Applications to take the GRE are down and that means the number of graduate students is unlikely to rise, in contrast to the traditional pattern of greater graduate school attendance during recessions. Here are a few hypotheses:
Stewart has several theories about why declines may be taking place
this year, despite historic trends. She said it was possible, as ETS
officials suggested, that the credit crunch was making it more
difficult for students to borrow – or that hearing about the crunch
discouraged some from trying. In that same vein, she said that with
many colleges and universities announcing budget cuts, many departments
may not have the same levels of funds to offer in fellowship support.In addition, she said that while economic uncertainty in the past
has prompted some people to decide to improve their skills so they can
seek better jobs, the turmoil is so great this year that “no one will
leave a job if they have a job – they think the risk is too much to
take.”Stewart also stressed that just because the surge in interest in
graduate school has not happened this year doesn’t mean it won’t start.
Many people these days are experiencing “freezing behavior” where they
are so uncertain about their next move and the state of the economy
that they aren’t making any changes, she noted. “It could be that this
has created a temporary pause where we would have normally seen a flow
to graduate school. That the flow hasn’t started doesn’t mean it won’t.”
I opt for paragraph #2. How about all of you? Are you in this position yourselves?
Testing…
Another reason. Hiring for international students will be dismal in a scenario like this. There are enough stories about people having to leave since no one will sponsor a visa any more, atleast for most industries.
Contrary to popular belief, career options for international students in engineering programs is not very broad. A *lot* of american companies do not hire international students any time. Most do not even interview in hard times (since visas are also hard to come by these years).
The point of an american education is harder to see if you dont have an american job at the end of it.
#2 sounds like me. Although I took the GMATs right out of school.
The international students issue is relevant. The dollar has actually appreciated quite a bit very recently, which combined with deteriorating economic conditions outside the US might be a factor.
Might it not also be that the severity of the crisis has only become apparent in the last couple of months and this hasn’t yet managed to filter through into application statistics. If people thought the economy would recover in Q4 as we were being told, they wouldn’t have been too worried.
My decision had nothing to do with finances. I simply opted to work in Africa for a bit instead, and am leaving at the end of February.
Anecdotally, I can say that most of my peers (and I) at a certain quasi-governmental institution are planning to send in applications for graduate school next fall; most are taking the GRE in the next few months, or have taken it recently.
Perhaps rates of application to graduate school will display quite a lot of sectoral variability.
A lot of people who go to graduate school do so while working and the company will pick up all or part of the tab. As companies scale back and look to cut their budgets, many are cutting their educational assistance. I think that may be a contributing factor as well.
The article notes that GMAT demand is up.
The numbers also indicate that more than 100% of the overall decline in GRE applications can be accounted by the decline in applications from India.
So maybe the story has to do with India and PhD programs more specifically, rather than U.S. graduate school applications generally.
In my experience, funding is something to worry about after taking the GREs and receiving acceptance letters.
I believe negative propaganda about the intensity of graduate programs coupled with post-grad income averages is the greatest deterrent. Competition to get into grad programs has created a class of student which has endured two years of intense undergraduate work (math and econ double degrees) with exceptional grades. These students, who had wanted to to spend an additional 3 years+ at a program, are “burnt out”. They possess the skills to enter the workforce now, making 70% of the expected wage after obtaining a PhD. In three years time, they have the same potential earnings as if they had a PhD, but without enduring the rigors of graduate school.
I would be happy to see a decrease in PhD program applicants, but the GRE is taken for all masters programs, most of which are unfunded. Many firms pay for continuing education, but with a decrease in jobs, maybe employers are working the remaining employees harder. In an effort to stay employed, the smart employees who generally go for a masters would postpone.
And I like Dan’s point about money. Increased demand has increased the pricetag on a degree. Are prices too high? $150,000 for an MBA? Maybe.
As an undergraduate student about to begin the process of applying to grad schools this article is a very welcome read. I could always use less competition. On that note though, I think that is one of the reasons that applications are down for the GRE. Most international schools don’t require GREs and as global rankings continue to grow in both scope and recognition, applicants may be beginning an exodus from US schools to institutions in their home country.
I think there’s another factor at work — uncertainty about what advanced degrees will pay off.
In past recessions, the computer science area was a good bet. Now, not so sure. What about library science in the age of Google? What about nursing with health care costs potentially being the next bubble? And do we really need more lawyers?
I think this uncertainty keeps people frozen in place — especially given the high costs.
I took a break from finishing my Master’s of Economics in order to take an analyst job. I plan on quitting my job in January to finish school. Money is tight, and I hate to quit a job amidst such an economic downturn, but I figure if I finish school this semester or over the summer I’ll be decently positioned when the economy heats back up next year or the year after.
I did my MSc in the UK because they didn’t require a GRE. Seems a bit irresponsible, but I could attend a similarly ranked university without giving up a couple of months studying for yet another exam. and possibly flunking.
