This one is crude, but it cannot be dismissed:
Putin doesn’t run a country, he runs a corporation. He is the ugliest mixture of Karl Marx and Adam Smith. He is not interested in restoring the Russian influence, he’s just interested in Gazprom’s and Rosneft’s influence. Actually, Putin is destroying the Russian state. If we look at the functions of the state, they are gradually transferred to the state companies: now the Duma voted that Gazprom and Rosneft can have its own armies. These so-called state companies are run by Putin and his KGB-buddies – him being a sort of "capo di tutti capi". And for those doing business with KGB Inc., I remind them that the KGB shareholders are very active shareholders.
That’s Garry Kasparov, here is one commentator summarizing:
In Kasparov’s view, the main goal of Russian foreign policy is to raise the oil price, no matter what – that’s why the tensions in the Middle East are so important to Putin…
We live in a nice world, no? Megan McArdle ponders life or death incentives in the former Soviet Union. Here is the excellent New Yorker article on Kasparov.
This expalanation seems correct to me when coupled with the fact that Putin won’t/can’t be re-elected as President. KGB Inc is playing with fire and only way to stop lightning falling on their heads is to have some grip over the political machinery when they don’t directly control the political machinery in the future so as to prevent future recriminations over thier activies in the present.
The Russian people however couldn’t care less as long as there is a semblance of stability, a steady drumbeat of nationalism and rising living standards afforded by an investment boom driven mainly by macro stability which in turn is anchored by oil exports. When the oil price finaly collapses 5, 10, 15? years from now Russia will have a much higher standard of living but severe social inequities.
From within inside it looks really strange sometimes. For example, pro Putin organizations promote writing of Parshev, a man who wrote books on such topics as “why russia is not america” – and do you know why – because of harsh climate. To cure problem the man recommended to close country like North Korea ( or harsh. Another book of this person – ‘why America concurs others’ ( the book was written before Iraq war ) and the answer was – because there will be an end for oil and America pursue goal to have a safe oil in future. BTW Parshev is ex KGB man too and he respected as ‘patriot’ who argues for rule of ‘right nation oriented persons’ ( though dreaming to make a country like North Korea could hardly have something related to patriotism).
but also they promote idea to increase of foreign investments.
Together it looks like pure schizophrenia and also hints – the state rules have so strange goals, so that they not even attempt to develop clean explanations for their steps.
For my opinion the biggest problem is lack of foreign language skills for most of population, and thus ( with government controlled TV and most radio stations ) Putin and Co could relatively easily promote their ill ideas.
Kasparov wrong in goals in respect to oil prices. Kremlin claims that optimal price would be $45 per barrel and seems this are sincere words.
But I would rather support him in his idea to offer simple explanations for general public which could stir problems for Putin.
Kasparov is basically a very intelligent nut, Russian answer to Bobby Fischer. Tomash mentioned his strange views of history. If oil prices were low, he would explain that KGB worked hard to push them down for their benefit (I have no idea how he would explain it).
Parshev main idea was that climate influenced Russian history. In this he is probably similar to Jared Diamond. But he is taking this idea way too far. He is certainly not very influential. Yes, some pro-Putin groups promote him, but some anti-Putin groups promote him too and most ignore him.
> Together it looks like pure schizophrenia and also hints
Sergey, this is obvious: there are a lot of players in Russia, many of them have different and conflicting goals. The only way to avoid appearance of schizophrenia is to clamp down like in Stalin times. Is not US schizophrenic from outside?
Just for the record — I am mildly pro-Putin. He did an Ok (alas, not excellent job) in last 8 years.
> But I would rather support him in his idea to offer simple explanations for general public which could stir problems for Putin.
This seems irresponsible to me. Down with Putin whatever the cost and it is Ok to lie to public for this lofty goal. Another replay of 1917 would not be beneficial.
