How good is the Nordic model?

by on October 26, 2006 at 5:54 am in Economics | Permalink

Jeffrey Sachs has written a new paper on the Nordic model, extending his Scientific American article in praise of the welfare state.  It is listed as "not for quotation" so I won’t.  I agree with much of the paper, but I would emphasize a few propositions more:

1. Many ideas and innovations are international public goods.  This will make the Nordic model more sustainable over time.  Swedish society doesn’t have to be that innovative, although of course sometimes it is.

2. Societies differ a great deal in their innate level of cooperativeness.  This is a key to making the Nordic model work.  I wouldn’t try the Swedish model in France, much less in the United States.

3. The Nordic countries generally take a light hand in regulation, capital income taxation, and many of the public welfare programs pay people to work and not to sit at home on their behinds.  In fairness to Sachs, he does mention these points.  Furthermore given the extensive subsidies to child care, which encourage female labor force
participation, the high marginal tax rates do not discourage labor supply as we might at first think.

4. Government policy is often most usefully thought of as endogenous.  Higher levels of cooperativeness, and lower levels of corruption, mean that people will choose more government.  The government they get will work better than government works elsewhere.  The point is not that all choices are efficient, but rather there is a selection bias in the data we observe on government size and performance.  Nordic welfare states are large, in part, because they work relatively well.

5. The long-term consequences of a slightly lower growth rate are in any case troubling, no matter how well a society works at any moment in time.

Here is my previous post on the Nordic model.  Here is a post on Swedish stagnation.  Excerpt: "I’ve been to Stockholm several times and loved it.  That being said, how
attractive will this model remain when it offers only half of the per
capita income of the United States?"

29 comments

aaron October 26, 2006 at 9:06 am

Ever increasing productivity suggests to me that we will eventually need to move toward a welfare state.

Even now, I see most of my co-workers as deadweight. Most jobs probably exist due to labor laws preventing discrimination.

If you link about it, most white collar jobs are simply management of the redistirbution of income (sales, regulations, and finance).

Peter Schaeffer October 26, 2006 at 9:44 am

Mr. Cowen,

Back in 2004, you wrote “I’m willing to take the Swedish model seriously. I’ve been to Stockholm several times and loved it†. What exactly did you love about it? What made Sweden attractive?

chris October 26, 2006 at 10:10 am

Are high marginal tax rates defendable as long as tax dollars are used on things such as day care programs? To balance out one’s view of the “success” of the Swedish model, one must consider the Howard Center’s Allan C. Carlson’s writings on the topic. This paper is a good summary, but much more can be found on the web.

Xmas October 26, 2006 at 11:11 am

Another question would be, does the Nordic taxation system tax
“households” or just individuals.

If they are trying to encourage both marriage partners to work, a high marginal tax rate would hurt dual income “households”.

Wild Pegasus October 26, 2006 at 11:14 am

Can the Swedish model really be said to work when the birth rate is 1.75? What happens when you have a tenth of the population working to support the other 90%?

- Josh

Mark Amerman October 26, 2006 at 11:54 am

Chris,

That’s a fascinating essay you cite. I hadn’t thought of what the article
explores but once pointed out it’s seems obvious. I don’t know whether the
solution Allan C. Carlson advocates is practical.

If there’s any hope for his path there has to be a radical shift in
attitudes towards the desireability of teenage labor. I do clearly remember,
as I teenager, resenting the more-or-less mandatory uselessness of teenage
life. The opportunities to constructively engage with and be part of
something meaningful in the adult world, or to do very interesting things,
were very limited.

I don’t think most people want to become like the Amish. The question is
how to raise modern, technically sophisticated children whose education
and lives spin around their families and the formation of new families
instead of the state.

Maybe a more open and competitive educational system would help a lot. Say for
example we separated teaching from the evaluation of course material so
that instead of degrees being awarded from a college the degree would mean
a nationally standardized proficiency in a certain set of subjects. That in
turn lead to a far more productive and efficient, and probably cheaper,
educational system characterized by a greater diversity of practical pathways.

