Results for “ufo” 115 found
Friday assorted links
1. Why is nuclear power plant construction so expensive? Oops, correct link here.
3. The world of blind mathematicians (2002).
4. Putin speaks his truth, yet again. How is it that so many have missed this for so long? Niall Ferguson (Bloomberg) laid out the case on January 2.
5. Has SCOTUS trust fallen apart?
6. Which professions think centuries ahead? And which professions think mainly in the moment?
The best arguments for and against the alien visitation hypothesis
Those are the subject of my latest Bloomberg column, about 2x longer than usual, WaPo link here. Excerpt, from the segment on arguments against:
The case against visits by aliens:
1. Alien sightings remain relatively rare.
Let’s say alien drone probes can make it here. That would imply the existence of a very advanced civilization that can span great distances and command energy with remarkable efficiency. If that’s the case, why isn’t the sky full of aliens? Why aren’t there sightings from more than just military craft?
So the question is not so much, “Why don’t we see aliens?” as, “Why don’t we see more of them?” It is a perfectly valid (and embarrassing) question. On one hand, the aliens are impressive enough to send craft here. On the other, they seem constrained by scarcity.
Are we humans like those bears filmed in the Richard Attenborough nature programs, worthy of periodic visits from drone cameras but otherwise of little interest? The reality is that bears, and indeed most other animals, see humans quite often…
3. The alien-origin hypothesis relies too much on the “argument from elimination.”
The argument from elimination is a common rhetorical tactic, but it can lead you astray. You start by listing what you think are all the possibilities and rule them out one by one: Not the Russians, not sensor error, and so on — until the only conclusion left is that they are alien visitors. As Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes once said: “When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”
The argument from elimination works fine when there is a fixed set of possibilities, such as the murder suspects on a train. The argument is more dangerous when the menu of options is unclear in the first place. Proponents of the alien origin view spend too much time knocking down other hypotheses and not enough time making the case for the presence of aliens.
And this:
There is an argument that is often used against the alien-origin hypothesis, but in fact can be turned either way: If they are alien visitors, why don’t we have better and more definitive forms of evidence? Why is the available video evidence so hard to interpret? Why isn’t there a proverbial “smoking gun” of proof for an alien spacecraft?
This particular counter isn’t entirely convincing. First, the best evidence may be contained in the still-classified materials. Second, the same question can be used against non-alien hypotheses. If the sensor readings were just storms or some other mundane phenomena, surely that would become increasingly obvious over time with better satellite imaging.
The continued, ongoing and indeed intensifying mystery of the sightings seems to militate in favor of a truly unusual explanation. It will favor both the alien-visitation and the religious-miracle hypotheses. If it really were a flock of errant birds, combined with some sensor errors, we would know by now.
Recommended.
Tuesday assorted links
1. Motorcycles and ferries are dangerous, in that order.
2. More on civil defense in Taiwan.
3. The great Dervla Murphy has passed away.
4. Last payphone in NYC to be removed.
5. Emily Oster makes Time 100 most influential people list.
6. To what extent is tritium a limit on nuclear fusion?
7. RH being provocative (in some regards I am the opposite of his approach as outlined here).
8. Profile of Anita Summers. And in praise of Steph Curry.
9. New, skeptical study on Long Covid. And Derek Lowe with more on that.
Wednesday assorted links
1. New non-profit for geothermal energy.
2. New Allison Schrager podcast, first episode with Joel Mokyr.
3. Who owns the publicity rights to Einstein?
4. Yann LeCun on AI risks. And why (some) octopus mothers self-mutilate and kill themselves.
5. “The subscribers presumably think they’re talking directly to the woman in the videos, and it is the job of the chatter to convincingly manifest that illusion.” (NYT, those new service sector jobs)
6. Virginia Postrel has a new Substack.
7. Mihm on the Henry Ford parallel (Bloomberg).
Tuesday assorted links
1. How long-term space missions change the brain.
2. Innovation in NYC subway crimes (New Yorker).
3. “Right to repair” doesn’t have to work out well.
5. The UFO hearings are on, and “For the majority of the incidents we had in last years report, the majority had multi-sensor data…”
The most underrated talent in AI?
Who are the most underrated talents in AI and machine learning?
