Results for “writing”
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Paul Krugman, pussycat

The Conscience of a Liberal is um…not that polemic.  It’s not that shrill.  There is an argument, to be sure, but the book has much more economic history than I had expected, and much more political history.

I’ve already blogged on The Great Compression; Krugman’s more detailed account in the book does emphasize the role of war, wage and price controls, and very high rates of taxation.  Normative questions aside, Krugman’s positive analysis isn’t as far from mine as I had been expecting from his blog post.

Some claims in the book are simply wrong: "…if there’s a single reason blue-collar workers did so much better in the fifties than they had in the twenties, it was the rise of unions."  (p.49)  Of course it was instead greater capital investment per head and better technology; if Krugman means relative status he needs to say so.  This conflation of relative and absolute magnitudes is a running problem throughout the first part of the book.

Most of all, today’s world — or even an extrapolated version thereof — isn’t nearly as like the Gilded Age as Krugman suggests.  Absolute standards of living really do matter, and most Americans today live very fine lives, or if they don’t the economy is not at fault.

Krugman writes of "the vast right-wing conspiracy" repeatedly, and in these moments he verges on the shrill.  But Bush receives virtually no attention; perhaps Krugman is simply sick of writing about the guy

Conservatism rose in the 1980s in large part because the mid to late 1970s were such an economic mess and because American had lost so much relative status internationally.  Krugman won’t face up to that; instead he blames the Republican manipulation of "the race card," even though at the time racial tensions arguably were lower than ever before.  Of course in a relatively close election any single factor can be called decisive but I found this discussion well below the standards of the political science literature, even the popular political science literature.

Krugman calls for single-payer health insurance, tax hikes, and raising the minimum wage.  He doesn’t come off as all that radical.

His theory of government failure is that wealthy right-wingers hijack the state to redistribute wealth to themselves, and that’s all we hear on what’s wrong with government.  That’s the part of the book I find hardest to swallow, but if you’re asking "should I read this?" the answer is yes.

My prediction: For lack of red meat, this book won’t sell nearly as well as Naomi Klein’s latest.  At my Borders, circa 4 p.m., they hadn’t even unpacked it.  "Yeah, we have that in the back somewhere, I haven’t seen it yet." was what the guy said.

My question:  Is Paul Krugman willing to come out and simply pronounce: "Margaret Thatcher turned the UK around and for the better"?  If so, how does this square with his broader narrative?  And if not, why not?

Addendum: Here is Ed Glaeser’s review.

Why the Left should learn to love liberalism

Labour-market flexibility, deregulation of the service industry,
pension reforms and greater competition in university funding is not
anti-equality. Such reforms shift financing from taxpayers to the users
themselves and, as such, tend to eliminate rents. They tend to increase
productivity by basing rewards on merit rather than on being an
insider. They tend to open up opportunities for younger workers who are
not yet well-connected. Pursuing pro-market reforms does not imply
facing a trade-off between efficiency and social justice. In this
sense, pro-market policies are “left wing”, if that means reducing the
economic privileges enjoyed by “insiders”.

…If the European left wants to be able to say honestly that it fights
for the neediest members of our society, it must adopt as its battle
cry the pursuit of competition, reforms and a system based on
meritocracy.

Amen.  This is from an excellent op-ed by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi writing in Vox.  My only complaint is that they write as if this is new.  In fact, liberalism, meaning classical liberalism, has never been conservative.  It began as a movement of the left against feudalistic, conservative insiders and it remains so today.

Tyranny of the Majority, Tyler Cowen Edition

Two different Tylers talk about the Tyranny of the Majority.

Earlier today:

I like Joel’s book but I think he is far too pessimistic about the prospects for diversity in the modern world.

But when discussing the different flavors of economics:

The very existence of heterodox economics brings benefits.  A
personal anecdote will suffice.  My first two publications were both in
heterodox journals: the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and the (institutionalist) Review of Social Economy.
These articles lifted me into a top graduate school and financial aid
(can you imagine how confused the admissions committees were to see a
GMU undergrad with an apparently leftie publication record?).  I would
not have had comparable success at Econometrica.

