Here is another good exam question for my macro class:
Let’s do the calculations. Over the past 10 years, the U.S. has run up an accumulated goods and services trade deficit of roughly $3 trillion. Sounds like a lot of money, doesn’t it?
Now let’s suppose those dollars had been used for good rather than evil. That is, rather than buying imported cars, toys, and handbags, thrifty Americans would have saved their money. It’s reasonable to believe that about half of that $3 trillion would have gone into financing productive purchases here in the U.S.–new factories, power plants, office computers and the like–$1.5 trillion worth.
So what would be the payoff from all that thriftiness? A reasonable rate of return on investment, after depreciation, is roughly 7%. So $1.5 trillion in extra assets would have a return of about $100 billion a year.
That $100 billion is roughly 1% of an $11 trillion economy. Over ten years, then, complete elimination of the trade deficit might–might–have added a tenth of a percentage point to growth.
That’s a good measure of the size of the virtues of savings–roughly a tenth of a percentage point on growth. That’s 0.1 percentage points.
To put that in perspective, the estimates of long-term productivity growth have risen roughly a full percentage point over the past decade. The effects of technology more than swamp the effects of savings.
That’s Michael Mandel, from Business Week. True, false, or uncertain? Dig in, comments are open, and you don’t have to be in my class to offer an opinion.
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A $1.5 trillion inflow in the U.S. capital markets would drive prices of assets sky-high. P/Es of the U.S. companies would fluctuate in the orders of hundreds, such as by the end of the 1980′s in Japan. Similarly, banks overflowing with cash would lend to anybody at ridiculously low rates. You may guess what would most likely follow then.
False. The verb should be put in the past tense … “DID swamp”. Continued productivity gains with relatively low investment rates *could* continue, but this isn’t guaranteed, and as a previous commentator notes, could be endogenous.
There is no “good” or “evil” with regard to spending decisions; we can only evaluate the consequences of those decisions. Here, saving $3 trillion delays consumption. In the meantime that money earns an investment return that Mandel calls inconsequential. Low saving rates suggest that this view is likely shared by a large number of consumers in this country.
On a technical but important point, the tenth of a percent higher growth he discusses is off a higher GDP base since the current account deficit is presumably much smaller, with half of the money spent on imports redirected to domestic consumption and the other half to domestic investment.
As an aside, if technological improvements also result in superior products, then the cost of the foregone future consumption is much higher than indicated. Alternatively, if people were driven to reduce imports by an external requirement, welfare may be reduced; by revealed preference, the imports are preferred by consumers. I really dislike normative judgments based upon macro accounting changes. Without knowing the underlying cause for the change in behavior, evaluating the welfare consequences are problematic. The level of GDP *may* be a good proxy for the level welfare, but I see no reason to assume that changes in GDP accurately mirror changes in welfare in hypotheticals like this one.
Oh well, I’m not a macro guy. But these macro questions you ask make me jealous; your students are lucky (or perhaps they chose wisely). If I had had your class, maybe my answer would be better.
False. They’re talking about -saving- money, not hiding it in your mattresses. ‘Saved’ money gets spent on goods and services, just not by the people who save it.
It could be that the average return to investment in technology is large, but the marginal return to investment in technology is small. For instance, the major returns could be from making straightforward advances on the current state of the art. As resources going to investment increase, there could be fewer and fewer viable points in current technology to advance from.
This is total crap. To begin with, students in my Principles class know the difference between
“deficit” and “debt” — budget or trade. So, “running up a deficit” is a misnomer and therefore makes the rest of the argument at best a strain on logic.
Even ignoring this bit, what’s the last sentence all about? So savings do matter theoretically, but not ruantitatively when compared to the effect of technology? What’s the overall point then?
The problem is misstated. What we are doing is substituting foreign
savings for domestic savings. The current account deficit is equal to
the domestic savings investment gap. So his assumption that we save half of
the difference has no basis in fact. The reason we have a trade deficit is that
we need the foreign savings to finance our level of consumption and/or investments.
To the extent that we use the foreign capital to finance consumption we are
selling our assets to finance consumption — at some point it will have to be repaid.
If, as in the 1990s we were using it to finance capital spending we are creating capital that will make us better off and allow the foreign capital to be repaid.
The inflow of foreign capital is now equivalent to about one-third of gross private investments. During the 1990s boom the sum of foreign capial inflows and the government surplus was equivalent to almost half of capital spending. So the contribution of the foreign savings is massively greater then the numbers he uses to reach his conclusions.
The comment that we have been substituting foreign savings for domestic is accurate. This has been part of Ben Bernanke’s gripe, that global savings is excessive, and that is why we have run such large current account deficits. Here we are propping up the rest of the world’s economy with our low savings!
The real mystery in all this is why the now more than $3 trillion net indebtedness of the US as a nation has not yet shown up in the investment income flows portion of the US balance of payments. It is only mildly negative. Is this a matter of foreigners being suckers to buy our bonds at such low interest rates while our investors abroad demand high returns? Is it that we are such a safe haven that they are willing to forego such returns? Is it that some central banks are now buying our bonds to keep the dollar high so that they can sell us stuff to keep their unemployment down (China in particular)?
It is pretty amazing that foreigners now own 53% of the US national debt, but the net outflow of income remains so low. At some point that continuing accumulation of net indebtedness is going to tilt the scale on the investment income portion of the account. Then the dollar will really fall into difficulty, and things will become very far from amusing all the way around. Hey, those foreigners do not want this particular game to stop any more than our voracious consumers do!
Mandel’s analysis is worse than Krugman’s. Aside from the many good points already made, he is taking a cumulative number and using it at t=0. Our current trade imbalance for August is 60B and 460B for the year. Ten years ago it was 100B for the whole year. You can’t take the full 3T and roll it back ten years; you could only use the 1994 imbalance for 1994.
