If I believed in Austrian business cycle theory

by on January 19, 2005 at 6:39 am in Economics | Permalink

1. I would think that Asian central banks, by buying U.S. dollars, have been driving a massive distortion of real exchange and interest rates.

2. I would think that the U.S. economy is overinvested in non-export durables, most of all residential housing.

3. I would think that we have piled on far too much debt, in both the private and public sectors.

4. I would think these trends cannot possibly continue.  Asian central banks may come to their senses.  Furthermore the U.S. would be like an addict who needs an ever-increasing dose of the monetary fix.  This, of course, would eventually prove impossible.

5. I would think that the U.S. economy is due for a dollar plunge, and a massive sectoral shift toward exports.  Furthermore I would think it will not handle such an unexpected shock very well.

6. I would buy puts on T-Bond futures and become rich.

7. I would think that Hayek’s Monetary Nationalism and International Stability, now priced at $70 a copy, is the secret tract for our times.

Of course that is not me.  But at least someone appears to believe in Austrian business cycle theory.  By the way, here is one summary of the theory, although I do not agree with the characterization in all respects.

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