Results for “corporate tax”
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Martin Feldstein on capital taxation

Follow these numbers, and the bold face is mine:

An example will illustrate the harmful effect of high
taxes on the income from savings and show how the tax reform could make
taxpayers unambiguously better off. Think about someone — call him Joe
— who earns an additional $1,000. If Joe’s marginal tax rate is 35%,
he gets to keep $650. Joe saves $100 of this for his retirement and
spends the rest. If Joe invests these savings in corporate bonds, he
receives a return of 6% before tax and 3.9% after tax. With inflation
of 2%, the 3.9% after-tax return is reduced to a real after-tax return
of only 1.9%. If Joe is now 40 years old, this 1.9% real rate of return
implies that the $100 of savings will be worth $193 in today’s prices
when Joe is 75. So Joe’s reward for the extra work is $550 of extra
consumption now and $193 of extra consumption at age 75.

But if the tax rate on the income from saving is
reduced to 15% as the tax panel recommends, the 6% interest rate would
yield 5.1% after tax and 3.1% after both tax and inflation. And with a
3.1% real return, Joe’s $100 of extra saving would grow to $291 in
today’s prices instead of just $193.

There are two lessons in this example, each of which
identifies a tax distortion that wastes potential output and therefore
unnecessarily lowers levels of real well-being. The first is that a tax
on interest income is effectively also a tax on the reward for extra
work
, cutting the additional consumption at age 75 from $291 to just
$193. Because the high tax rate on interest income reduces the reward
for work (as well as the reward for saving), Joe makes choices that
lower his pretax earnings — fewer hours of work, less work effort,
less investment in skills, etc.

The second lesson that follows from the example is
that the tax on interest income substantially distorts the level of
future consumption even if Joe does not make any change in the amount
that he saves
. With the same $100 of additional saving, the higher tax
rate reduces his additional retirement consumption from $291 to $193, a
one-third reduction. If Joe responds to the lower real rate of return
that results from the higher tax rate on interest by saving less, the
distortion of consumption is even greater. For example, if Joe would
save $150 out of the extra $1,000 of earnings when his real net return
is 3.1% (instead of saving $100 when the real net return is 1.9%), his
extra consumption at age 75 would be $436, more than twice as much as
with the 35% tax rate. But the key point is that Joe’s future
consumption would be substantially reduced by the higher tax rate even
if he does not change his savings.

Taken together, these two lessons imply that a lower
tax rate on interest income, combined with a small increase in the tax
on other earnings, could make Joe unambiguously better off while also
increasing government revenue
. More specifically, if reducing the tax
on interest income from 35% to 15% had no effect on Joe’s earnings or
on his initial consumption spending, the government could collect the
same present value of tax revenue from Joe by raising the tax on his
$1,000 of extra earnings from $350 to $385. Although this would cut
Joe’s saving from $100 to $65 (if he keeps his initial consumption
spending unchanged), the higher net return on that saving would give
Joe the same consumption at age 75. In this way, Joe would be neither
better off nor worse off.

But experience shows that Joe would alter his behavior
in response to the lower tax rate. He would earn more at age 40 and
would save more for retirement. This change of behavior makes Joe
better off (or he wouldn’t do it) and the extra earnings and interest
income would raise government revenue above what it would be with a 35%
tax rate. So Joe would be unambiguously better off with the lower tax
rate on interest income and the government would collect more tax
revenue.

Here is the link.  Elsewhere from The Wall Street Journal, here is a piece on bargaining theory, thanks to Chris Masse for the pointer.

Does capital taxation hurt an economy?

Following my Econoblog debate with Max Sawicky, Kevin Drum writes:

Basically, I’m on Max’s side: I think taxation of capital should be at roughly the same level as taxation of labor income. However, I believe this mostly for reasons of social justice, and it would certainly be handy to have some rigorous economic evidence to back up my noneconomic instincts on this matter. Something juicy and simple for winning lunchtime debates with conservative friends would be best. Unfortunately, Max punts, saying only, "As you know, empirical research seldom settles arguments."