This tale relates to the value of diversity more generally.  We will
miss much of the value of diversity by simply listing a bunch of
diverse elements and evaluating them one-by-one.  Diversity brings
broader benefits by allowing people to use niches as ladders to further
steps, frequently into the mainstream, or in my case into another
niche.  Diversity is also a form of insurance, and of course it doesn’t
always pay off.  Finally many excellent mainstream or sometimes even
right-wing economists started with an intense interest in social
justice, often gleaned from heterodox writings.  Vernon Smith was once
a socialist, and George Stigler was early on a trust-basher.

Yes the profession is getting better but we also are losing too much
diversity in terms of schools of thought.  The diminution of the
Austrian School, as an organized and intellectually alive phenomenon
seems to me a shame, even though I don’t believe in a unique Austrian
method.  Heterodoxies encourage the mainstream to be more philosophical
and more self-reflective.

Sometimes intellectual inefficiency is efficient, and my remarks about heterodox economics should be taken in this light.

The emphasis is mine.  As is the question: Isn’t the second Tyler describing the Tyranny of the Majority?  If so, what are the Waldfogel-ian fixed costs that are preventing all the different flavors of economics from flourishing?

Markets in everything, American Indian edition

I’m mystified by Joel Waldfogel’s claim — and Nike’s claim — that, until now, there have been no markets in shoes just for American Indians.

American Indian shoes have been produced and traded for centuries.  Most of all they have been produced by American Indians.  Some of them are called moccasins.  Here is a bibliography of writings on American Indian footware.  Here are native American clothing stores, which also sell shoes.  Here is a craft manual for how to make American Indian footwear.

And of course plenty of companies make extra-wide and extra-large shoes, though of course not for American Indians exclusively.  There is the Mexican market as well, which caters to many "indigenous shapes," although admittedly on the shorter side. 

I like Joel’s book but I think he is far too pessimistic about the prospects for diversity in the modern world.  It’s also worth noting that if any group has been victimized and robbed by government, and driven into partial isolation, it is the American Indian.

Politically Incorrect Paper, a continuing series

Several years ago Bill Cosby chided poor blacks for spending their limited incomes on high-priced shoes and other items of conspicuous consumption instead of investing in education.  Cosby was widely criticized but I went to the numbers, specifically Table 2100 of the Consumer Expenditure Survey and found the following for 2003:

Average income of whites and other races: $53,292.
Average income of blacks: $34,485.

Expenditures on footwear by whites and other races: $274
Expenditures on footwear by blacks: $440.

As I noted then "to do a proper comparison we
would have to correct for income and other demographic variables."  The correction has now been done by three researchers in an NBER working paper (non-gated version).  The results didn’t surprise me.  How about you?

Using nationally representative data on consumption, we show that
Blacks and Hispanics devote larger shares of their expenditure bundles
to visible goods (clothing, jewelry, and cars) than do comparable
Whites.  We demonstrate that these differences exist among virtually all
sub-populations, that they are relatively constant over time, and that
they are economically large.

To give the authors credit where credit is due they also show that the differences in conspicuous consumption are large and important.  The differences in spending on clothing, jewelry, and cars, for example, can explain half of the differences in wealth between the races (conditional on permanent income) and a significant share of the differences in education and health spending.

Why do these differences exist?  Aside from simple differences in preferences, signaling is one possible explanation.   Suppose that high income confers status.  Other people judge your income based on your conspicuous consumption and your group’s income.  Under plausible conditions, the authors show that if your group’s income is already high conspicuous consumption has a low marginal product.  Put differently a black man who wears a very expensive suit gets a bigger increase in status than a white man who wears the same expensive suit because the baseline income prediction is lower for the former. 

The theory is plausible but I wonder if other groups haven’t converged on more efficient methods of signaling.  Some groups, for example, use education as a signal.  Other groups like to show how clever they are by writing pithy summaries of new economics research.

Hobbies in everything

Is this a Mengerian spontaneous order story, or not?:

Kisa, 28, a student and translator in Toronto, decided to create her
own language, something simple that would help clarify her thinking. 
She called it Toki Pona — "good language" — and gave it just 120
words.

"Ale li pona," she told herself. "Everything will be OK."

