Now he tells us

I like watching Cramer because it’s fun watching a guy who always seems nanoseconds away from having a massive aneurysm. But I never listen to his investment advice. I’ve been buying index funds since I had money to invest.

It’s an odd irony to me that a guy like me who has such an intrinsic (theoretically and emprically founded) acceptance of the EMH ended up working as a long-range forecaster. I may have sold my soul, but I got a very good price for it.

In a typical US recession, the S&P 500 falls by an average of 28% (I’d post a link to Nouriel Roubini roubini/232729 to back up that statistic, but the anti-spam filter has gotten extremely trigger-happy).

The probability of a recession is estimated at 50% by Alan Greenspan and 75% by John Bogle of Vanguard, among others. Hold off on that index fund.

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now, is to wake up every day to drink å’–å•¡, shopping. I hope that early awareness of Boles.
thanks,thank very much.

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