Results for “africa”
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Nozick’s Wilt Chamberlain example

Let’s say a bunch of poor kids all pay to see Wilt Chamberlain play basketball.  Wilt gets the money, the kids get to see the game.  At the end of the day Wilt is richer and the kids are poorer.  Since we wouldn’t object to any one of these transactions, why should we object to the resulting pattern?  Robert Nozick went further and argued that any "pattern-based" notion of justice would require continual and unjustified interference in personal liberties.  That was one of the most famous claims in his Anarchy, State, and Utopia; here is another summary of the argument

I’m all for the NBA but I’ve never been overwhelmed by this approach.  I agree that there is "nothing unjust" about the Chamberlain outcome but still perhaps we can do better in consequentialist terms.  Nozick’s argument defeats egalitarian leveling but does it really refute, say, mildly progressive taxation?  What if we could tax Wilt a bit and make life much better for the kids?  Without invoking public choice skepticism about government (which indeed is important), what’s so bad about that?  Is it morally wrong?  Wilt is still quite free and we get some social good in return.

I’m usually skeptical of moral arguments that don’t confront the question of "at what margin" straight up.  I will, however, buy this (abbreviated) argument:

1. A doctor is not required to devote his entire life, or even a part of it, to helping poor kids in Africa, even if he could create greater good by doing so.  Personal autonomy matters.

2. The right to keep the product of your labor — money! — is a big part of autonomy, even though it is not always recognized as such.

3. Barring end-of-the-civilized-world exigencies, no one should be forced to part with more than a certain percentage of his or her income, even when valuable public goods are at stake.  There is, after all, no end to good ideas for redistribution, not the least of which is the helicopter drop to Malawi.  We all draw the line somewhere, so it’s not enough to cite benevolence to defeat the claims of property rights and the demand for low taxes.

4. Adhering to such a percentage rule will have desirable consequentialist properties, given the public choice problems with government behavior.  Thus a kind of consilience supports this moral view.

That all said, I do not believe we have a very clear or very scientific answer as to what the right percentage is.  Furthermore "the proper percentage" is likely contingent upon historical circumstances.  I take that as representing a partial — but only partial — endorsement of Nozick’s Wilt Chamberlain argument and of course I reject the deontological ("just don’t!") nature of Nozick’s approach altogether.

Warning to extreme libertarians: Don’t even try to argue that zero is the maximum permissible rate of taxation.  Would you abolish all taxation today, immediately, if it meant a rapid collapse into social chaos?

Warning to social democrats: You are used to citing beneficience arguments to argue for raising taxes.  But you reject beneficence arguments yourself, when you refuse to step into the shoes of Peter Singer and call for even more redistribution.  I want to make you feel guilty about this tension.  What you’d like to do is dismiss Singer with a separate argument and then turn your fire to the anti-tax types and feel that beneficence is always on your side.  It isn’t. 

Here is my earlier post on Nozick’s experience machine.  Here is Will Wilkinson with more on Rawls.  Going back to our earlier discussion, Ross Douthat has provided an excellent discussion of notable conservative books.  I am a big fan of Nozick’s book although a) I don’t consider it "conservative," and b) I like the obscure sections best, such as the discussion of anarchy and government in the first part.

Johannes Fedderke and the importance of good governance

File him in the category underappreciated economists.  Does good governance matter for growth?  Could there be a more important question for economists? The standard cross-sectional growth tests do not show much of a robust effect.  But Johannes, along with co-authors Robert Klitgaard and Kamil Akramov, has a 150-page paper showing that if you take all the relevant heterogeneities into account yes, Adam Smith and Doug North were right after all.

Or do you prefer simple regressions which meet the eyeball test?

Here is the full paper.  Here is Johannes’s long paper on South African economic history.

The Copenhagen Consensus and its critics

Abhijit Banerjee, Angus Deaton, and Esther Duflo are all upset.  You might recall the most famous recommendation of the Copenhagen Consensus was to invest in anti-HIV/AIDS programs as a higher priority than global warming.  Banerjee writes:

Similarly, the proposal on HIV/AIDS seems to have entirely missed the mounting evidence…that we do not really know how to get people to behave in ways that would reduce the transmission of HIV.

Angus Deaton writes:

Lomborg’s Consensus does not even identify the "we" who are to spend the $50 billion, although it certainly shares Sachs’ confidence in the usefulness of social engineering by well-meaning outside experts.

Maybe that criticism is unfair; Lomborg might say he is playing by the rules of other people’s games.  Esther Duflo writes:

…to my knowledge there is very little rigorous evidence on effective [HIV-AIDS] prevention strategies in Africa.

The three reviews are all in the Journal of Economic Literature, December 2007.  The bottom line is that $50 billion doesn’t go as far as you might think. 

Michael Shermer’s Mind of the Market

This book is the latest attempt to justify freedom and the market economy by reference to the knowledge of science and biology.  Here is my review, in Washington Post Book World.  Excerpt:

I’m sympathetic to Shermer’s conclusions, but I fear his standard of evaluation is too blunt an instrument. If the options are capitalism and the Khmer Rouge, no doubt capitalism wins hands down. But to what extent should we restrain capitalism to fund a social safety net? Should our government place heavy taxes on beer and potato chips to fund the National Science Foundation at higher levels? Most broadly, to what extent is it morally permissible to interfere with freedom, or can we even use freedom as a concept in a world where we do social science by hooking people up to brain scanners?