Kisa eventually sorted through her thoughts and, to her great surprise,
her little language took off, with more than 100 speakers today,
singing Toki Pona songs, writing Toki Pona poems and chatting with Toki
Pona words.

It’s all part of a weirdly Babel-esque boom of new languages.  Once the
private arena of J.R.R. Tolkien, Esperanto speakers and grunting
Klingon fanatics, invented languages have flourished on the Internet
and begun creeping into the public domain.

The website Langmaker.com lists more than 1,000 language inventors and 1,902 made-up languages, from `Ayvárith to Zyem.

The language inventors have, of course, created a word to describe what they do — "conlang," short for constructed languages.

Here is the full story.  Here is a word list for Toki Pona.  Here are general resources.  The language has only a few dozen proverbs but one of them is nasin mami li ike, or "capitalism is negative."  There are by far more words about sex than anything else ("Kisa created Toki Pona as an exercise in minimalism, looking for the core vocabulary that is necessary to communicate"), and here is how the countries have been renamed.

Sadly: "Some want to express complicated thoughts in Toki Pona, running counter to its design."

Self-negating admissions

And call me naive, but I also think that Mugabe would not have pursued
his policies for this long if he had a better grasp of debt dynamics. 

That’s Dani Rodrik

You all can debate Mugabe if you want, I’m interested in the notion of a self-negating admission.  By writing "…call me naive" Rodrik is showing a level of self-awareness which seems to be signaling he is not naive.  A more direct example of such a construct would be "Call me unwilling to accept outside labels, but…" — the mere act of writing the statement is showing a willingness to accept at least one outside label (namely: unwilling to accept outside labels), which in turn means the writer cannot be unwilling to accept all such labels.

Call me unwilling to use self-negating admissions, but I wonder why writing "Call me naive…" should be more effective than simply writing "I am not naive."  Or for that matter writing "I am naive."  (What is the influence-maximizing claim to make about one’s own naivete?)

Don’t forget Dani Rodrik has a new book coming out: One Economics, Many Recipes.  I don’t agree with all of it, but it is a valuable correction to the hubris of many other writers.

A Farewell to Alms, through p.272

…comes again on the question of science.  He points out correctly that most of the major technological innovators did not get much for their efforts.  Clark therefore does not see the late 18th century or early 19th century as giving special incentives for science.  I agree as far as he goes, but I view the incentives for science more broadly.

Core Europe, starting in late medieval times, developed a new and still poorly understood organizational technology.  This was, very roughly, the ability to work in groups, cumulate technologies and advances, and learn from each other in competitive environments.  Most notably, this new technology led the Florentine and Venetian Renaissances, especially in the visual arts.  But there was more.  The rise of printing.  The rise of classical music, starting in 1685 or whenever.  The rise of early modern philosophy.  Europe goes crazy with inventiveness, albeit in splats and bursts.  (Clark’s own chapter 12 gives good evidence for this tendency, though it will play a less central role in his version of the story.)

It is also the case that most of these bursts of inventiveness didn’t do much for the average standard of living.  Yes mastering oil paint technique made Florence richer but not so much.

It just so happened that one of these bursts came in science, technology, and engineering.  And it came in England, mostly for reasons of "national character."  It just so happened that the English burst did more for the standard of living, for reasons of external benefits.  But having had such a burst was not unique to England.  England was just one spoke on a more broadly turning wheel, and a European distribution of bursts was well in place prior to most of the special conditions we might find in England.

England, by the way, also had the literary revolution of the 18th century, and England plus Scotland drove the rise of modern economics.  There is no Chinese Adam Smith and that is because that Europe was pulling decisively ahead in ideas production.  I consider this a fact of great importance whereas for Clark it is a sideshow to some other story.

Most generally, I see the historical problem of growth through the lens of culture — in the sense of the history of the arts, music, and letters — more than through the economic history literature.  I am very taken by Max Weber’s writing on Western music and also his conception of the broader style of Western rationality.  And I see the rise of these organizational improvements as a central — the central? — story of early modern Europe and the move to prosperity.  It simply took a long time to apply these organizational movements to science, and to turn that science into concrete technical advances.

