A theory of Fed announcements

by on July 3, 2009 at 6:13 pm in Political Science | Permalink

If you've been paying attention, the Fed likes to release bad news
after the markets close on Friday afternoon. The past couple weeks,
they've announced the failures of small regional banks.

Well today [referring to a Friday], they announced something just a little bit bigger – the government bailout/takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
the two large mortgage finance guarantors. The markets have been
expecting this for a while, but obviously not everyone was expecting it
as their stock prices were $5.50 and $4 respectively when the market
closed today. If everyone was expecting this, then those prices would
have been a lot closer to zero.

Here is more.

anonymous July 3, 2009 at 6:26 pm

Uh, fall 2008 called, it wants its news story back? Did this post get stuck in a time warp?

mr yesterday July 3, 2009 at 6:37 pm

nice effort. old news. did you hear kennedy was shot?

Thomas July 3, 2009 at 7:00 pm

I’m not convinced. The resignation itself is news that she probably wants to downplay even if she is running–quitting isn’t usually a qualification for the next spot. But if she does want to run, she has to quit, largely because Alaska is simply too far from New Hampshire for her to do both.

Bob Murphy July 3, 2009 at 7:40 pm

Is Tyler saying Sarah Palin runs the Federal Reserve? Is she a Mason?

anon July 3, 2009 at 8:51 pm

Well then why did Donald Rumsfeld announce the pentagon couldn’t account for 2.3 trillion dollars on a Monday in 2001?

Because he was trying to blame it on the Clinton Administration?

Monday July 3, 2009 at 9:02 pm

I didn’t say that he stole the money, I said he released bad news on a Monday. Will anyone disagree that it is in fact bad news? Why Monday instead of Friday?

You can fire Ad hominem attacks at me all day, the fact remains that 911 was an inside job, this is just one of the many pieces of evidence.

Sunset Shazz July 4, 2009 at 12:44 am

Tyler is, I believe, trying to illustrate how (1) the Fed remains opaque under Bernanke, and (2) how extraordinary events are perceived at the time.

With regard to (1), recall that after the recent FOMC text was published, the Fed gave the real news a day letter on their website, namely a reduction of TAF, TSLF and PDCF. This was far more material than the extention of ZIRP, which was the substance of the FOMC statement.

As for (2) – I recall being at a barbecue that Sunday, and expressing with awe that Fannie and Freddie had been taken under conservatorship. Nobody else seemed too rattled. The following week when Lehman, AIG and Merrill went down, with prime brokerage clients worried about Goldman and Morgan Stanley, I think people finally understood.

Now think about the rumors, yesterday, of a bank holding company borrowing at 700 bp in the interbank market.

passivelyrevolting July 4, 2009 at 2:18 am

Drunk blogging again Prof. Cowen?

In all seriousness, this is either completely over everyone’s head or a date error.

passivelyrevolting July 4, 2009 at 2:29 am

@Monday

Actually most of the evidence points to the jewsmcbushhitler planting the current 9/11 truthers in order to marginalize them because of their insipid natures. That way they could deflect more effectively from the fact that they have been responsible for all conflict between man for the past 4000 years!

Andrew July 4, 2009 at 7:09 am

Bob, maybe she’s going to take Bernanke’s place, continuing Obama’s strategy of placing powerful women where they can’t do any damage.

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