Which would in turn open up other possibilities including family-centric
as opposed to state-centric lives.

Michael Blowhard October 26, 2006 at 12:17 pm

You make a point I think is often underdone: that whawt worksfor one culture might not work for another. By comparison to us, the Scandinavian countries are very small, and relatively homoegeneous Their history is different. Is there any reason to think that what works there should work for us? I mean, maybe there are ideas and notions we can steal and learn from that’d work well with our givens. But we should be a little wary of simply running and doing likewise, no?

You write: “how attractive will this model remain when it offers only half of the per capita income of the United States?”

I dunno. But, assuming incomes generally keep rising and Scandinavians aren’t too crippled by envy, maybe it’ll work fine. After all, they’ll be experiencing growth and will be better off than they are now. Given that they’re already fairly rich, that ain’t so bad, right?

happyjuggler0 October 26, 2006 at 1:36 pm

Ok, I’ll say it. Sachs has done a horrible job picking his countries. He is making an apples to oranges comparison, and so far no one is calling him on it.

First off, to not acknowledge that Norway is an extreme case that rightfully ought to be left off of any comparison is just plain wrong. Norway has a huge amount of oil and gas wealth per capita, and is also socking away a lot of money for the day when their oil will run out, and it is running out. The notion that this huge amount of per capita GDP is somehow due to the high tax model is absurd. Same goes for their surplusses, plus the ability to sustainably fund lots of social programs.

Second, comparing small population sies with large population sizes is wrought with conflicts, and ought not be done if there is a reasonable alternative. I’d hope it would be obvious that a small country (population-wise) has huge advantages over large countries when it comes to improving per capita GDP. If Sachs wants to compare small countries instead of the bizarre English speaking sample he picked, then that would make more sense. I nominate Sweden, Denmark, and Finland vs Ireland, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Another comparison that makes more sense than Sachs’ is large population countries. I nominate the US, UK, and Australia vs France, Germany and Italy.

Sachs is correct, the evidence is in and it points in the exact opposite direction he wishes it pointed in.

Mark Amerman October 26, 2006 at 1:44 pm

According to the “CIA World Factbook,” the combined population Sweden,
Denmark, Finland, and Norway is 24 million. The combined population
of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Ireland and
New Zealand is 420 million.

Sweden comprises 38% of the scandanavian population; the United
States 71% of the anglo-american.

So simplifying my calculations and skipping the other countries
to do a quick verification:

Sweden has a purchasing-power parity of $268 billion; the U.S.
$12,360 billion. Sweden has a working age population of 5.9 million;
the U.S. 200.5 million. Thus purchasing-power parity per working-age
swede is $45,400 versus $61,645 for the american.

Yet Mr. Sachs table shows $50,700 for the scandanavians versus $48,500
for the anglo-americans.

I’m not calculating exactly the same thing but still it seems they
should be in the same ballpark. What’s going on?

Mark Amerman October 26, 2006 at 2:08 pm

The combined population of Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota,
and South Dakota is about 12 million. Scandanavia minus Norway,
which should be excluded for the reasons given above, is
about 19 million. Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and
South Dakota have a high percentage of people with scandanavian
ancestry. They are also more culturally homogeneous than
most of the United States.

Have minimized the variables about as much as is practical,
it seems like this would be a good point of comparison.

Shakespeare's Fool October 26, 2006 at 3:10 pm

aaron at Oct 26, 2006 9:06:05 AM
suggests that rising productivity will
lead to fewer jobs. But rising
productivity has been associated with
rising numbers of jobs — indeed with
rising labor force participations rates,
that is more jobs per person of
working age.

Aaron_M October 26, 2006 at 4:42 pm

Tyler,

“Societies differ a great deal in their innate level of cooperativeness†

Do you mean that the rate at which the cooperation gene is expressed in a country’s population varies significantly between countries?