Shermer is famous for founding the Skeptics Society and editing the magazine Skeptic, which debunks claims of the supernatural. His monthly column for Scientific American is a regular plea that reason should govern human affairs. But his book raises very real questions about just how far skepticism should extend. Should we also be skeptical about using moral judgments of right and wrong to address the tough questions of politics? For instance, can we make normative judgments about who deserves to pay how much of the tax burden to finance the U.S. government, or as to whether somebody’s job should be protected from foreign trade?
Shermer either needs to dismiss moral philosophy as an illusion and a mere byproduct of human evolution, and thus display skepticism, or he needs to grant it credence and take his own moral stance. Descriptive science doesn’t tell us whether it is fair to allow kidneys to be bought and sold, even if it helps explain why some people find the practice repugnant. Judgments of right and wrong cannot be avoided, and thus we tread away from the realm of familiar natural science.
There are really two books within "The Mind of the Market." The science book is finished and polished, yet it does not present fundamentally new results. The book on capitalism discusses important questions, yet it is unfinished and unpolished. Shermer does promise us an entire new book to fill in the missing pieces here. He already has earned the right to our attention; the next question is whether he will give his philosophic and romantic side the greater rein that it deserves and requires. This East African plains ape is optimistic.

Keeping your eye on the electoral ball

I have some tips for keeping track of who is most likely to win a presidential election.  You all know about the prediction markets, here are a few other mental categories which I find useful.  There is real evidence for them, but I can’t pretend they all command a consensus in the political science literature.  I do, however, think they are true, in part because they are consistent with my underlying views of human behavior:

1. People tend to overreact to the news of the moment in predicting a winner, don’t make this mistake.  Ultimately election outcomes are determined by the fundamentals of the comparison.  For instance if you wish to argue that Hillary Clinton will still be the Democratic nominee, just ponder all those Latinos and blue collar workers out there.  They’re not responding to most of the cues analyzed by the net roots bloggers.  For any forecast you make, imagine yourself telling it to the guy sitting next to you at the West Virginia K-Mart, and see if it passes his laugh test.

2. Party disunity predicts an electoral loss; if you are a Democrat you should worry about this.  It remains to be seen how deep the Republican squabbles will run.  Read the work on Martin P. Wattenberg on this question, of course party disunity can either be a cause of loss or a symptom of other problems.  The state of the party (just like market prices) also aggregates information.

3. The swing voters in the American citizenry don’t really trust the Democrats with foreign policy and won’t anytime soon, whether this is rational or not.  Signs that the election will center around the economy help the Democrats.  Signs that the economy will focus on foreign policy help the Republicans.

4. When a woman or an African-American or a former first Lady is running for President, that is a huge issue in the minds of voters, whether anyone admits it or not.

There is reasonable though not decisive academic evidence for points #2 and #3.  #4 is of course a wildcard, and #1 I have never seen tested; a study might find mean-reversion in the betting markets, I do not know.  Based on this list, I am still thinking that most people are underestimating the chances of a Republican President (the ascendancy of John McCain is starting to reverse this tendency), noting that #2 and #4 are working for my view, but #3 is working against it, at least at the moment.

Blogging Death in LA

The LATimes has a blog, The Homicide Report, that covers murders in LA.  Here is one entry:

Timothy Johnson, 37, a black man, was shot multiple times at 939 E.
92nd Street in Watts at about 3:23 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 25, and died at
the scene. Police officers had received a "shots fired" call and found
him. He had been visiting friends in the area.

He had gone to a party that night, then had stopped on his way home
to socialize with friends outside. His shooters came by walking or
driving. He was hit multiple times. When officers arrived, he was
alone, dead on the ground, and the people who had been outside with him
had disappeared. A pit-bull puppy chained in the yard was curled on his
body.

The comments begin as you might expect from families and friends.

… The life of an African American Man in LA has proven to be a fight
till the death. I am struggling now as I sit here looking at your
picture. All the years we spent growing up together, supporting each
other and just loving one another. I Love you!! You were my cousin by
birth but my brother at heart.

Love Kim

Posted by: Khaleelah Muhammad | November 28, 2007 at 04:50 PM

but then a darker story is revealed:

To all the people speaking glowing words about this man … im sure
some of you know and for those that dont, this man was a killer and it
was known by LAPD that he has blood on his hands. Trust me he got what
he deserved and what i prayed for. He now has to meet GOD face to face
and face the people that HE has killed

Posted by: Satisfyied Person | November 29, 2007 at 11:03 AM

Many entries excerpted in the LATimes can be found here, all of the comments (start at the bottom and work up) are here.

