Results for “status”
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Sunday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. A YIMBY victory in Wellington, New Zealand.  And boarding houses are underrated.

2. Eric Lombardi on an abundance agenda for Canada.

3. Christopher Beam and Catarina Saraiva at Bloomberg cover EJMR.

4. Luis Garicano thoughts on the Levitt podcast with Hartley.

5. John Nye on the political economy of Dune.

6. Against a TikTok ban.

7. William Nordhaus on whether we are approaching a singularity.

8. Frans de Waal, RIP, and more here.

The Canadian economy is a worthwhile Canadian initiative

by  Tyler Cowen in

Contrary to some recent claims, the Canadian economy is not falling apart, and now I have a Bloomberg column on that point.  Excerpt:

A chorus of doomsayers is pointing out that by some measures, Canadian per-capita GDP is in decline.

While there is genuine room for concern, the bad news is much overstated. Canada has not altered its fundamental and longstanding position: It is somewhat poorer than the US, but it is progressing at a more or less typical pace.

First, a note on the numbers: Canadian GDP per capita has not regressed to where it was in 2014. That metric deflates incomes by producer prices, whereas for actual living standards economists generally agree that a consumer-prices deflator of some kind is more appropriate. Using that metric, Canadian per-capita GDP mostly has been rising since 2014, the pandemic aside, and currently stands modestly above pre-pandemic levels, albeit with a very recent downturn. Yes, Canadian performance could be better, but there’s no reason to be pressing the panic button.

It is also noteworthy that the Canadian economy, historically, does better when measured by median income trends, which have been steadily positive for almost two decades, including since 2014.

As for concerns:

It is a fair to wonder why the Canadian economy, in relative terms, seems to be slipping behind the US. As a general observation, this is true of most developed economies, and perhaps it says more about American virtues than Canadian defects.

More specifically, though, the nature of the tech economy may suggest this widening gap is inevitable, at least for a while. Canadian contributors to the technology scene are numerous, most of all in artificial intelligence. But with some exceptions, these developments have had the most impact in the US. Canada can certainly be proud of the contributions of the brilliant Canadian-Israeli computer scientist Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder of OpenAI, but of course that means he was not working in Canada.

Think of it as the economic equivalent of the US’s exorbitant privilege in monetary policy: The more other economies become technology-centered, the more likely they will help the major tech clusters in the US, which will continue to attract global talent. So it is possible that the US will increase its relative lead over Canada, and many other economies, no matter what Canada does. Perhaps some Canadians will feel bad about that growing gap, but to the extent their country benefits from those same tech innovations, it is good for most Canadians.

I am looking forward to my next Canada trip, when will that be?  I don’t think I will make it to the Candidates’ tourney, but I am picking Caruana to win.

Claims about compute

by  Tyler Cowen in

Hard for me to judge this one, but do not underestimate elasticity of supply.  And by the way, initial reports on Devin are very positive.

Tuesday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Over 2015-2021, the number of Chinese workers in Africa fell by 64 percent (note the link has too many pop-ups, click only if you have to).

2. Seasonal pollen boosts traffic fatalities.

3. Golden Mall reopens in Flushing, Queens (NYT).

4. Katja Grace and AI worries (New Yorker).  And a general update on the AI worries.

5. Henry Oliver on James Joyce.

6. A post-mortem on neoreaction.

7. The Alliance for the Future Manifesto, on AI, by Brian Chau.

Monday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Claude 3 on Bach’s Goldberg Variations.

2. How raw milk became a political issue.

3. “First, we don’t find that increasing corporate competition driven by M&A is important for workers either through concentrating the market for the products the workers produce, which would in theory increase worker wages, or through concentrating the labor market, which would in theory decrease their wages.”  Link here, Canadian.

4. Estimating a supply curve for carbon removal.

5. Facts about Vietnam trade.

6. That was then, this is now, Joe Biden edition.

How good a song is Quarter to Three?

by  Tyler Cowen in

You know, the 1961 #1 hit by Gary U.S. Bonds?  I’ve been thinking about this question for months.  I feel a good amount is at stake.  If songs such as Quarter to Three (or done live with dancers) are still great, our assessment of early times risesconsiderably.  But if they are dispensable throw-aways, the history of popular music (and film) in the earlier twentieth century needs to be rewritten.