Steve Sailer October 26, 2006 at 5:35 pm

The most similar American state to Scandinavia is Minnesota. Minnesota’s neighbors, Wisconsin and Iowa, with their large German populations, also have some Social Democrat tendencies. All three are pretty decent places to live for the majority (if you can take the weather), but something worth noting is that their black communities are among the most dysfunctional in America:

Minnesota has the highest black to white imprisonment ratio at 31 to 1 in 1997.

Iowa has the highest absolute black imprisonment rate at 4.8% of the whole black population (1997).

Wisconsin has the highest black illegitimacy rate at 82% in 2004.

This suggests that the Nordic model works better for more Nordic sort of people and worse for less Nordic people.

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2006/10/nice-north-centrals-not-so-nice-black.html

joan October 26, 2006 at 7:40 pm

With all the posts about states and country gdp per capita or rather gsp per capita, you might want to look at this table with real numbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP_per_capita_(nominal)

US October 26, 2006 at 8:20 pm

Schaeffer:

A Danish organization: The Rockwool-foundation’s research-unit, has looked at a lot of the issues about immigration, and they have also economic analyses of this issue:
http://www.rff.dk/

As far as I know they have not published very much in English, so I guess the link is not that valuable. However, I remember reading a few years ago an economic impact study from the foundation by the Swedish economist Eskil Wadensjö claiming that the net effects from immigration was negative. The study was released some years ago, in 2000, and is to be found in the Danish-written not-translated book “Integration i Danmark omkring Ã¥rtusindskiftet” written by Gunnar Viby Mogensen and Poul Chr. Matthiessen.

Another book released in 2001 might be a good place to start for English readers though: “The integration of non-Western immigrants in a Scandinavian labour market: The Danish experience”
http://www.rff.dk/da/publikationer/boeger/2001/
(I have unfortunately not read the book myself, but as Wadensjö is co-auther I would assume that this analysis would not differ much from the one in the Danish book from the year before).

Both books were published before restrictions on immigration was passed by the new government in 2001. I analyzed the survey conducted by Wadensjö in 2000 in a political science project in high school a few years back and thus still have the analysis on my computer. His analysis shoved that the net contribution (to the government – not GDP) were basically found to be positive for immigrants from Scandinavia and “other Western Countries” and were found to be negative for “3.rd world immigrants”. The figures back then, about the year 2000, was a negative contribution to the government amounting to appr. 63.000 kroners pr. year (11-12.000$) from 1.generation non-western immigrants from 18-65 years old, and the figure was 24.000 kroners (4.5-5000$) for the 2.generation of this group (same age, and a much smaller sample) – there was thus also a very clear convergence taking place. Labor market participation was also discussed and the results here were that a relatively high fraction of the negative net-effects were caused by very low female labor market participation from the immigrants from 3.rd world countries – especially from Muslim countries such as Somalia.

It is not reasonable to claim that these numbers have not changed during the period, as the Danish immigration policy has been reformed in many ways. However, the study might be applicable as a rough estimate of the Swedish experience, as their immigration policy – as well as a lot of other cultural, political and economic factors – today are comparable to the Danish around 2000.

Mark Amerman October 26, 2006 at 9:52 pm

Peter Schaeffer,

Thanks for digging up that information on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, and North Dakota.

I found this site:

http://www.demographia.com/db-intlppp-region.htm

which has 1999 data comparing U.S. states with various european regions.

Comparisons of estimated 1999 purchasing-power parity per person

region ppp/p pop. in millions
—— —– —————-
Minnesota ——————– $34,175 4.7
Norway ———————– $33,174 4.4
Finland, Uusimaa (Suuralue) — $30,165 1.4
Wisconsin ——————– $30,112 5.2
Sweden, Stockholm ———— $29,027 1.8
Iowa ————————- $28,853 2.9
South Dakota —————– $28,139 0.7
North Dakota —————– $26,522 0.6
Finland, Aland ————— $26,047 0.0
Denmark ———————- $25,347 5.3
Sweden, Smaland Med Oarna —- $21,426 0.8
Sweden, Ovre Norrland ——– $20,937
Sweden, Mellersta Norrland — $20,847
Sweden, Norra Mellansverige — $20,416
Sweden, Ostra Mellansverige — $19,868
Finland, Etelae-Suomi ——– $19,836
Sweden, Sydsverige ———– $19,569
Sweden, Vastsverige ———- $19,294
Finland, Pohjois-Suomi ——- $18,624
Finland, Vaeli-Suomi ——— $17,820
Finland, Itae-Suomi ———- $16,025