Another Krugman is that he is taking the consumer part of the imbalance and ignoring the producer part. In other words, he believes that consumers who buy imported cars, toys and handbags are the sole cause of the imbalance. I guess he forgot about those insignificant companies like Wal-Mart who is China’s 6th largest trading partner.
Another Krugman is that for some reason if we stop all consumers and producers from using the rest of the planet that somehow we will still be and 11T economy. I guess in his world, prices would not rise and if they did, it would not matter because all prices are inelastic.
Another Krugman is his attempt to bring in a final point that has nothing to do with his analysis. Up until his last two sentences, he had only talked about savings and growth and used numbers (although dubious) to flesh out his points. Then he throws us productivity and technology out of the blue without anything to back up his claim.
Fact – it has rained a lot this summer
Analysis – more rain is better than less rain as long as there is not flooding
Mendel Conclusion – the Colorado Rockies should play in the rain so they can win more games.
Patinator,
Good lord. Do you really need to drag in false allegations about Krugman to score your points? I have lots of disagreements with Krugman, but I do not think he said or would agree with most of the things that you attribute to him. Can you back this stuff up?
It is not the accumulation of the trade deficits that gives us the net indebtedness but the accumulation of the current account deficits. Until quite recently the US current account was performing better than the trade account thanks to our receiving net inflows of capital income. That is now turning around.
Walmart is not a producer but a distributor of produced goods. It is the main conduit through which consumer imports from China are distributed in the US. No doubt Walmart does import a few producer goods, but they are a small part of its business.
Krugman is strongly for free trade. He is one of the last people around who would argue that the economy would not decline if the rest of the world’s economy shut down. This is the worst sort of rank ignorance or smarmy misrepresentation on your part.
Krugman does worry about technology and growth and deserves credit for being among the first to notice that the rapid East Asian growth in the 80s and early 90s was fragile due to not being as firmly based on productivity improvements as many thought, thus providing analytical understanding for part of what happened in the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. I am not aware that Krugman engages in bringing up important arguments at the last minute (or paragraph) as a general practice.
I can only presume that you have only been reading Krugman’s columns in the New York Times rather than any of his serious writings in economics. If you want to ding Krugman for his politics, go right ahead. If you want to ding him for his economic analysis, well, it would help if you knew what you were talking about.
Pop quiz: Did Tyler just come up with an ingenius way to test the economic training of typical MR readers?
“A reasonable rate of return on investment, after depreciation, is roughly 7%.” Is that so? If it were reasonable to expect a REAL return of 7% (nominal doesn’t make sense in this context), then I expect we’d see a lot more saving in the US. Save for ten years and double your money, in real terms. As far as I know, few people have that privilege. Besides, what does “reasonable” mean in this context? If it describes some average degree of risk aversion/planning horizon, then 7% really sounds a bit hefty. Note that this is not a minor detail: it’s what defines the payoff to thriftiness (essentially, the opportunity cost of not deferring consumption) in his analysis.
Just one small point:
“A reasonable rate of return on investment, after depreciation, is roughly 7%.”
Is this a pre-tax or post-tax rate, or doesn’t Mandel care?
Barkley,
I did not mean to imply that Krugman argued what I was saying. He is widely recognized as having done a lot of fine work in free trade, so fair point. It certainly would be wrong for me to put words in his mouth like that. I was refering to his work at the Times in which mistakes are retracted or just left in hoping that no one will notice. This piece was generally Krugmanesque in relation to his articles in the Times not his work on free trade. I used Krugman the same way you would use “got Borked”.
I hope you agree that you cannot use the cumulative number at t=0.
Trying my hand at this.
Going back to basics, GDP can be increased through an increase in labour, capital investment or productivity. First, unless there’s a baby boom, we take labour out of the equation. Secondly, given that there are only so many people around, an increase in capital investment as a result of having more money (and not spending it) only produces a reduced amount of returns. The only real way to increase GDP in a developed economy is to increase productivity either through training or technology.
This brings me to my point about the accuracy of this argument. I guess the logic is reasonable, albeit in a slightly misdirected manner. I see the issue as being more about the numbers and what they actually contribute. Perhaps if the argument was made that the spending was directed towards increasing productivity, e.g. instead of shopping, greater resources should be devoted towards training, I would have been more inclined to agree. In which case, if savings (& investment) were directed more towards increasing productivity, it actually helps improve GDP growth via the same means rather than as an alternative.
P.S. Sorry if this doesn’t make sense. I blame wireless connectivity in my macroecons lectures.
One day I walk into a bar and there I meet Mr. Wang who offers to lend me US$1.5tn for ten years at an annual interest rate of 4%.
I take the money and immediately stuff that Mr Wang makes…
One day I walk into a bar and there I meet Mr. Wang who offers to lend me US$1.5tn for ten years at an annual interest rate of 4%.
This is obviously too good to be true, I smell a scam and walk away.
Quick guess/question. 100 billion is 1% of 10 trillion? That small 1% over 30 years 1.01 ^ 30 = 34.8% better off in 30 years? Which is a point Tyler seems to make a lot?
The whole idea of budget deficits and deficits in general has no meaningful economic significance. Today’s world economy is going towards a boundless society were political boundaries don’t even matter. In general the goal is higher growth in the form of an increase in the GDP per capita. It seems that institutions such as property rights, sound banking system, mobile political system, individual rights and responsibility, etc… are the most important elements of a sound growth. And saving, investment, and other economic behavior are only affective when they are conducted in an environment with established institutions such as the ones mentioned above.
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