Will writes:
My quick take is that this sucks, because the more choke points in the policymaking process the better. That said, it probably doesn’t change all that much unless Senate Dems can muster reliable intraparty unanimity. A few things that wouldn’t have passed will, and those could be an important few things, but most final votes won’t be different. The one way this hurts the Dems is that it makes a narrative of GOP obstruction less plausible, and if various things go south by the mid-terms, the Republicans can more plausibly say that all of it’s the other guy’s fault.
If the guy is willing to switch parties, he was already in the first place willing to switch policies (if indeed he needed to change his mind at all). He's suddenly lost of a lot of bargaining power (he had to hold off Pat Toomey, who presumably would have beaten him in the primary) and some of that power has been redistributed to the most conservative Democrats in the coalition. That could be an improvement.
Note also that Democratic Senators may find it harder to oppose Obama once a policy initiative is announced, so they may work harder behind the scenes, and well in advance, to shape legislation in their preferred directions or simply just kill it off. In contrast, a Republican veto-voice will be more reactive ex post.
On the marketing side, maybe now the Republicans, being denied the filibuster, will have to come up with some ideas that are actually appealing to voters outside their core constituencies.
Addendum: Here is Matt's analysis. And here is the academic evidence that voting behavior changes, following a party switch.
Link broken for “Matt’s analysis”. (It goes to Will’s analysis).
Republicans are better off without Sphincter. With friends like him…
some of that power has been redistributed to the most conservative Democrats in the coalition.
All of whom are less conservative than Specter up until now – even before he started running to the right to run against Toomey. All that running to the right suggests that he hasn’t been planning this for very long, because all of that is going to hurt him now, as the major obstacle to his reelection becomes a *Democratic* primary challenge; he can easily demolish Toomey in the general election as a sitting Dem incumbent in a blue state.
I predict Specter will heroically broker a compromise on EFCA, taking out the most-attacked provisions and coming up with something that moves the ball forward for labor, but satisfies David Broder because it’s less ambitious than the original. Democratic movers and shakers will sign on because it’s forward movement and undiluted EFCA is under a lot of attack, but a new compromise written by an ex-Republican is automatically more moderate and therefore harder to attack. Striking a compromise allows Specter to pick up unions for the Dem primary without publicly flip-flopping on EFCA (since, after all, the compromise isn’t EFCA), and once he does, he owns the problem of getting it through the Senate and onto his resume and campaign literature.
In fact, that whole paragraph was probably negotiated in advance before Specter made and announced the switch. Dems gain a seat, Specter secures both flanks, unions get as much movement as they can expect to get right now. (It’ll be interesting to see what else, if anything, Specter agreed to not obstruct, or even support, as part of this deal.)
P.S. Some voices on the left are already suggesting that Specter won’t be a real Democrat, the Dems can do better in PA, and Specter should be primaried from the left. He might try to come up with some peace offerings to secure the nomination.
Of course the Republicans filibustered on most of the legislation passed this year, though not to the point of punishing defections. I wonder if they would have in the future if no one left the party; now it is moot though it would be interesting if any others left. I would hope he would not filibuster majority legislation after his switch but it remains a possibility. I expect Republicans will be relieved to escape all future responsibility becoming the loyal opposition and to further their search for purity.
This is just the beginning of the one party state. In every state north of North Carolina, the Democratic primary is the only relevant election. If no Democratic challenges Specter in the Democratic primary, the Specter can be assured of re-election.
The next question is what happens to national politics when the Republicans reach the point of being unable to win more than 50% of the seats in the U.S.
Does it matter? Fortunately, the Democrats aren’t highly pragmatic or forward thinking fascists… the Democrats don’t seem to care that there doesn’t seem to be any way to fund all the big government they want, so long as they keep the machine going until the next election. The U.S. government is at it’s breaking point, and the Democrats have seized power just in time to take responsibility for the inevitable Soviet-style crash. Sure, Republicans all the way back to Reagan are just as responsible for our economic woes as the Democrats, but the Democrats painted the Republicans as small government radicals, it is going to be hard for the Democrats to suddenly convince people that the Republicans have been big government socialists all along.
I mean, someone said that lower taxes and lower spending and economic liberty aren’t that popular, but it doesn’t really matter. People don’t get to vote away economic suicide any more than they get to vote away gravity. Not a single person here can explain how all this massive expansion of government is going to work… they act as if a smug comments about Libertarians hating the poor is going to pay for nationalizing health care while invading several more countries.
Government *WILL* get smaller folks… the only choice we have is to do it slowly and in such a way that it minimizes the hardships for the most vulnerable, or do we wait to become another Soviet Union.
“At his press conference today he was pretty open about the nakedly opportunistic motives…”
Once politicians admit that all the jokes about them are true, this is like a guy who comes right out and asks for sex for money? Where is the romance? The winks, while he pretends to feel our pain. Now what happens? I guess we have to decide if we want to be whores or not.
Matt calls the flat tax wingnuttery. Silly ninniness aside (I am not so much bothered by name calling), he doesn’t get that we are getting the flat tax one new AMT filer at a time, and probably a few born again conservatives each tax day. Thanks be to God.
As a resident of Pennsylvania, I find Arlen Defector to have one overwhelming
attribute: ARROGANCE. He thumbs his nose at the the “jury” that would have
deposed him and he can avoid that. He’s done nothing in his multiple decades
to stem Pennsylvania’s preciptious decline and he can avoid the electorate,
but not history.
However an 80ish guy who had a bout
with serious cancer acting like getting to 2010 is a given, let alone the end of
another term, is truly an egomaniac in denial.
What the hell is it with the Senate that it attracts so many walking corpses?
Specter stated just weeks ago that he would never change parties — in spite of all the imploring he was receiving to do so — because it was in the national interest to have a credible minority party to challenge the majority’s initiatives.
Today he is totally unapologetic about the fact that he switched solely because he would lose his primary and wants another term (at age 79).
This demonstrates the Universal First Rule of Politics: Every politician really, sincerely, and truly wants what is best for the nation … as his/her SECOND priority after doing whatever it takes to get elected or re-elected.
(The logic is irrefutable: How can one help the nation from an elected position if one isn’t elected?)
This explains, for instnace, the perpetual public hand-wringing by politicians over the ever-growing national debt, even as they vote to increase the unfunded liabilities of the US at present value to $50 trillion … $53 trillion … $55 trillion … etc.
“Oh Lord, let me become fiscally responsible, but not until after the next election.”
It explains a whole lot more too, of course.
This is just the beginning of the one party state. In every state north of North Carolina, the Democratic primary is the only relevant election.
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