Results for “Larry Summers” 186 found
1. Chimpanzees enjoy horror movies, and they do not turn away or cover their eyes when watching.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; I’ve always been a fan.
4. Gary Becker’s last paper? (pdf), on intergenerational mobility.
5. Larry Summers leads economists’ statement on universal health coverage in Lancet.
The chief problem with our airports is not (pace Larry Summers) that they’re not as sleek and modern as the vast white elephants you’ll find in East Asia. Rather, it is that they are congested, and the reason they are congested is that the federal government doesn’t provide for market-rate pricing for take-off and landing slots. This straightforward reform would greatly increase the productivity, not to mention the pleasantness, of our aviation system. Yet it doesn’t involve spending billions of dollars and cutting ribbons, so politicians are by and large not interested.
That is from Reihan Salam.
4. Larry Summers on TPP makes perfect sense. I haven’t seen anything on the anti- side coming close to this level of analysis, and in a short column at that.
4. How standards of living have evolved over time, the real stuff.
Everyone is up in arms over the list supplied by The Economist. I won’t go through those debates. Let me just note that for all the talk of wonk this, data that, and Generalized Method of Moments this that and the other, every now and then the best algorithm is simply Asking Tyler Cowen. So here are, in no particular order, the most influential economists circa 2014:
1. Thomas Piketty
2. Paul Krugman
3. Joseph Stiglitz
4. Jeffrey Sachs
5. Amartya Sen
Basta. Of course Yellen and Draghi are extremely influential as central bankers, but in the way Paul Volcker was, so that is a different list, albeit a more important one.
I would add several comments:
a. Piketty does very very well for marginal impact in 2014, but probably would/will do less well over broader time spans, even if you think his work will hold up.
b. Krugman is a clear winner for the United States.
c. Stiglitz, Sachs, and Sen have most of their influence outside of the United States.
d. Larry Summers is influential among economists and the intelligentsia and is one possible choice for number six, with Dani Rodrik as another, or maybe drum up the leading Islamic theorist on sukuk. But Summers is not so influential with casual observers, which in some ways puts him as the opposite of Stiglitz (in his current incarnation).
e. There is no right-wing or center-right economist on the list. See the EJW symposium on why there is no Milton Friedman today. Krugman is probably the most politically conservative figure among the top five.
f. Behavioral economics as a whole is quite influential, but with no single dominant figure of influence. In actuality Cass Sunstein (not formally an economist) and Richard Thaler might globally be #1 in the behavioral area, followed by Daniel Kahneman.
2. What to expect when you give your first job talk (I’d like to see John Cleese make the same video).
6. Contrary to a behavioral econ claim about threshold earnings, taxi drivers in fact have positive elasticity of supply.
7. Elisa New (wife of Larry Summers) has a poetry MOOC from Harvard, Larry will appear to discuss economics and poetry with her.
This is from Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett:
…knowing the current growth rate only modestly improves the prediction of future growth rates over just guessing it will be the (future realized) world average. The R-squared of decade-ahead predictions of decade growth varies from 0.056 (for the most recent decade) to 0.13. Past growth is just not that informative about future growth and its predictive ability is generally lower over longer horizons.
The main point of this paper is to argue that Chinese growth rates will become much lower, perhaps in the near future, here is a summary of that point from Quartz:
Summer and Pritchett’s calculations, using global historical trends, suggest China will grow an average of only 3.9% a year for the next two decades. And though it’s certainly possible China will defy historical trends, they argue that looming changes to its authoritarian system increase the likelihood of an even sharper slowdown.
The piece, “Asiaphoria Meets Regression Toward the Mean,” is one of the best and most important economics papers I have seen all year. There is an ungated version here (pdf). I liked this sentence from the piece:
Table 5 shows that whether or not China and India will maintain their current growth or be subject to regression to the global mean growth rate is a $42 trillion dollar question.
And don’t forget this:
…nearly every country that experienced a large democratic transition after a period of above-average growth…experienced a sharp deceleration in growth in the 10 years following the democratizing transition.
As Arnold Kling would say, have a nice day.
1. Questions about devolution and Scottish independence, good treatment, more than just the usual.
5. How far are we from automated lip reading? What should you not say in front of a CCTV?
2. The chocolate teapot (there is no great stagnation).
3. Podcast of Ray Dalio and Larry Summers (I haven’t heard it yet myself).
4. The eleven funniest papers in the history of economics? How about that one that got published twice (identically) in the QJE?
5. Beware tall men.
6. Political diversity will improve social psychological science (pdf), coverage of that paper here.
2. The psychology of first impressions. Lots of examples at that link.
3. Is Ethiopia the next China? Or just the next Vietnam?
5. Sadly John Blundell has passed away. He was always a great encouragement to me and I am sorry to hear he is gone.