Further meta-list selections for the year

Again, this is me reporting what I think are the consensus picks, not my personal opinions:

1. Best jazz album of the year: Charles Mingus Sextet with the Eric Dolphy, Cornell 1964.  Personally I like this CD very much, but I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who doesn’t already know most of the essential Mingus.  Dee Dee Bridgewater, who sings jazz over a kora background from Mali, was another popular selection.  I often find jazz singing too facile but the African mix provides an appropriately meaty counterweight.

2. World music: Tinariwen, Aman Iman: Water Is Life.  They’re the desert nomads who were described as the world’s greatest rock and roll band by Slate.com.  Runner-up would be Segu Blue, by Bassekou Kouyate and Ngoni Ba.  Acoustic string music from Mali is in this year, plus there is Bembeya Jazz National, from Guinea.  Here is a very good NPR list of top world music picks.

3. Haitian CD: Erol Josue, Regleman.  A clear winner in this category.

4. Lee Perry collection: Ape-ology.  The best of the best.  Again.  It’s funny, but this category has a winner just about every year.  In the Coasian durable goods monopoly game, price is falling rapidly…

Would it have helped to give freed slaves land?

Melinda Miller says yes, based on a clever natural experiment:

Although over 140 years have passed since slaves were emancipated in the United States, African-Americans continue to lag behind the general population in terms of earnings and wealth. Both Reconstruction era policy makers and modern scholars have argued that racial inequality could have been reduced or eliminated if plans to allocate each freed slave family “forty acres and a mule” had been implemented following the Civil War. In this paper, I develop an empirical strategy that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in policies of the Cherokee Nation and the southern United States to identify the impact of free land on the economic outcomes of former slaves. The Cherokee Nation, located in what is now the northeastern corner of Oklahoma, permitted the enslavement of people of African descent. After joining the Confederacy in 1861, the Cherokee Nation was forced during post-war negotiations to allow its former slaves to claim and improve any unused land in the Nation’s public domain. To examine this unique population of former slaves, I have digitized the entirety of the 1860 Cherokee Nation Slave Schedules and a 60 percent sample of the 1880 Cherokee Census. I find the racial gap in land ownership, farm size, and investment in long-term capital projects is smaller in the Cherokee Nation than in the southern United States. The advantages Cherokee freedmen experience in these areas translate into smaller racial wealth and income gaps in the Cherokee Nation than in the South. Additionally, the Cherokee freedmen had higher absolute levels of wealth and higher levels of income than southern freedmen. These results together suggest that access to free land had a considerable and positive benefit on former slaves.

Here is the paper, she is on the job market this year from University of Michigan.  The abstract is vague on magnitudes, for more detail see pp.29-30, for instance:

The livestock calculations find that the difference in the wealth gaps was substantial, and ranged from 46% to 75%.  For crop income measures, the difference in the gap was smaller, but still substantial.  My estimates place it between 20 to 56%.

Benjamin Friedman

Right or wrong, or perhaps somewhere in between, Clark’s is about as
stimulating an account of world economic history as one is likely to
find. Let’s hope that the human traits to which he attributes economic
progress are acquired, not genetic, and that the countries that grow in
population over the next 50 years turn out to be good at imparting
them. Alternatively, we can simply hope he’s wrong.

Here is the full review.

Addendum: Here is today’s NYT essay, arguing for the genetic unity of mankind, here is a previous Slate piece.  Here is a good NYT excerpt:

During World War II, both black and white American soldiers fathered
children with German women. Thus some of these children had 100 percent
European heritage and some had substantial African heritage. Tested in
later childhood, the German children of the white fathers were found to
have an average I.Q. of 97, and those of the black fathers had an
average of 96.5, a trivial difference.

Second addendum: Here is Deirdre McCloskey’s review of Clark.

The best two sentences I read this morning

Charge 80% per year on a loan in the U.S. and you’re called a usurer.  Charge 80% on a loan in Latin America or Africa and you can be a poverty-alleviation charity.

That is Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman, in today’s WSJ, "In Defense of Usury," p.A18.  Karlan and Zinman discuss their study showing that micro-credit borrowers in South Africa are better off for receiving the money, even when they pay very high interest rates.

Does trade spread AIDS?

Emily Oster tackles this question:

I generate new data on HIV incidence and prevalence in Africa based on inference from mortality rates. I use these data to relate economic activity (specifically, exports) to new HIV infections in Africa and argue there is a significant and large positive relationship between the two: a doubling of exports leads to as much as a quadrupling in new HIV infections. This relationship is consistent with a model of the epidemic in which truckers and other migrants have higher rates of risky behavior, and their numbers increase in periods with greater exports. I present evidence suggesting that the relationship between exports and HIV is causal and works, at least in part, through increased transit. The result has important policy implications, suggesting (for example) that there is significant value in prevention focused on these transit-oriented groups. I apply this result to study the case of Uganda, and argue that a decline in exports in the early 1990s in that country appears to explain between 30% and 60% of the decline in HIV infections. This suggests that the success of the Ugandan education campaign against HIV…has been overstated.

Since I used to believe Samuel Brittan when he argued that trade spreads sex, this result accords with my intuitions.

I thank Scott for the pointer.  There should be an algorithm informing me every time there is a new Emily Oster paper.  If Scott is indeed such an algorithm, I am pleased.  And of course I am that algorithm for you.