What makes the song such a classic?  Claude praises “the upbeat rhythm, engaging call-and-response vocals, relatable lyrics, catchy melody, historical context, and instrumental breaks,” but none of those seem quite scarce or special enough to elevate the tune to classic status.  With a bit of prodding Claude also cited “raw, unpolished energy,” a genuine sense of fun, and “chemistry amongst the performers.”  To that you might add a creative use of repetition and small, stepwise changes, plenty of syncopation, and the hooks are iconic.  The use of echo and phase shifting looks to the future, and the shuffle-like groove drew on calypso influences and also ska.  Nonetheless the chord structure, while effective, is hardly revelatory.

So I’m still wondering — if a song has that ineffable “something” — how much is that the product of our collective imaginations?  How much is it real and objectively there?  Or does a Generation Z teen, with a very different ear, dismiss it as muddled and mediocre rather than memorable?  After all, Gary’s career was not replete with enduring creations.

A critic could allege the dance lyrics are ordinary and the production sloppy.  But was that all part of the calculation?  Wikipedia relates:

The single was recorded with very rough sound quality (compared to other records at the time). Producer Frank Guida has been quoted on subsequent CD reissues that his production sound was exactly what he wanted it to sound like.

Bob Roman wrote:

The song opens with muffled crowd noise and a bandleader counting off the beginning of a song. It’s not a live recording, but it sounds like one — and not even like a good one. It sounds like an amazing party happening down the street — wild, frenzied, mysterious, its sound obscured by what might as well be a couple of sets of walls. In any era, it’s crazy that a record this lo-fi managed to hit #1. In the pre-Beatles era where labels were pushing cleaned-up teenage dreamboats, it seems especially strange.

So we’ve got amazing hooks, controlled chaos, and extreme innovation?

The song also has a lineage.  Bill Wyman put it on one of his solo albums.  It inspired Dion’s “Runaround Sue.”  Bruce Springsteen played it regularly in his concerts, and later worked with Gary, writing songs for him and doing two albums together.  Most importantly, Paul McCartney references it in his Sgt. Pepper classic “When I’m Sixty-Four“:

If I’d been out ’til quarter to three, would you lock the door?

In essence Paul is teasing us with the notion that the 64-year-old McCartney might someday still be out there, dancing, rather than knitting tea cozies on the Isle of Wight.  And true to Straussian form, Paul released the dance song “Dance Tonight” when he was sixty-four, days before turning sixty-five.

In 1963, during a Beatles European tour, Gary U.S. Bonds was the headliner for them.

You will note that the lineage of the song runs mostly through white performers, though Gary U.S. Bonds was black (or possibly mixed race).  Perhaps one special feature of Quarter to Three is how it spans black and also white R&B, a rare feature at the time but hearkening back to the much earlier years of the blues, when black and white musical styles could be hard to distinguish.  In addition to the Caribbean vein, Gary could span Latino styles as well.

Just as we are finding it impossible to rebuild Notre Dame cathedral as it was, a mere sixty-three years later could any of us still make something akin to “Quarter to Three”?  Or have we lost those “technologies”?

I, for one, have decided to vote in favor of masterpiece status for Quarter to Three.  At least for now.  And by the way Gary U.S. Bonds is still on tour.

Sunday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. The suburban YIMBY movement (NYT).

2. Chess Fever, a Soviet silent movie.  27 minutes, Buster Keaton-style.

3. Angus Deaton makes a nationalist turn.

4. Is Silicon Valley pricing academics out of AI research?  (I hope so.)

5. List of names you cannot give your Icelandic daughter (sorry Abigail! Aisha eventually was approved, though).  For men, they have banned Fabio, but not Elmer.  I believe in laissez-faire for names, but if you are going to ban anything, surely Elmer is worth some consideration?

6. Are Florida voters tiring of the culture wars?

7. “Mr. Musk has not hired any staff for his foundation, tax filings show. Its billions are handled by a board that consists of himself and two volunteers, one of whom reports putting in so little time that it averages out to six minutes per week.” (NYT, quite possibly he is doing this well?)