2. Conor Sen catnip: “For example, people in New York travel 38% fewer total kilometers and visit 14% fewer block-sized areas than people in Atlanta.” The paper has further interesting results.
4. Pareto: the virtual start-up assistant. A new product and company. The founder is EV winner Phoebe Yao.
3. U.S. prison CFR simulator (by Paul Novosad).
8. Matt Parlmer thread, recommended.
10. Straussian Swedes?: “In my household my opinion counts for little, and she has continued to live her life pretty normally (her high-school classes went online, however).”
4. New Taiwan test and trace data. Better and more relevant numbers than I have been seeing.
9. David Goldhill is upset. My short summary would be: “Public health experts insist on RCTs except when it comes to their own policy recommendations.” That’s right, isn’t it?
7. Innate immunology? (NYT)
10. Meara O’Reilly, Hockets for Two Voices, short distraction, by the way she is the daughter of Tim O’Reilly.
1. Black hole in the outer solar system? By Edward Witten.
5. Peruvian indigenous rap (NYT).
7. The culture that was French: France to sell some of nation’s antique furniture to support hospitals.
9. The culture that is Japan: should you video chat your local aquarium eel?
4. Words from Holman Jenkins (WSJ): “Please, if you are a journalist reporting on these matters and can’t understand “flatten the curve” as a multivariate proposition, leave the profession. You are what economists call a “negative marginal product” employee. Your nonparticipation would add value. Your participation subtracts it.”
5. NYT covers Sweden. In my view we still don’t know how well the Swedish experiment is working out, but a continuing verdict of “we still don’t know” does in fact favor Sweden relative to priors. And Thomas Friedman (NYT) on Sweden. And update on some Swedish numbers.
6. A reader email on why child abuse is not opposed more passionately: “Basically, I think it comes down to the problem of agency vs structure. The left (including myself) wants to emphasize that problems have large structural components so we need to change the system. However individual heinous acts don’t fit neatly into that paradigm. Plus, child abuse is pervasive enough that it is sort of structural itself, and talking about it can sound like blaming a community or demographic, or hitting close to racism. No idea why the right doesn’t emphasize it more other than the idea that it’s somehow “traditional”?”
7. Mel Baggs, disability advocate, RIP (NYT). Formerly known as Amanda Baggs.
8. Quarantine stereotypes (video, funny, some of it).
9. Will colleges lose twenty percent of their student body this year? Solve for the equilibrium.
10. Jason Furman: “If you had told me we would have a massive pandemic I would have predicted an increase in health spending. Shows why you shouldn’t listen to me. Health spending down 4.9% in Q1 (not annualized). Responsible for nearly 1/2 of the overall GDP decline. Likely down much more in Q2.” Correctly or not, that makes me feel better about the observed gdp decline. I am not minimizing the import of the non-Covid extra death toll (which is what exactly? Is it net even positive?), but I already felt bad about that.
2. Very good Derek Thompson piece on the evolution of retail (Atlantic).
4. Mulligan, Murphy, and Topel on Covid-related issues. They think like economists.
6. Osterholm and Olshaker on testing, good piece (NYT).
7. Coronavirus spreading in Africa more slowly than expected (FT but not gated).
8. Forced isolation.
1. “We also looked Iceland-scale mass population testing (i.e. 0.7% of population per day). Such testing would be very helpful for monitoring the epidemic, but unsurprisingly it had a negligible impact on reducing transmission, because cases would be detected too late (if at all)”, link here.
4. “A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.”
8. Vaccine update.
9. Solving for the equilibrium: “Some of the millions of British workers furloughed during the coronavirus lockdown will be encouraged to take a second job picking fruit and vegetables, the government has said. Giving the daily COVID-19 briefing, Environment Secretary George Eustice said only a third of the migrant workers who normally picked fruit and vegetables were currently in the country.”
11. Which retailers generate the most physical interactions? (Big, internationally known chains) Might the same be true for restaurants?
12. “The scenario of one million Covid-19 deaths is similar in scale to the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the Covid-19 deaths will be concentrated in months rather than spread out over decades.” Link here.
7. Russians mimicking famous art works (NYT).
3. Podcast with Chris Murray on the IHME model (have not heard it yet).
4. Iceland update, lots of data, useful pictures.
5. A French cluster: “The overall IAR was 25.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 22.6-29.4), and the infection fatality rate was 0% (one-sided 97.5% CI = 0-2.1).”
2. “We show irradiance and in particular solar zenith angle in combination with cloudopacity explain COVID-19 morbidity and mortality growth better than temperature.” Interesting, though still more interpretation is needed there.
5. “Southern New Hampshire University, known for being on the cutting edge of collegiate learning, plans to slash tuition for incoming freshmen as it drastically revamps how it conducts on-campus learning beginning in the fall.As part of the changes, tuition will be cut 61%, from $31,000 to $10,000 starting in the 2021-2022 academic year.” Link here.
7. Is the internet economy going to crash as the real economy shrinks? Several interesting points in that one.
9. Bundled insurance markets in everything: “COVID-19 insurance comes free with food delivery in Hong Kong now.”
2. Further doubts on the LOA and Santa Clara serology stories, it now seems they really do not establish any particular results.
9. Various forms of presenting state-level data. What exactly is going on with Ohio?
11. Department of Why Not?: “Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force.”
13. The Fed and saving cities (NYT).
7. Salim Furth blames the automobile, not the NYC subway. And here is criticism of the subway result from a blogger. Reading both my judgment is that the subway result does not hold up.
10. “Wash Your Hands,” Roaring Lion, Trinidad calypso.
6. How the Belgians count Covid-19 deaths. I call that one big nursing home fail, and I don’t just mean for Belgium.
8. Claims about heterogeneous strains — please use with extreme caution, I do not consider this verified, though it could be very important if true.
9. Study of France — only about 6% infected, other numbers too.