He praises its moderation. His conclusion is: "It could have been much worse."
by Tyler Cowen on February 20, 2009 at 7:00 am in Economics | Permalink
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In Cafe Hayek, Russell Roberts concluded his comment on Glaeser’s column by asking:
“What is the public policy justification that makes virtually all economists, even mere ardent libertarians, unwilling to say no to this madness?”
My reply was:
The only justification that E. Glaeser presents is summarized in his last sentence: “It could have been much worse.” This is how low the standard for public policy has declined, not just for Harvard economists but for most economists, even for some of your colleagues at GMU. So to answer your question I think it is the kind of herd behavior that these same economists have denounced as the source of all bubbles. Most people are an easy prey to the bully behavior of few self-appointed prophets. They may talk a lot when they are having lunch together, but to outsiders they want to show how clever they are with great ideas (most are attempts to reinvent the wheel) and at the same time that they are part of a powerful tribe.
“Many Americans understandably feel that this policy is rewarding people who took too many risks.”
Many readers of Glaeser’s column understandably feel that Glaeser chooses the weaselly method of stating that others understandably feel an obviously true statement, because Glaeser can’t work up the courage to simply state the truth directly.
I understandably feel that one could easily de-weasel the statement:
“Many Americans understandably feel that this policy is rewarding people who took too many risks, and these Americans are right.”
It could have been worse?!? What, were they planning an alternative wherein they bombed our own cities into rubble to reduce housing stock?
> “Many Americans understandably feel that this policy is rewarding people who took too many risks, and these Americans are right.”
perhaps americans were just embracing the inherent riskiness of the financial world.
“You know, not everybody who paid too much for a house was irresponsible. The housing bubble was a nationwide delusion. There were economists, bankers, and “sophisticated” investors who should have known better who shared in the delusion, so why stigmatize ordinary middle class homeowners, particularly when people have been propagandized for decades on the value of a home as an investment?”
Anybody and everybody who bought in should be stigmatized, or at the very least should eat their disastrous losses. Given our inherent tendencies to follow the crowd against our better judgment, we require especially diastrous consequences for doing so.
Keith,
You seem to be focused on the wrong things.
The question I would ask is not about the past, but about the future. Sunk costs are sunk. Mistakes were made by lots of people, resources were inefficiently allocate at the spur of Freddie and Fannie and subprime and Barnie Frank and his crowd, etc. etc.
Does any sane person now think that giving more money to Fannie and Freddie and Frank and his ilk via the US taxpayers (now and/or future) is wise?
I only wish that Ed Glaeser would have the guts to state in his column what he thinks that the government should really do, according to his book. He doesn’t address at all the fact that he thinks that housing prices need to decline further, in at least the heavily-zoned areas. Yes, it’s politically impossible, but isn’t it the role of our professoriate to point out the politically impossible truths sometimes? It’s not like he’s a presidential adviser; he’s one of the foremost experts on housing policy. He should state his honest policy recommendations.
I know he’s done so in other forums, even other NY Times articles about him. But he should shout it from the rooftops every chance he gets.
Phil,
Here’s my problem. Please convince me that any of these government interventions will halt the downward spiral rather than push it into overdrive. I haven’t seen much evidence that it will be effective. One would think that proof of effectiveness would be a requirement in justifying massive spending programs and further expansion of government, and the constant howling about the need to do “something” is not proof. In point of fact, I think history shows that interventions deepen and lengthen recessions.
You know, regardless of whether or not the bailouts (bank, mortgage, stimulus) were/are considered good ideas by the economist crowd, I’m very happy to see that they’re happening.
I feel this way because I am very interested to have another data point besides the Great Depression with which to make judgments on the efficacy of large-scale government intervention during a catastrophic economic event. Quite frankly, all of you (‘conservatives’) should feel that way too, because A) you’re not going to stop the plans from being implemented and might as well save your outrage energy and B) if they fail then your position is vindicated and you will then have reams of high-quality, high-resolution, recent data with which to prove your point from your post-apocalyptic bunker.
After having conservative, free-market, supply-side values as the guiding star of our country for the past couple decades with the consequences you see before you, I am extremely reluctant to give any weight to anti-bailout/stimulus arguments cut from that same cloth.
Hopefully this particular fiasco pushes future economists to take a more normative/institutional approach to their research. It has become apparent that the prevailing mode of economic thought is morally bankrupt without any of the practitioners even realizing it. You say its because we don’t understand economics. Recent performance indicates that it is, in fact, you who does not understand the real world.
Incentivization of common-sense morality is the biggest moral hazard. You have created a society that expects to be financially rewarded for every action taken. Example: Complaining that you’re being “punished” for not buying a house you can’t afford. This is not you being punished, nor someone else being rewarded. Would you really trade your current situation for the house-buying situation you opted out of?
In the house-buying option, you would have probably spent the last year or so in a serious state of financial unease at the enormous payments you needed to make as the value of your overvalued house plummets. Instead, you are now more secure, have lived a year without tons of stress, and are now in a better position to buy that house at a much more reasonable price.
Besides, free-market academicians and lobbyists have spent so long stealing from the pocket of the American worker in the name of the corporate bottom line that it’s about time you were forced to pay some of that unearned money back in the form of the progressive taxation that’s gonna come your way.
You say people should be rioting in the streets against this. Perhaps you should look at where protests have actually been taking place (Bank CEO houses) and read some polling data before you call for riots. Do you really want these people run out of their houses into hoovervilles?
I do not think you would like which side of said riots you would end up on.
–You know, not everybody who paid too much for a house was irresponsible.
Yes, I do know that. I too paid too much–but I was still prudent! I didn’t buy a house whose mortgage would have a rate reset, let alone one resetting when everyone else’s would. I didn’t buy a home whose mortgage was more than 28% of ONE of our dual incomes. I didn’t think “I will cash out several hundred in equity and buy plasma tvs.” I am not walking away from my home or my obligations on it, even though I lost 100k in equity and now am at break even on my mortgage.
I’m one of the irate suckers who should have bought twice as much house, should have cashed out equity for cars and tvs and eespresso machines or at least private school tuition. the housing bill screws us even more.
Who gets the money? The banks get the money. Which is good for the economy. Maybe not for intending first-home buyers. Too bad.
Reversing Marvellous Marvin Hagler, the banks have to give a little to get a lot. Enjoy paying your taxes.
Rick C: The Great Depression wasn’t exactly a recession. The Great Depression consisted of two proper recessions, (as defined by the NBER) from August 1929 to March 1933 and from May 1937 to June 1938. Between 1933 to 1937 and from 1938 to World War Two (that is, for most of FDR’s administration) the economy was growing at a pretty steady pace, but things (unemployment, whatnot) remained deeply unpleasant such that things remained “The Great Depression” even though the economy was growing.
Here’s Ed Glaeser saying what he really thinks about trying to maintain the price of housing.
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