Usually an economic downturn is associated in a big increase in the
spread between corporate and Treasury yields. This spiked pretty
dramatically last week, but still has a long way to go…the current spread of 206 basis points is not much above the long-term
average or the short-term range we’ve seen over the last two years.
That’s from Jim Hamilton, here are the graphs and further discussion.
Good luck!
We used to sell a nice little T securities fund at Morgan Stanley during the “lean” years when the dow was around 7 or 8K, and money markets were getting less than 1%. They essentially traded the fund to keep the avg age at about 9 months, and the return in the neighborhood of 4%.
That’s actually an aside, but optimism to me means simply looking where else to put money.
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