Let me repeat the chosen comparison: capital taxes vs. gasoline taxes and no subsidies for housing.  That is a no-brainer.  But still you might be interested in the question of capital taxes vs. labor taxes.  Here are some points:

1. Supply-siders writing on capital taxation often make exaggerated claims.  Even if you like their conclusions, beware. 

2. Taxing dividends, corporate income, returns to savings, and capital gains all involve separate albeit related issues.  I am willing to consider zero for the lot.  Of that list, the corporate income tax is probably the biggest mess.  The capital gains tax is the least harmful.  The tax on dividends is the least well understood (in perfect markets theory, the level of dividends should not matter at all).  By the way, if you are worried about noise traders, a transactions tax is a better way to address this problem than a capital gains tax.

3. The U.S. currently lacks exorbitantly high levels of capital taxation.  Joel Slemrod estimates a rate of about fourteen percent, albeit with many complications and qualifications.  N.B.: We lower the rate of tax on capital by engaging in crazy-quilt and distortionary adjustments.  Nonetheless it is incorrect to argue "we have high rates of capital taxation and are doing fine, better than Europe."  Do not confuse real and nominal tax rates.

Take the capital gains tax.  Once you consider bequests and options on loss offsets, the effective rate of tax is arguably no more than five percent.  But it is still set up in a screwy way.  Bruce Bartlett points me to this short piece on real tax burdens on capital.

4. Peter Lindert has good arguments that favorable capital taxation has helped European economies finance their welfare states.

5. Larry Summers did the best empirical work on how abolishing capital income taxation would boost living standards. 

6. Encouraging savings will have a big payoff.  If you tax capital at zero, in the long run you will have much more of it.  This holds in most plausible views of the world.  Max’s examples aside, the supply curve for savings does not generally slope downwards; nor need you write me about various strange counterexamples from Ramsey models.  Sooner or later, more capital will kick in to mean a much higher standard of living.

7. Bruce Bartlett points me to this excellent CBO study.  It shows how much capital is taxed unevenly; one virtue of a zero rate is to eliminate many of those distortions in a simple way.

8. Remember those arguments about how more money doesn’t make you happier?  And we are all in a rat race where we work too hard to win a negative-sum relative status game?  I’ve never bought into them, but it’s funny how they suddenly stop coming from the left once the topic is capital vs. labor taxation.

9. The same excellent Slemrod paper (and he is no right-wing supply-side exaggerator) also suggests that the revenue lost from a zero rate on capital would be small.  N.B.: The references to this paper are the place to start your reading on this whole topic.

10. Kevin Drum’s belief in social justice should not necessarily lead him to look for arguments for taxing capital.  Even if we accept his normative views, there is the all-important question of incidence.  Taxing capital can hurt labor.  If you are truly keen to tax capital, this is a sign of a high time preference rate, not concern for the poor.

11. Some forms of human capital also should receive favorable tax treatment.  Vouchers for primary education and state universities are two examples.  I am also happy — in part for equity reasons — to subsidize human capital acquisition through an Earned Income Tax Credit.

12. What is really the difference between capital and labor?  Is it simply measured elasticities?  The size of each potential tax base?  The greater "future orientation" of capital and the possibility for compound returns?  All of the above?  How much does your answer depend on whether you view capital as a "fund" or as a "collection of capital goods"?

The bottom line: It all depends on the margin.  If your levels of government spending allow you to keep labor rates of taxation below 40 percent, I don’t see comparable gains from lowering tax rates on labor.  If you have equity concerns, express them through other policy instruments.  But if your marginal tax on labor is 65 percent and your tax rate on capital is 15 percent, cut the tax on labor first.

I know it hurts, but all of you non-right-wingers out there should consider a zero rate of taxation on capital.  Comments are open.

Do state pension funds meddle in corporate affairs?

