Economic heterogeneity and Latin America

“time to go long on the bovespa then?”

That’s been a great bet since 2002.

But I’ve actually reduced my Latin American holdings, even though, like Sachs, I’m bullish on Latin American long-term.

It’s just so damn hard to tell the difference between a gain in value caused by a reduction in risk premiums versus a gain caused by a speculative bubble.

My own very seat-of-pants theory is that a good fundamental gain in value from a reduction in a risk or liquidity premium often causes a speculative bubble.

Solution:
1) Title (and redistribute?) property.
2) Tax property — and nothing else. More: http://another-brilliant-idea.blogspot.com/2007/01/optimal-taxes-for-ldcs.html

Result? A group of people with incentives to protect and improve property, which generates revenue. That will reduce, but not eliminate, corruption.

Just came back from Guatemala. It’s no failed state.

Tyler, I don’t agree on the view that the government vs markets debate is over in Latin America. Unfortunatelly this debate is very alive in the region and with a strong disruptive potential.

Take a look at Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Argentina to some extent. In many countries many market are not allowed to function, and in others the dicotomy between markets and goverments is extremely evident. In Venezuela and Bolivia, governments have taken over many formerly privatized enterprises, and apparently more is to come. You can see the reaction of the private sector to these policies. While in most countries the currencies are appreciating in the Venezuela the Bolivar has been depreciating steadily. Price controls are once again all over the place. Price controls on beef for example have been in place. But this is not a problem only in Ecuador, Venezuela, Argentina and Bolivia, with explicit socialist government. Even in Colombia, in theory a right wing country, there are constant government imposed barries to the development o crucial markets. Interest rate on mortgages are regulated, as well as in other financial markets where usury laws are binding. Forced investments on financial institutions are in place. The situation is not as extreme as in other countres, given that the government has suppoorted the protection of private proverty, nontheless the message that markets should be allow to work hasn’t reached the highest government officials. So I think that the debate of governments vs markets is far than over in LAC. Hopefully, as in Brazil, the rest of the region ill able to live through the recent surge in socialism.

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