Why is the new Springsteen album, Working on a Dream, coming out on January 27? Christmas is the big selling season. Wouldn’t lots of people want to buy this album for the holidays? Moreover, albums that debut early in the year are less likely to make the end of the year "best of the year" lists since they are soon forgotten.
True, there is surely a mixed strategy equilibrium in which some albums debut in January. After all, since most albums, like movies, will aim for a holiday release this gives the ones that come out after the holidays more shelf space and radio time all to themselves. Thus, it can’t be an equilibrium for all albums to debut at Christmas. But which ones should? Knowing that the Springsteen album is coming in January does that give us a signal of quality? Can you work out the equilibrium?
easy as pie: inauguration momentum from whatever theme-song single comes out ahead of Jan 20th plus a superbowl halftime appearance. Springsteen only sells to his fans, and only his fans buy the albums. Target them, not the season. That’s the logic.
Knowing that the Springsteen album is coming in January does that give us a signal of quality? Can you work out the equilibrium?
I’m not sure, but once I saw Springsteen at a diner, and he was eating quiche.
cgb’s rationale sounds truthy.
Also Springsteen, kind of like Pearl Jam, seems to want to do it “his way,” even if it is not optimal.
If it’s perfectly inelastic – sells to ~100% of Springsteen fans with no price-sensitivity within the normal price range for albums – it makes no odds whether it’s released before or after Christmas. So its quality to fans is irrelevant.
Amazon’s pre-order price of $15.99 tells us that they aren’t taking unusual advantage of the elasticity. That leaves us with its quality to non-fans. Perhaps the producers have reason to believe that this one might appeal to a wider audience – in which case they’re after the clearer airtime post-christmas. Perhaps it contains a Valentine-themed song?
Or maybe it’s a supply issue. If demand and price are predictable, it makes sense postpone it to an off-peak time on the CD printing presses (or whatever is a restraining factor in production).
Another thing to remember is that this year the buyer budgets at the retailers contracted (for the first year ever in some cases) and ran out early, pushing many items to the January budget that in other years would have been pushed out at Christmas. As a consequence, even some favored vendors had to schedule significant title launches in January because there was no money to put it in the warehouse before Christmas even if the product was available.
It is not just a matter of stagnating buyer budgets for the retailers of this kind of product, the buyer budgets actually shrunk at the largest retailers. Traditional holiday launches had to be cut by the vendors as a result. I do not know if this is the case with the Springsteen album in particular, but it is definitely within the realm of possibility and the vendors have been aware of this situation since the summer.
I wonder what the current figures are for actual music purchases are in the run up to Christmas vs gift cards – if the ratio is right, it could be an effective strategy to exploit an empty playing field media wise, while still capitalizing on the Christmas sales
The real money is in touring.
Therefore, the album release + Super Bowl + inauguration appearance + media coverage aren’t drowned out by holiday noise and effectively promote the upcoming US tour. (Publicity and marketing momentum being especially effective during a down-turn).
His long-time drummer will be reportedly not available starting in the summer due to his commitments to Conan’s Tonight Show: hence the tour following quickly after the album release.
Finally, a plausible substitutable good, the forthcoming U2 album is rumored to be out in February 2009 with a tour as well.
He doesn’t want Bush to get any credit.
One possibility — the release is timed to coincide with the inauguration, with some Obama/Vote for Change celebratory material included. Though I have to say, none of the song titles seem to obviously suggest that.
After working in CD/DVD retail, I can say this, sales are actually HIGHER in January than in December.
Here are the reasons a release would have an advantage in January.
1.Gift cards are purchased pre-season (Nov & Dec) however, most people do not use these gift cards until January. The sales look higher because the gift card is being bought in those months and the sale is actually recorded there , but the actual DVD’s/CD’s do not leave the store until January or February most of the time.
2. Returns, people get movies or CD’s that they already have or do not want for christmas. So these people return these products in exchange for new ones, this again does not tabulate into “sales” but merchandise is bieng moved.
3. Also, people treat others before Christmas and themselves after. Many people do not like to buy particular music/dvds for loved ones, they like more memorable gifts. Once people get that Christmas gift money, they feel to treat themselves.
4. People get stereos and DVD’s for Christmas, so they want something to watch on these new machines, so they go and buy CD/DVD in January.
As a previous manager of a DVD/CD store, January and February are much better months than November and December.
Maybe he’s going to unveil a new song at Obama’s inauguration, and use the inauguration frenzy to drive sales.
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