The information about Sweden and Finland gets too detailed, but
the basic pattern is clear. Norway and Denmark are comparable to
this group of american states, while Sweden and Finland (with the
exception of their capital city regions) are definitely a notch below.

As I said before I don’t think reveals much to include Norway
because of their special situation with respect to gas and oil.

To improve this data it should be brought up to date and adjusted
for the percentage of the population of working age.

Also in addition to the absolute estimates of real income it might
be even more revealing to look at the trends through time. That
is whose situation is improving or detiorating and how rapidly.

Sandy P October 27, 2006 at 2:11 am

Take away their oil, would it work?

spencer October 27, 2006 at 9:55 am

Peter — I did not look at what Steve Sailor has done.
But you can go to bea.gov and get real gdp data per state
and from census get the population data to calculate
real per capita gdp. Note I am saying real not nominal
so it is adjusted for price differences.

If you do this you find that in 2005 real per capita gdp in
California was 109.4% of the national average and in mississippi
it was 63% of the national average. this calculation has Hawaii
at 98.5% of the national average.

Peter Schaeffer October 27, 2006 at 1:36 pm

Spencer,

Sorry about the URL omission.

Check the explanatory notes over at http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/GSPNewsRelease.htm

“Real GDP by state is an inflation-adjusted measure based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that state”

Interestingly enough, the US government does not provide state or local COLI (Cost Of Living Index) data that are comparable across states or localities. The BLS web site even says so. Check out http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_18

“No, an individual area index measures how much prices have changed over a specific period in that particular area; it does not show whether prices or living costs are higher or lower in that area relative to another.”

Steve Sailer used private sector data to produce his table.

This makes sense if you actually live or work in California. California isn’t rich anymore. Poor people are moving into garages and are eager to do so. High income professionals live in houses that would be laughed at in other parts of the US. Given high nominal incomes, at least tradable goods are cheap in California. Hawaii combines pricey housing with lower incomes. Not a pretty picture if you have to work for a living.

Peter Schaeffer October 27, 2006 at 9:20 pm

All,

It is important to note that Minnesota turns in its education numbers with spending at the national average (less than 1% higher). By contrast, NY and NJ spends far more and achieve far less. District of Columbia is almost at the top in spending and remarkably worse than any other state in performance.

All of the spending numbers are NOT COLI adjusted. This would make a big difference for NJ, NY, and DOC, but less for MN.

Peter Schaeffer October 28, 2006 at 12:27 am

All,

I found some state level COLI numbers. CA is 134.7 and HA is 161.3 (ouch). NJ is 131.7 and NY is 130.4. By contrast, MN is 97.1. This raises MN per-student outlays a bit versus the national average and reduces those of NY and NJ quite a bit. However, NY and NJ are still spending considerably more than MN and yielding quite a bit less.

Given that California’s nominal per-capita income is only 7% greater than the national average in nominal terms, CA is actually quite poor (21% below the national average) . A funny note (from Steve Sailer). KS is about 8.5% below the national average in nominal per-capita GSP. However, it is 9.4% below average in the cost of living.

Thomas Frank famously wrote a book “What is wrong with Kansas?”. Apparently, nothing is wrong with Kansas (This observation is also from Steve Sailer). He should have asked “What is wrong with California?” However, that wouldn’t have yielded convenient PC answers. The “I† word might have been mentioned. Anyone who wishes to defend immigration needs to explain why America’s leading immigration state is so poor.

