The “broken window fallacy” fallacy

by on September 9, 2005 at 4:15 am in Economics | Permalink

A loyal MR reader wrote to me, complaining about Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson.  In particular, he noted that attacking the broken window fallacy does not much damage Keynesian economics.  I agree:

1. The broken window fallacy consists of claiming that destructive acts (say storms, hurricanes, or terrorist attacks) will improve economic welfare by occasioning repair expenditures and putting people back to work.

2. Measured gdp may rise but true real income will not.  After all, something has been destroyed.  In theory the extra spending flow could offset wage and price stickiness to such a degree that employment rises and the economy comes out ahead.  But a) this is unlikely, and b) you could get the positive effects, if indeed they are there, without breaking anything.  Better monetary and fiscal policies (for me especially the former but perhaps not for Keynes; do also note that raising taxes stifles work and innovation, an indirect breaking of windows) would be called for.

3. Appreciation of #1 and #2 does not much damage Keynesian arguments.  Keynesian doctrine argues that, under the right circumstances, stronger aggregate demand will stimulate output.  It affirms 2b without needing to contradict 2a, as stated directly above.

I am not a Keynesian, but this is one reason why I’ve never been persuaded by Hazlitt’s critique of Keynes.  There is no a priori way to dispose of the possibility that a boost to nominal aggregate demand might increase employment; citing Say’s Law doesn’t do it either. 

Addendum: Alex points out that Keynes did, at least once, commit a version of the broken window fallacy.  Brad DeLong in turn criticizes Hazlitt. 

1 Tom September 9, 2005 at 11:26 am

“There is no a priori way to dispose of the possibility that a boost to nominal aggregate demand might increase employment†¦.†

Is that what Henry Hazzlitt is saying with the broken window fallacy? I never thought that at all.

The broken window fallacy is saying that money spent by the shopkeeper on the broken window WILL increase employment for the glassier who must now be employed to repair the window. What is forgotten is that the destructive act of the broken window will decrease employment for the tailor, whom the shopkeeper was going to spend the money on to make a new suit before the window was broken. So, no new employment was created; only a shifting of employment from the tailor, who will now not be employed making a suit, to the glassier who will be repairing the window. Society is worse off with the broken window, because instead having a window and a new suit, there will only be the new window.

2 sd September 9, 2005 at 2:06 pm

That is not Hazlitts criticism of Keynes at all.

I highly recommend Hazlitt’s (out-of-print but still avaialbale used) “The Failure of the New Economics: An Analysis of the Keynsian Fallacies”.

He refutes Keynes point by point

3 Gabriel Mihalache September 9, 2005 at 7:03 pm

If, for a reason or another, one needs to discredit Keynes, mentioning his quasi-mystical views on capital accumulation (of Millerianist inspiration) ought to be enough.

In any case, discussing Hazlit, regardless if you think he’s right or wrong, I think does a lot to raise the quality level of discussion for the basics of market mechanisms. Also, hearing from austrians and friends of austrians is always a good counterpart to excessive blackboard use 🙂

4 Russell Nelson September 11, 2005 at 6:33 pm

Michael: Yes it does. How can it not? Under what circumstances would the demand for work not be curtailed if the price of it goes up?

5 Michael Robinson September 13, 2005 at 1:29 am

“Yes it does. How can it not? Under what circumstances would the demand for work not be curtailed if the price of it goes up?”

Is it your belief that the government simply takes its tax revenue and flushes it down the toilet?

If not, my question to you is this: under what circumstances would the government be able to spend tax money without increasing the demand for work?

Taxes do not stifle work and innovation; bad management stifles work and innovation. The problem is not high taxes. The problem is bad management in the public sector relative to the private sector. Raising taxes stifles work and innovation only to the extent that public sector management is worse than private sector management.

Which has nothing to do with taxes, and everything to do with government accountability.

6 Tino September 13, 2005 at 9:36 am

“Taxes do not stifle work and innovation;”

Nonsens. Working invoulves tradeofffs. If I work I cannot enjoy leisure or work in the untaxed home-sector. If you take 40% of my wage when I work the tradeoff is distorted, I work less. Even the most fanatic statsit do not deny that the supply elastiticy or labour is posstive.

You seems to think I will work in order to give goverment money. But this is spent on 300 million people, my sahre of it is irrelevant. Even if goverment did not missalocate the money and gave it back to everyone as a lump sum check you would

Actually the only way taxes would not reduce the hours worked if the goverment didn’t give the money back in some way, but wasted it on useless things such as building pyramids, cathedrals or on envirementalism. In htis case it is theoretically possible that the income effect would dominate, so that you would work as much. However empirrically the pure income effect is small.

7 Michael Emmett Brady November 22, 2005 at 5:49 pm

It appears that Keynes’s main actual,theoretical result in the GT,based on his mathematical D-Z model, contained in chapters 3,20-21,and 19(appendix to chapter 19),is being completely overlooked in the discussion of Hazlitt’s “broken windows” metaphor.Keynes’s main technical result was spelled out for economists TWICE on pp.261-262 of the GT.A full employment equilibrium that is stable requires that the mpc(the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods)must equal 1 if the capital stock is at an optimal level.If this is not the case,then the necessary condition for optimal resource use becomes mpc+mpi=1(where mpi equals the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods).Keynes derives the following general optimality condition mathematically in chapter 20(pp.282-286)and chapter 21(p.306):w/p=mpl/(mpc+mpi).w is the money wage,p is the price level(the actual price equals the expected price), and mpl is the macroscopic marginal product of labor derived from an aggregated neoclassical production function(p.283;p.285;GT).Unfortunately,Keynes presents this result in the form of elasticities so that a reader of the GT could compare his results with the elasticity results derived by A C Pigou in 1933 in his The Theory of Unemployment(Part II,chapters 8-10,pp.86-102).Pigou’s major result,once his elasticities are simplified,is that full employment(only frictional and voluntary unemployment exist)requires that w/p=mpl.Both Keynes and Pigou worked with purely competitive theories of the firm-industry.The equation ,that Keynes pointed out in the appendix to chapter 19 of the GT was missing from Pigou’s model, is mpc+mpi=1.Pigou’s theory and model is a special case of Keynes’s general theory and model where the mpc+mpi=1.Full employment requires, as a necessary condition ,that mpc+mpi =1.If mpc+mpi<1,one obtains a set of stable multiple unemployment equilibria where the unemployment is involuntary.It will be impossible,FOR LABOR IN THE AGGREGATE,to cut its money wage in order to reduce involuntary unemployment.mpc+mpi=1 can be written in the following form-mpc+mpi=mpc+mps=1,where mps is the marginal propensity to save.This is a mathematical representation of the neoclassical loanable funds theory.The reason Keynes gave in the GT for mpc+mpi usually being less than 1 was the existence of decision making under conditions of ignorance and uncertainty(D.Ellsberg's ambiguity)at both the micro and macro levels.The mpi will be <=to the mps.What this result has to do with the irrelevant claims and musings of H.Hazlitt this reader can't see.

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