Think technical, and think builders. More Midjourney, Gwern, and 15.ai.
Comments are open, thanks in advance!
Tuesday assorted links
1. Good piece on how top musical stars are increasingly doing private gigs.
2. Thomas Sargent on Learning from Lucas.
3. U.S. warship chased (but not grabbed). Must be another one of those camera errors. Or maybe they just made up the story altogether.
4. Are “Great Resignations” common during rapid economic recoveries?
5. Indigenous in Taiwan are receiving higher attention and status.
6. Are there octopus cities? And NYT coverage of octopuses. I liked this line: “The enclosures we use for octopuses are incredibly rich, to the point that we often can’t find them.” There are, by the way, no institutional constraints on how octopuses can be treated in the course of research.
Who gains and loses status from the war in Ukraine?
Today I will focus on the losers, with another post to follow on those who have gained status. Here goes:
1. An entire generation of German politicians.
2. Those who argued that the Russia misinformation machine was swinging major outcomes such as Western elections. Said misinformation machine just doesn’t seem that good!
2b. Those who argued the UFO footage was possibly of a Russian military craft.
3. Putin. And the coterie of Eurasianist intellectuals surrounding him, including Dugin. And various strands of the American right wing.
4. The anti-nuclear power crowd, and much of ESG more generally. Too much posturing, too few practical solutions and now the whole thing bites.
5. China, with India in contention but working somewhat to remedy the damage.
6. President Obama, for mocking Romney’s concern over Russia, in one of their debates.
7. People who spent most of their time debating The Woke, on either side of the issue.
8. Commentators and political scientists who saw the initial conflict as primarily about the eastward expansion of NATO. Putin’s war aims have shown this to be false (while to be clear Putin does also hate the eastern expansion of NATO). Desire to obliterate and absorb the nation of Ukraine far predates the history of NATO.
9. People who said “the next war will all be about cyber.” There is probably more cyberconflict going on than we are aware of, but still…
Who else?
Jesse Michels interviews me at Hereticon
Jesse’s description was “Wide ranging discussion with the brilliant @tylercowen. Topics include: Satoshi’s identity, Straussian Jesus, the Beatles and UFOs. Taped in early January but he presciently expresses concerns around Russia/Ukraine”
Great fun was had by all, and they added in nice visuals.
Wednesday assorted links
1. Which are the billionaires that Democrats like?
2. “Thousands Pledge To Egg Jeff Bezos’s Mega-Yacht As It Passes Through Rotterdam Bridge.”
3. Award winners from new Mercatus project on pluralism and civil society, with an EV-like application structure (but not selected by me).
5. My podcast excerpt with Joe Lonsdale. And for the full output YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnLPwI9taYA
6. Chatham University reinstitutes tenure after having abolished it.
What is actually a heretical view?
I was two days ago at Hereticon, and wondering which views actually should be considered heretical. It seems there are some distinct categories, for instance here are a few categories of the “partially heretical”:
1. Used to be heretical, or on the verge of switching.
Favoring gay marriage, or more on the border thinking that UFOs are of alien origin. The latter view is now presented with a straight face by former presidents and CIA heads, so it is not heretical any more. In polls, it is not even so unusual amongst the American public, though some elites will mock it and it remains outside of the mainstream.
2. It’s heretical to say but the actual idea is not heretical.
Presenting “eugenics” ideas is heretical, but talking about “dating” and “matchmaking” is not. Embryo selection is on the verge of not being heretical, if it ever was. Or talking about “the feminization of society” is modestly heretical, but believing women have a much greater cultural influence is not heretical at all. You just have to talk about it the right way.
3. The idea is not heretical globally.
But it might be heretical domestically, such as saying “the CCP is great.” Or “women should have their kids really young.” Those are a special category of heretical ideas, extremely common around the world, for better or worse, but still a no-no in some locales.
4. Popular views, but heretical with many elites.
Try “Darwin is wrong,” or “Facebook is fine.” How about “autocracy is good”? NB: In all of these discussions, I am not considering whether the belief is right or wrong.
Which would be a truly heretical belief that does not fall into these “partially heretical” categories? But it can’t be absurd either, for instance it is not “heretical” for me to believe I can jump one hundred feet in the air, rather it is simply stupid. I am also not looking for beliefs that offend or insult groups per se, as that is too easy. “Group X is crummy” is not interesting for my purposes.