Hans Hansen January 6, 2007 at 12:23 am

Barkley Rosser

As a Dane and therefore also Scandinavian I must correct your earlier classification of Scandinavia and Nordic.

Scandinavia: Denmark, Norway and Sweden (Scandinavian peninsula Norway and Sweden).
Nordic: Denmark, Finland, Faeroe Islands (Denmark), Island, Norway and Sweden.

Greenland can sometimes be considered Nordic do to it being a part of The Kingdom of Denmark but is otherwise considered North Atlantic (along with Faeroe Island and Island) or North American do to being a part of that continent.

Sorry :o ) (forgive me)

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sent August 16, 2007 at 7:51 pm

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悬臂货架
立体库货架
滚轮货架
搁楼货架
货架
重型货架
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巢湖货架
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江西货架
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江门货架
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广东货架
苏州货架
杨州货架
无锡货架
张家港货架
张家港货架厂
山东货架
沈阳货架
辽宁货架
江苏货架
广州货架
登高车
手推车
堆垛架
仓储笼
木托盘
钢托盘
压入式货架
重型货架
塑木托盘
塑料托盘
货架
仓储货架
货架公司
货架厂
库房货架
货架设计
轻型货架
角钢货架
中型货架
中量型货架
重型货架
重量型货架
托盘货架
贯通货架
通廊式货架
阁楼货架
悬臂式货架
模具货架
抽屉货架
辊轮式货架
移动式货架
网片
护栏
隔离网
工具柜
安全工具柜
工具车
移动工具车
置物柜
整理架
挂板架
工作台
线棒货架
输送轨道
输送轨道机
输送带
不锈钢制品
仓储笼
折叠式仓储笼
可堆周转箱
钢托盘
托盘
钢制托盘
网格料箱
料箱
钢料箱
钢制料箱
物流台车
载物台车
堆垛货架
巧固架
货架
货架
货架
固定小推车
手推车
双层静音推车
铁板手推车
手动液压平台车
提升机
单叉手动液压平台车
双叉手动液压平台车
多层框架车
登高车H1000
塑料托盘
登高车H1400
铁屑车
南京货架
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轻型货架
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重型货架
重型货架
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悬臂货架
贯通货架
贯通货架
贯通货架
模具货架
模具货架
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托盘
托盘
托盘
钢托盘
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塑料托盘
塑料托盘
塑料托盘
仓储笼
仓储笼
仓储笼
仓储笼
手推车
手推车
手推车
库房货架
库房货架
库房货架
货架设计
货架设计
货架设计
浙江货架
浙江货架
浙江货架
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杭州货架
杭州货架
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宁波货架
宁波货架
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温州货架
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嘉兴货架
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湖州货架
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金华货架
金华货架
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轻型货架
货架
角钢货架
中型货架
重型货架
货架
工业货架
密集货架
立体库货架
汽车4S店货架
移动式货架
滚轮式货架
货架
苏州货架
杭州货架
杨州货架
无锡货架
张家港货架
山东货架
沈阳货架
辽宁货架
江苏货架
广州货架
广东货架
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东莞货架
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江西货架
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郑州货架
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济南货架
部队货架
托盘
钢托盘
塑料托盘
木托盘
铁托盘
塑木托盘
仓储笼
仓储笼制造
折叠式仓储笼
巧固架
堆垛架
手推车
静音手推车
铁板手推车
不锈钢手推车
登高车
登高车
整理架
挂板架
置物架
置物架
钢料箱
物流台车
载物台车
物流台车
物流台车
料箱
钢制料箱
角钢货架
中Ｂ货架
中Ａ货架
货架
工业货架
仓库货架
仓储货架
密集架
立体库货架
汽车货架
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滚轮货架
贯通货架
搁楼货架
模具货架
悬臂货架
货架厂
货架
重型货架
轻型货架
移动式货架
汽车4S店货架
立体库货架
密集货架
货架
仓储货架
仓库货架
工业货架
货架厂
中型货架
中型货架
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成都货架
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江苏货架
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金湖货架
太仓货架
吴江货架
泰兴货架
常熟货架
淮安货架
江阴货架
宜兴货架
昆山货架
南通货架
扬州货架
盐城货架
淮阴货架
连云港货架
镇江货架
常州货架
徐州货架
无锡货架
苏州货架
南京货架
南京货架
角钢货架
轻型货架
中型货架
重型货架
工业货架
物流台车
工作台
托盘搬运车
手动液压托盘搬运车
货架
北京货架
货架
货架
广州货架
北京货架厂
货架厂
上海货架
深圳货架
苏州货架
无锡货架
货架公司
库房货架
北京仓储货架
苏州货架
货架公司
天津货架
宁波货架
货架网
青岛货架
中国货架网
山东货架
厦门货架
大昌货架
仓库货架
中型货架
广州货架厂
东莞货架
东莞货架
货架寿命
模具货架
求购货架
济南货架
轻型货架
角钢货架
大连货架
大连货架
重型货架
杰达货架
哈尔滨货架
北京超市货架
图书货架
货架价格
货架价格
托盘货架
石家庄货架
北京超市货架
货架价格
托盘货架
石家庄货架
货架配件
北京仓储货架厂
重庆货架
阁楼货架
兴达货架
六维货架
仓储货架公司
立体货架
金属货架
安徽货架
水晶货架
长春货架
辉煌货架
深圳货架厂
重力式货架
佛山货架厂
爱维斯货架
货架子
货架子
富源货架
货架图
移动货架
货架类型
杭州货架
货架制造
托盘
塑料托盘
木托盘
铁托盘
塑木托盘
仓储笼
仓储笼制造
折叠式仓储笼
巧固架
堆垛架
手推车
铁板手推车
不锈钢手推车
登高车
挂板架
置物架
置物架
置物架
料箱
钢制料箱
料箱