Over the last 20 years, public pension funds have grown nearly sevenfold – to more than $2 trillion nationwide, outpacing private-sector fund growth by more than one-third and making them tremendously powerful in boardrooms across the country.

Why do they want to meddle? Because they can. Although private-sector fund managers focus on picking lucrative investments – because that’s how they get paid – public fund trustees have different incentives. Sure, they want funds to perform well. But if they don’t, they know that taxpayers will make up the shortfall. So they’re free to pursue political objectives.

Public funds first discovered their political strength in the mid-1980s, when they successfully pressured companies with business in South Africa to lobby against apartheid or to withdraw from that nation. For years, activist pension funds focused on broad-brush issues like apartheid. They didn’t meddle with corporate management.

But the public funds have taken the corporate scandals of the Enron era as a license to step up their interference with corporate boards. "The age of investor complacency must be replaced by a new era of investor democracy," said Phil Angelides, California treasurer and a member of the board of CalPERS, the state’s main pension fund.

Read more here.  Tomorrow I will consider the more general question of whether we should trust our federal government to invest social security funds in private equities.

How long can the European tax cartel last?

While Germany struggles with inflexible labour laws and high taxation, Austria has pushed through tax reforms that will bring rates down close to east European levels, to run alongside already business-friendly employment measures.

The results have been dramatic. Since January this year, when the first phase of Austria’s two-step reforms kicked in with big income tax cuts and some relief for small and medium-size companies, the country has enjoyed a rash of high-profile investment.

Businesses have been enticed not just by the current reforms but by the prospect of corporate rates falling from 34 to 25 per cent, or less than 22 per cent including allowances, from January next year as part of the second stage.

However, Austria’s success has been at Germany’s expense, as companies relocate from the German border region of Bavaria.

Here is the full story.

Iceland also has been defecting from the high-tax cartel:

After years of economic stagnation, unemployment and fiscal disarray, an Icelandic government led by Prime Minister David Oddsson implemented a series of Reaganesque reforms that have turned the economy around. In the 1990s, he reformed the income tax moving it towards a simpler and flatter structure. He also lowered the corporate marginal tax rate from 48 percent to 30 percent. And he also managed to contain spending, got rid of inflation, privatized large public companies and got the government out of the banking industry.

The results were astonishing. Unemployment dropped, the deficit disappeared, as did inflation, and Iceland is now one of the fastest growing countries in Europe–5 percent a year on average for the last 10 years. According to Mr. Oddsson, “This success has been achieved not in spite of extensive tax cuts but, to a great degree, because of them.”

In 2002, the corporate rate was cut again, from 30 percent to 18 percent. Today, Iceland has the third lowest corporate income tax rates of all the OECD countries behind Ireland 12.5 percent and Hungary 16 percent. And according to the Prime Minister, personal income tax will be reduced again this year by four percentage points, the income tax surcharge on the highest incomes will be removed and plans are formed to cut the corporate income tax rate further down to 15 percent.

Here is a previous MR post on the EU as a tax cartel.

Is the EU a tax cartel?

Germany yesterday threw cold water on the festive mood ahead of this week’s European Union enlargement by telling its eastern neighbours that low corporate tax rates used to attract foreign investment were unacceptable.

Speaking only days before 10 new member states join the EU on May 1, most of them from eastern Europe, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder said tax rates, often less than half those in Germany, were “not the way forward” in a united Europe.

Here is the full story. Here is a good article on the European tax cartel.

Germany does have a valid complaint that it sends subsidies to these lower-tax nations. Would any of you care to guess my vision of “the way forward”?

Thursday assorted links

1. A critical history of the AI safety movement.

2. Richard Hanania on class-based affirmative action.

3. James J. Lee comment on the new Greg Clark results.

4. Emily Wilson on different Iliad translations, and her new one (NYT).

5. What happened to the global corporate tax rate deal?

6. People who make money running YouTube channels showing how much they lose by playing slot machines (WSJ).

Côte d’Ivoire claim of the day

Côte d’Ivoire citizens pay the highest income taxes in the world according to this year’s survey findings by World Population Review.

