Jason Kottke reports:
Ben Tesch is about to launch a collaborative weather site called cumul.us.
It’ll aggregate weather information and harness the wisdom of crowds to
see if they can make better weather predictions than the experts.
Will this all work? Who knows, but it only took me two months to make, and I wanted to find out.
Unlike so many other types of information, the web has had little
impact on how weather reporting is done (the Weather Channel stuff is
still rudimentary), so it’ll be interesting to see if this works.
I predict this will fail — how many government agencies already work at predicting the weather?, or in other words the crowd is already in place. The alternative hypothesis is that weather forecasting awaits its Orley Ashenfelter, and that a mechanism like this will bring the best nerdy, quantitative "amateur" forecast into public prominence.