None of this need contradict Clark and indeed you will find parts of this narrative in his book.  But unlike Clark I would not superimpose this on a broader Malthusian story or an emphasis on the long run.  Nor am I putting much stock in genetic evolution.  So these organizational/technological improvements, in my view, move closer to the center of the story of European progress.

Unlike Clark, I think incentives to create matter greatly, but not through patents or other direct pecuniary rate of return effects.  The great creators have a burning desire to create, provided they have the opportunity to do so.  This new European technology of organization (whatever it should be called), combined with growing wealth for the upper classes, meant that such creative opportunities were far more available than ever before.  And powerful intellects grabbed them, for reasons of psychic incentives.  So incentives are paramount to the European story, while Clark remains correct in criticizing the standard account of how those incentives might have mattered.

I also see England has having innovated with the quality of its state in particular its fiscal grounding.  I wish this played a larger role in Clark’s account although of course I understand why it does not.  Institutions are not allowed to become a competing force on center stage.  The economic returns from colonies might be given more play as well.

Overall I am willing to accept many of Clark’s arguments, but I always go back to wanting to superimpose a broader institutional story on his microfoundations.

He resists that move, and that is the major place where I part company with him.  I think he is too intent on pushing institutional and ideological factors off the stage; I am happy to allow Clark’s factors on the stage — most of all gradual growth downward mobility and quality of labor — but I want a very busy and cluttered stage.

I believe, by the way, that if Clark’s vision were correct, Australia and New Zealand would be stronger economic powerhouses than has turned out to be the case.

The Ethics of Book Abuse

"Every reader has a personal ethic for how to treat a book, a morality for what can and can’t be done to the physical object."  Is dog-earing a page a violation of the sanctity of the volume, or an easy way to hold your place?  What about highlighting key passages, or writing notes in the margins?  Or even (gasp!) throwing out an old book you don’t want anymore?

Here is the link.  I do not believe that books have rights, Nozickian or otherwise.  I am most likely to rip up travel books if only to minimize my carry burden.  But I don’t write in books because I wish to discover new ideas — and not just my old ideas — each time I open them up.  Dog-earing pages is useful because you can go back to old books and see how far in them you read and then decide you really shouldn’t give it another chance after all.

Here is a story about book left behind in hotel rooms, including a list of the top 10 most abandoned titles (UK).

One proposal for improving the rating agencies

…Levy and Peart propose a simple solution: randomization. 
Rotate ratings firms the way that baseball rotates umpires. 
If they were assigned by lottery, rating agencies would have enhanced incentives to take the public interest into account — and diminished incentives to try to please underwriting institutions that were paying the bills.  Something of the sort was incorporated among the reforms mandated for accounting firms by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 — the rotation every five years of the lead audit partner and the reviewing audit partner was required, for example, and more frequent changes of firms themselves was recommended. But the measures stopped well short of randomization.

Here is the full discussion.  Yes that Levy is my colleague David Levy, who has been a major influence on our department, most of all through his book The Economic Ideas of Ordinary People.

The Bottom Billion

Paul Collier’s The Bottom Billion is the best economics book not written by a dear friend that I have read this year, it’s full of serious, important ideas and the writing sparkles.

You won’t find a better explanation of the time consistency problem, for example, than this brief bit on the Chad-Cameron pipeline.  As you may recall, the World Bank lent Chad money for the pipeline on condition that the money would be controlled not by the government but by an independent panel, the "College," with members drawn from civil society. 

The deal was that the government of Chad would pass a law establishing the College, and in return the oil companies would sink $4.2 billion of investment into oil extraction.  Now ask yourself which of these is easier to reverse, the law or the investment.  Once you have answered that, you have understood the time consistency problem…

Brilliant.  Collier then goes on to make the important point that the idea of giving control of resources to independent service organizations rather than to governments is in many cases a good one but the idea applies better to aid than to oil because…

With aid you do not have to sink $4.2 billion in order to get started.  It is just a flow of money that can be switched off, unlike the flow of oil.  Knowing this, the government has no incentive to tear up the deal.

Here is Tyler on the Bottom Billion.