What most people don’t know is that this happened several times on our side. I lived near a BMEWs radar system that detected a Soviet “attack† on Oct 5th, 1960. Later I interviewed an engineer who worked there (and described the false alarm as harrowing). The Soviet “attack† was actually just the moon rising over Norway. See NORAD’s Canadian Deputy Commander, Roy Slemon, A Nuclear Hero and Nuclear Apocalypse Near Misses. The Jan 25, 1995 incident was particularly scary for the Russians, because the rocket (fired for research purposes) launch was just minutes from Moscow, giving them no time to determine if a war had started or not. Note that we had notified the Russians in advance of the impending launch. However, the information had not been disseminated.
sa: “When the oil price finally collapses 5, 10, 15? years from now …”
What could bring about the collapse of the oil price? A new, scalable liquid fuel with high power density? Maybe, but that isn’t going to happen in that timescale. No, Russia is going to become wealthy, perhaps one of the wealthiest nations on earth – slow development of oil fields was a problem when it happened, but now, as most nations outside the middle east have peaked, they get it back with very good interest!
If Putin’s successors don’t manage to stay popular, it will be though gross incompetence only.
—
You know, the mess in Russia is partly your fault – I’m speaking to you right-wing economists. It was your book Yeltsin took pages from when his economic reforms gave democracy a bad name over there.
Sergey, this is obvious: there are a lot of players in Russia, many of them have different and conflicting goals. The only way to avoid appearance of schizophrenia is to clamp down like in Stalin times. Is not US schizophrenic from outside?
no not a lot players with conflicting views. These are the same persons which promote both. Take Surkov, who created Nashi and invited there both Parshev and Sergey Kara Murza ( former communist ideologist ) and who speaks on foreign investments ( and also tell stories on how Finland wants to annexe Russian territories with Finnish population ). This is what I mean under schizophrenia including observing how lose who rubbed Russian population now claim to be their defenders ( against fictional US threats ).
Again – Kasparov is out of road, still it is very important that there are people who challenge Putin ( and Surkov ). Without this pro fascist Surkov’s rethoric might deeper affect life in Russia.
Personally I dislike when uneducated ( Surkov did not have formal highter education ) devises stories on that Russians have century old unchangeable values ( while sociologist observe shift in values all over the world ).
I think that Russia will become true democracy much earlier, that it was predicted here. The reasons will be those shifts in values due to more affluent life, more information etc. But to facilitate faster move to democracy we need such strange people like Kasparov. BTW sociologist observed that fight in society facilitates it’s development http://margaux.grandvinum.se/SebTest/wvs/SebTest/wvs/articles/folder_published/publication_483/files/JCS1.pdf
.
calling “Nashi’ pro-fascist is giving them too much credit. They are not that menacing.
I do not call them pro fascist it is Surkov who is fascist
http://farma-sohn.livejournal.com/57683.html . The person who writes is well known professor of philosophy, who does not disclosure his identity, but he got a response in a site run by Gleb Pavlovsky
http://www.russ.ru/politics/docs/surkov_i_fashizm
( sorry to readers for Russian language links ).
It really something special that people from Kremlin do use old fascist ideas, even taking into account whatever modern interpretations of old ideas might be.
And without Kasparov Surkov and Co might move even further. They are governed by greed and desire to make safe robbed treasures. So there should be counter balances.
What could bring about the collapse of the oil price?
Widespread synfuel production from coal.
Well it’s pretty clear that Putin will not be able to run for president for the third time in a row so he created new and leveraged existing State corporations (like Gazprom, United Aviation Corporation, etc) to move there (with some of his KGB friends), as these corporations are now rather independent entities.
Many in Russia now believe that the 2008 elections will be won by some weak and Putin-loyal guy who will be impeachment-ed in a year or so just for Putin to come back in 2009 (now he will have the right for it — it’s not three terms in a row). Given that the Parliament is severely dominated by United Russia (Putin’s party), this scenario is not that unrealistic,especially combined with the above paragraph.
Why would the Russian elite eat this? Because no one there really wants Putin to leave — they all have established connections and more or less secured positions (in the government, parliament, state corporations or elsewhere). Everyone understands that the new president (even from the same party) would bring his friends to powerful positions and no one wants such a shakeup. Everyone here wants stability. Even at a cost of murders of those unloyal, radical nationalism, etc.
We’re still light years away from what you mean by democracy, and we’re not really heading in this direction. Bureaucracy, corruption, authoritarism is the way to go. I wasn’t politically conscious in the 90-s (I was born in ’87) but I just see that nothing really changes here for the better.
P. S. I hope The Economist or someone finally publishes a story covering what’s going on in Sochi now that they know Olympics will be held there. Then you would definitely understand how things work here…
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