Maybe here are a few outright heretical views, again noting that I am not endorsing them:
5. ESP works.
6. Whales are smarter than people and deeper thinkers too.
7. In fact you can trust Congress to do the right thing.
8. Ten percent inflation a year is just fine.
9. Fortunately America has so many guns that we couldn’t do very strict lockdowns for Covid.
10. It would be better if humans never had existed, as they have destroyed more welfare than they created. Most of all because of their effects on non-human animals.
11. Non-human animals suffer more than they enjoy, and it would be better if they did not exist.
12. American TV was much better in the 1960s and 1970s.
What else?
Most Popular MR Posts of the Year!
As measured by page views here are the most popular MR posts of 2021. Coming in at number 10 was Tyler’s post:
10. Best non-fiction books of 2021
Lots of good material there and well worth revisiting. Number 9 was by myself:
9. Revisionism on Deborah Birx, Trump, and the CDC
TDS infected many people but as the Biden administration quickly discovered the problems were much deeper than the president, leading to revisionism especially on the failures of the CDC and the FDA. Much more could be written here but this was a good start.
Number 8 was Tyler’s post:
8. The tax on unrealized capital gains
which asked some good questions about a bad plan.
7. We Will Get to Herd Immunity in 2021…One Way or Another
Sadly this post, written by me in January of 2021, had everything exactly right–we bottomed out at the end of June/early July as predicted. But then Delta hit and things went to hell. Sooner or later the virus makes fools of us all.
6. Half Doses of Moderna Produce Neutralizing Antibodies
One of my earlier pieces (written in Feb. 21) on fractional dosing. See also my later post A Half Dose of Moderna is More Effective Than a Full Dose of AstraZeneca. We have been slow, slow, slow. I hope for new results in 2022.
5. A few observations on my latest podcast with Amia Srinivasan
Listener’s took umbrage, perhaps even on Tyler’s behalf, at Srinivasan but Tyler comes away from every conversation having learned something and that makes him happy.
4. The Most Impressive AI Demo I Have Ever Seen
Still true. Still jaw-dropping.
3. Patents are Not the Problem!
I let loose on the Biden administration’s silly attacks on vaccine patents. Also still true. Note also that as my view predicts, Pfizer has made many licensing deals on Paxalovid which has a much simpler and easier to duplicate production process (albeit raw materials are still a problem.)
2. A Nobel Prize for the Credibility Revolution
A very good post, if I don’t say so myself, on this year’s Nobel prize recipients, Card, Angrist and Imbens.
1. How do you ask good questions?
Who else but Tyler?
To round out the top ten I’d point to Tyler’s post John O. Brennan on UFOs which still seems underrated in importance even if p is very low.
Erza Klein’s profile of me still makes me laugh, “He’s become a thorn in the side of public health experts…more than one groaned when I mentioned his name.” Yet, even though published in April many of these same experts are now openly criticizing the FDA and the CDC in unprecedented ways.
UFOs going mainstream or Tabarrok’s view of the FDA going mainstream. I’m not sure which of these scenarios was more unlikely ex ante. Strange world.
Let us know your favorite MR posts in the comments.
Wednesday assorted links
2. The latest on severity, from South African data. And a more general Omicron update.
3. Those newer (older?) service sector jobs: “Finding healthcare ‘soul-destroying,’ some turn to online sex work.”
Friday assorted links
1. Was Peter Thiel right about AI?
2. Some more game theory of MAD. The real dismal science.
3. Thousands of phone boxes to be saved from closure.
4. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
5. Persistence, a critical review.
6. Association between low density lipoprotein cholesterol and all-cause mortality.
My podcast with philosopher Jimmy Alfonso Licon
Somewhat less than an hour, here is his summary of our chat:
Prof. Cowen and I had a wide ranging interview on topics ranging from whether economic growth is a moral imperative, UFOs are extraterrestrials, rent seeking is a drain on the economy, things like Plato, pumpkin spice, and the Founding Fathers are overrated, why we should (or shouldn’t) care about chess, and how to think about failure, among other topics.
I am pleased to have Jimmy visiting at George Mason this year. Here is Jimmy’s home page and publications, note he is on the job market this year.