Economic Inquiry has a new policy

R. Preston McAfee (a great choice) is the new editor, and he writes in a mass email today:

More
insidious, in my view, is the gradual morphing of the referees from
evaluators to anonymous co-authors. Referees request increasingly
extensive revisions. Usually these represent improvements, but the
process takes a lot of time and effort, and the end result is often
worse owing to its committee-design. Authors, knowing referees will
make them rewrite the paper, are sometimes sloppy with the submission.
This feedback loop – submitting a sloppy paper since referees will
require rewriting combined with a need to fix all the sloppiness – has
led to our current misery. Moreover, the expectation that referees will
rewrite papers, combined with sloppy submissions, makes refereeing
extraordinarily unpleasant. We – the efficiency-obsessed academic
discipline – have the least efficient publication process.

The system is broken.

Consequently, Economic
Inquiry is starting an experiment. In this experiment, an author can
submit under a ‘no revisions’ policy. This policy means exactly what
it says: if you submit under no revisions, I (or the co-editor) will
either accept or reject. What will not happen is a request for a
revision.

I
will ask referees: ‘is it better for Economic Inquiry to publish the
paper as is, versus reject it, and why or why not?’ This policy returns
referees to their role of evaluator. There will still be anonymous
reports.

Authors
who receive an acceptance would have the option of publishing without
changes. If a referee noticed a minor problem and put it in the report,
self-respecting authors would fix the problem. But such fixes would not
be a condition of publication.      

You could try dating women on this basis as well; we’ll see how it goes.  Elsewhere in the world of journals, Science is ending its link to JSTOR, a sad moment for scholarship.

Economists who collect art

Here is the story, here is one bit at the end:

Now that the Bhagwatis have acquired a strong collection, they have decided to shift their focus away from expanding their art holdings.  The couple will be working more with charities and philanthropy.  Ms. Desai is also writing her 10th book, which is about America and the opportunities it offers to reinvent yourself. 

Thanks to David Quinn for the pointer.

History lesson

The Aztecs were soon dominating Central Mexico, and overawed others as they built and extended their empire.  While the capital city housed over 200,000, the valley and its surroundings held an addition million people.  Thousands of public buildings, canals, and causeways impressed everyone who came, including the Spanish. 

Here, or try Charles Mann’s 1491, one of my favorite books.  Try reading him on the selective breeding of corn, still one of mankind’s most impressive scientific feats.  Or:

The Maya, Inca, and Aztec empires [were] greatly advanced in the topics agriculture, writing, and engineering and astronomy.

You might think that some kind of dysgenic breeding has kicked in since, but a) there is zero evidence for that, and b) it is more plausible to cite a few negative supply shocks.  You know, like the pandemic that wiped out 90 percent of the Aztecs or more, their virtual enslavement by the Spanish, the move from trade-based cities to the isolated hacienda system, and the subsequent malnutrition and demoralization and cultural devastation, all of which amounted to perhaps the most extreme destruction of a civilization ever seen.

James Heckman, Nobel Laureate writes:

This paper develops a model of skill formation that explains a variety of findings established in the child development and child intervention literatures.  At its core is a technology that is stage-specific and that features self productivity, dynamic complementarity and skill multipliers.  Lessons are drawn for the design of new policies to alleviate the consequences of the accident of birth that is a major source of human inequality.

Try these papers too, plus previous MR posts on the Flynn Effect.  IQ is worth talking about, but compare Heckman’s models and data to much of the IQ literature — those models are not very well specified, nor given our current state of knowledge about either growth or IQ can they be — and you’ll see I do mean what I am saying. 

If you do wish to try a "genetic argument," there is much more evidence for the "predisposition to debilitating alcoholism" claim.  I’d estimate that half of the adult males of Oapan — the village I cite and direct descendants of the Aztec empire I might add — are debilitated alcoholics.

Please leave your comments on the already-active previous thread.

FDA Delay

Last year the Abigail Alliance won a stunning decision from the DC Circuit Court of Appeals that dying patients have
a due process right to access drugs once they have been through
FDA approved safety trials.  Here’s a sad update from Kerry Howley writing in the Aug/Sept. issue of Reason Magazine (not yet online):

After last year’s ruling in the alliance’s favor, the FDA argued that the group no longer had legal standing to sue it, since none of the patients who had signed the original affidavits were still members.  They were all dead.

See FDAReview.org for more on the FDA.