamic State with my Mid-Candidature Review panel whilst also reading Gary Antonacci’s Dual Momentum Investing and the Dan Zanger interview in Mark Minervini’s Momentum Masters interviews book. It struck me that Islamic State were like momentum traders for several reasons:
(1) Islamic State have grown rapidly in foreign mujahideen; control of parts of northern Iraq and Syria; and have grown in power projection capabilities. This dynamic is very much like successful momentum traders have worked in a financial markets context using Jesse Livermore’s trend-following approach, William O’Neil’s CANSLIM system, or Paul Tudor Jones II’s speculative activity in Eurodollar and foreign exchange markets.
(2) Islamic State have to-date survived aerial bombardments and have exploited a range of weaknesses in their enemies (e.g. jihadist beheading videos as psychological warfare against the Iraqi Army; Turkey’s borders with Iraq and Syria; and alliance manoeuvers around the Assad regime and the Syrian civil war).
(3) Events like the capture of Mosul, Iraq; combat experience in the Syrian civil war; involvement in oil black markets; and the proclamation on 29th June 2014 of a worldwide caliphate have momentum-like qualities, particularly in terms of creating the psychological climate for nation-building.
(4) Islamic State has outperformed their peer jihadist groups in their growth and ideological impact.
(5) Islamic State’s use of social media to amplify ideological propaganda is more hypermodern and sophisticated than other terrorist groups.
(6) Their rapid growth has led to spillover effects such as the refugee crisis in Europe.
(7) The Western media’s concerns about Islamic State — and their cultural impact — feel like the 1998-2000 part of the 1995-2000 dotcom speculative bubble, albeit in a counterterrorism context.
(8) Your perspective on Islamic State as hypermodern may also be relevant to the proto-Marxist work on accelerationism and postcapitalism (Nick Srnicek and Alex Williams’ Inventing the Future; Steven Shaviro’s No Speed Limit; and Benjamin Noys’ Malign Velocities): contemporary terrorist groups operate in a different political / technological / ‘average is over’ context.
With his permission I reproduced the email as is, though added in a few extra paragraph breaks for ease of reading.