Maybe grad school applications are down because of the lack of effective ROI on the degree. Post-graduate work for all but law school and maybe some select MBA programs is a dicey proposition where graduate students most likely end up in hock in exchange for basically knowledge. Upward mobility through higher education remains largely a myth. My wife and I have three master’s degrees between us and ten years after grad school, they remain millstones on our necks.
It looks like Kevin T has figured something out here. Tyler, you are part of the establishment on the other end of this problem. Can you tell us why, with all the internet capability so widely available, and with devices such as the ‘kindle’, higher education institutions still depend on the traditional ‘book’ as the medium for transferring information in the learning process? This is just one small area where the costs are outrageous.
all this speculation is based on a proxy measure (in this case GRE test taking) rather than the actual behavior / direct measure (applications).
fact is, applications are up versus last year for my program, my university, and, anecdotally, programs at other universities.
though i will say – they are not up by as much as one would expect.
Grad Director, big state university
http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1078
A lot of seniors at my school simply didn’t realize how tough the job market would be. They were caught off guard and didn’t have the time to prepare for either the GRE or for graduate school. Many are taking the “teaching English in ______” route.
There is so much uncertainty for me, I almost took my Master’s in Economics degree and enlisted in the Army for 4 years. Its a scary world, but if worse comes to worse they always have a cot for ya.
I think #2 perhaps coupled with the fact that if you own a home right now, chances are you can’t sell it in order to go back to Grad school (at least that’s my case). I also agree with ZBicyclist about the uncertain expected value of an advanced degree right now. Would an MBA *really* be worth going back to school rather than staying put at a current job?
I took the GRE in ’02. I made perfect scores on the quantitative and analytical portions. Several accepted me. One offered funding.
Your loss, guys.
RE: Paragraph #2
Its basic poker psychology. When everyone else gets conservative, there are gains to be made by playing reckless and bluffing.
Thanks for the reminder. Just signed up
Not particularly relevant to the exact question you asked, but it would be nice if this were indicative of people just not taking the GRE but still applying to graduate schools. I thought that those tests were an absolute waste of my time.
GRE’s keep for a while, so I think we need to separate two questions: (i) is it worthwhile to take the GRE? This depends on the value of grad school relative to other options, and the value of $140 (plus all the time and money spent preparing), the value of knowing how well you do on the GRE … (ii) is it worthwhile to apply to graduate school right now? That depends on things like comparing your lifetime compensation bundles under the two alternatives, working and grad school.
It is possible that additional grad school applications this year will draw largely on people who have already taken the GRE in the last several years. People who might have taken the GRE this year may find instead that while the value of going to grad school has risen, so has the value of $140. It may now be important to resolve on grad school before, rather than after, taking the GRE. Also, I doubt many people are retaking the GRE this year (a desperate move at best, and clearly not worth it when money gets tight).
A final point… it seems now that the financial crisis has been going on forever, but remember that in October, it was still dogma among many that the economy was doing fine, monetary policy was working, few bad apples, blah blah blah. It takes months to prepare for the GRE even if you’re under-employed. If you lose your job in October, there’s no way you can take it in time for the 2008 admissions cycle.
What about a different answer? Demand is down because there is more transparency on the Internet about what graduate programs are about, and that the first post-Internet age doctoral grads have now disseminated their post-graduation experiences (on bulletin boards, social networking web sites etc.). As well the actual material taught (lecture notes, course outlines, video lectures etc.) are all posted online and so the mystery about the graduate school life has lessened, and if we are seeing reduced GRE applications, this just reflects reduced demand.
Surprised nobody has mentioned this yet -
The cost of the GRE test itself could be a deterrent. I’m not sure what’s the average number of GREs a person takes, but perhaps instead of taking 2 or 3 tests and using the best score to apply, people are simply studying harder and taking 1 test.
I managed to get a graduate degree from a certain UK school of economics without taking GREs or GMATs, so I don’t know if people usually take more than one test.
Many hard science programs, which offer full-tuition stipends, are cutting the number of available graduate seats. The stipends mostly are funded by grants which professors receive from industry or the government for whatever research they’re doing, and as industry and government grants dry up, so does tuition-funding for graduate assistants.
Odd. But the dollar is strong; maybe more US students are heading overseas? Although I don’t see why that wouldn’t be offset by international students heading for the US.
First, maybe it is GPA?
If you have below a 3.0 do really stand a chance of getting into a graduate program during a recession? The people with a 3.0 or higher probably land excellent jobs and would most likely do not want to give that job up.
Second, maybe graduate testing and applications are down because so many US schools accepted foreign undergraduate students over American undergraduate students. Now those foreign students are going to school in their home country or don’t see a value in an American education during a recession. I was in a GMAT prep class recently and half of the students were foreign. Most of the foreign students were interested in going to school in their home countries or in Europe.
Third, I wonder if the increase in GMAT test takers is due to repeats.
Yes, I saw the sentence that stated 21% of GMAT test takers repeat, but that that seems wrong and low. My GMAT prep class was filled with repeat test takers.
How many people really apply to MBA program or any other graduate program with a standardize test score below 50%? What graduate programs take people with a score at or below 50%?
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