While both its sales and corporate tax regimes may be considerably lower than those of other countries globally, at 60%, Côte d’Ivoire’s income tax rates are markedly higher compared to developed countries.

Only Finland (56.95%), Japan (55.97%), Denmark (55.90%), and Austria (55%), closely follow Côte d’Ivoire to round up the top five countries with the highest income tax, in a study that surveyed over 150 countries.

How much people pay of course is yet another matter.  Here is the link, via Jodi Ettenberg.

From Kalshi Markets

I wanted to reach out and provide some updates about new markets on the Exchange that may be of interest. We have a new market on whether the FDA will approve a vaccine for kids, in addition to a market on whether the CDC will identify a “variant of high consequence” (Delta is only a “variant of concern”). We also have markets about whether the Fed will taper at its next meeting, whether the U.S. will raise the debt ceiling before October 19, and whether or not Jerome Powell will be replaced….We also have markets on whether the capital gains and corporate tax will be raised, in case that’s of interest.

Go trade!

Nach dem Gleichgewicht auflösen

Swiss-based multinationals such as commodities trader Glencore will receive subsidies and other incentives under plans Switzerland is drawing up to maintain its competitive tax rates, even as the country prepares to sign-up to the G7’s new plan for a global minimum tax on big businesses.

Bern is consulting its cantonal governments — which set their own corporate tax rates — to examine how measures such as research grants, social security deductions and tax credits could create a “toolkit” to offset any changes to headline tax rates, officials told the Financial Times.

Here is the full FT story by Sam Jones.

Saturday assorted links

1. Your Ponzi career?

2. People systematically overlook subtractive changes.  And a Patrick Collison comment: “An obvious point that took me way too long to appreciate: in software engineering, you should probably optimize for speed even when you don’t have to, because it’s one of the easiest/best ways to prioritize subtraction and parsimony in the solution space.”

3. Against alcohol.

4. Ezra Klein interviews Brian Deese about the economic thinking of the Biden Administration (with transcript).  A good instantiation of “where they are at.”

5. Various observations on the Biden corporate tax plan.

6. ‘Sense of Disappointment’ on the Left as the N.Y.C. Mayor’s Race Unfolds.” (NYT)  Again, I’m going to double down on my earlier claim that the progressive Left has peaked (which is not to claim that statism has peaked, it hasn’t).  This is NYC people!

7. Fact and fiction about Ethiopia’s ethnofederalism?  The content is hardly controversial to most readers I suspect, or even deeply committal on main issues, but the author chose anonymity nonetheless, which is itself a meta-comment on the piece’s own topic.

8. Map of all the physics particles and forces, highly useful, good explication, I don’t find any of this stuff intuitive.  “Strangely, there are no right-handed W bosons in nature.”  What is wrong with you people!?  Why can’t it all be windowless monads?  Or is it?

Monday assorted links

1. On the history and use of EUAs (NYT).

2. “…income dispersion created by a higher U.S. corporate tax rate offsets more than half of the distributional effects of reducing average returns to capital.

3. Sara Lowes on ethnographic and field data in economics.

4. Saez and Zucman respond to their critics in great detail.

5. The value of rapid self-testing for Covid-19.  Yes it works and the medical professionals and the FDA are wrong on this one.

6. Logistical problems with supplying monoclonal antibodies, important.  It is time to stop dumping on this treatment people, and get our act together.  Now.  Let’s not have another fiasco.  And a good NYT story on the whole topic, you can feel the media mood shifting toward the positive and away from the skeptical.

7. Can you even win at the Japanese crane game?  What else is like this?

8. The captain of Operation Warp Speed (WSJ).

9. How it enters your brain.  Or might.

10. A Fine Theorem on Milgrom and Wilson, recommended, note that Milgrom also does not have a Ph.D. in economics.