sent August 16, 2007 at 8:06 pm

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天津货架
网片
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仓储笼
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工作台
吉林储物柜
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徐州储物柜制造
苏州储物柜
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储物柜（重量型）
储物柜制造
储物柜
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货架
手推车
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中型货架
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托盘
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货架公司
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货架厂
苏州货架
天津货架
东莞货架
北京仓储货架
模具货架
重型货架
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辽宁货架公司
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台州货架
嘉兴货架
宁波货架生产
浙江货架
吴江货架
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立体货架
广东货架
杭州货架
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轻型货架
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广州货架厂
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济南货架
货架设计
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重型货架
货架公司
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东莞货架
网片
江苏网片
徐州网片
连云港网片
扬州网片
宜兴网片
泰兴网片
靖江网片
杭州网片
绍兴网片
湖州网片
金华网片
义乌网片
永康网片
安徽网片
山东网片
四川网片
江西网片
巢湖网片
辽宁网片制造
网片厂
隔离网
徐州隔离网片
连云港隔离网片
扬州隔离网片
张家港隔离网片
常熟隔离网片
滨海隔离网片
浙江隔离网片
宁波隔离网片
嘉兴隔离网片
上海网片
天津网片
丽水隔离网片
滨海隔离网片
常熟隔离网片
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扬州隔离网片
连云港隔离网片
徐州隔离网片
隔离网
钢托盘
塑料托盘
木托盘
不锈钢手推车
铁板手推车
手推车
堆垛架
巧固架
折叠式仓储笼
仓储笼制造
仓储笼
塑木托盘
载物台车
物流台车
料箱
钢制料箱
钢料箱
置物架
挂板架
登高车
登高车
物流台车
载物台车
物流台车制造
料箱
钢制料箱
钢料箱
料箱生产
置物架
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sent August 16, 2007 at 8:17 pm

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32rrfrtg October 8, 2007 at 2:10 am

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不動産投資 July 11, 2008 at 11:55 pm

資金を増やそうとするのに不動産投資をするのが手っ取り早い。日本で不動産で東京 賃貸をさがすのはきわめて難しくシステム開発は日本の会社が良い。

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