Sandy P,

If you think the only evidence for climate change is based on the current tempreature in the Midwest you have gone past being skeptical.

The obviously correct answer is to take only one box. Don’t be greedy, and who knows what kind of other delusions you are laboring under?

On the symmetry argument for the simple prisoner’s dilemma, I think it depends on how you specify the problem. If you specify the problem as the two players being identical and that they having knowledge of that, then they will be able to deduce that mixed choices will never occur and cooperate. But if you do not require the players to be identical, but merely to both have the same utility functions and information and to proceed rationally, then the symmetry argument doesn’t hold up. Ironically, the way Brad specifies the problem does include grounds for assuming symmetry although I think he’s right that dominance should be considered the governing principle when thinking about this practically.

Back to Newcomb’s problem, I don’t see any other argument than dominance which suggests A+B. No matter how you model the predictor actually works, B comes out ahead of A+B, with the caveat that the decider needs an actual decision art

If you model the predictor as being infalable (predicted choice = choice), then there there will always be agreement so taking B only becomes obvious.

If you model the predictor as having sufficient knowledge to model and evaluate the decision making process of the subject in full detail, the predictor will always be right. A player trying to model the model and chose the opposite runs into the halting problem.

If you model the predictor as a black box having a very high probability of spitting out the correct answer, you still get B.

Expected A+B = 10^3 + (1-p) * 10^6

Expected B = 10^6 * p

Expected A+B > Expected B iff:

10^-3 + 1 > 2 p

p < .5005, which for two choices couldn’t reasonably be described as a high probability of being correct.

大家好，我是臺灣人，從臺灣一個人搬家來到美國，環境很陌生，感覺很孤單。以前在臺灣幾家知名的徵信社工作過，我是一個優秀的徵信工作者，希望早點找到適合自己的工作。希望通過貴站，認識更多的朋友。